Mets 2009 rotation: Could it be identical to 2008's?

It seems inevitable that the Mets will sign Oliver Perez, and Jon Heyman at SI reports that Omar Minaya's undying love for Pedro Martinez may lead to a contract. I know I've said it before, but it is time to cut ties with Pedro. There's nothing more to say about that possibility. Also, assuming Ollie is signed for $10 million a year and Pedro $4 million (plus incentives?), I'd estimate team payroll to be around $140 million. This just about confirms that no significant upgrades would be made at the corner OF position.

The strategy for the rotation appears to be similar to the corner OF strategy. Why sign an impact player (i.e. Adam Dunn) when you can have Cory Sullivan, Rob Mackowiak, and Angel Pagan? Why acquire a front-line starting pitcher (i.e. Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, or Javier Vazquez) when you can have Oliver Perez, Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Pedro Martinez? I liked the Redding and Garcia contracts, but only if coupled with a Lowe or Sheets signing. Lowe is now a Brave, and it doesn't seem like Sheets-to-the-Mets is likely.

If the 2009 rotation is Santana-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine-Martinez/Redding/Garcia, it projects to be identical or slightly worse than 2008's:

The projections seem reasonable except Pedro's, which I think is too generous. The bullpen has been upgraded, but not by as much as one would think. The lineup also projects the same or slightly worse than 2008. I'll hold off until the team is finalized before judging Omar Minaya, but at this point it doesn't seem like 2009 Mets will be better than the 2008 Mets.

FIP+ and the 2009 Mets rotation

A pitching statistic I have frequently used here is FIP (“fielding independent pitching”). It is superior to ERA for pitcher evaluation, as it removes the variables a pitcher has no control over – defense, bullpen, and luck. Instead, it focuses on outcomes the pitcher controls – strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. It is measured on the same scale as ERA and is better for predicting future performance. Read more about it in the pitching stat glossary section on the top right of the page. FIP+ adjusts a player’s FIP for league and park factors, similar to OPS+ and ERA+. A FIP+ of 100 is league average; a FIP+ of 110 is 10% better than league average. Let’s take a look at the 2008 FIP, FIP+, and ERA of the 2009 Mets starters and prospective Mets starters:

To summarize:
a) I hate to say it, but Johan Santana’s ERA in 2008 was somewhat lucky. His left-on-base % (LOB %) was unsustainably high. Coming off knee surgery, I think his ERA will regress in 2009. Then again, Citi Field may be a pitcher’s park in the mold of Petco Park so maybe his ERA will remain sub-3.00.
b) Derek Lowe was outstanding in 2008. His FIP was 3rd in the league behind Tim Lincecum and Danny Haren. He almost certainly won’t be able to repeat that performance, considering ’08 was a contract year and he’s 35 years old. I still think he’ll be a top tier pitcher for the next couple years – his 2009 Marcel projection has him at a 3.67 FIP. Compare to Santana, who is projected at 3.60 or C.C. Sabathia at 3.16.
c) Oliver Perez was 9% worse than league average in 2008, his contract year. This worries me. Tell me again why he’s worth $12 million a year? Don’t get me wrong – I like Ollie. I just don’t want the Mets to overpay for talent, especially in this off-season of bargains (Yankees signings excluded).
d) As I’ve posted previously, my ideal feasible 2009 Mets rotation would be Santana, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, and Redding, with Niese expected to make a few starts. Let’s see how this group’s FIP+ stacks up with those of the 2008 Phillies and Cubs, the top 2 teams in the NL last year:

Obviously we can’t expect these pitchers to perfectly match their 2008 performance. However, coupled with an improved bullpen and one of the top offenses in the league, the 2009 Mets would look pretty strong with this rotation.

Thanks to BtB for the FIP+ numbers.

Projected Starting Rotation

With 19 games remaining, here is the Mets schedule the rest of the way, with projected starting pitcher:

Tue, Sept 9 vs. Nationals - Oliver Perez
Wed, Sept 10 vs. Nationals - Mike Pelfrey
Fri, Sept 12 vs. Braves - Johan Santana
Sat, Sept 13 vs. Braves - Pedro Martinez
Sun, Sept 14 vs. Braves - Oliver Perez
Mon, Sept 15 @ Nationals - Mike Pelfrey
Tue, Sept 16 @ Nationals – (FIFTH STARTER)
Wed, Sept 17 @ Nationals - Johan Santana
Thu, Sept 18 @ Nationals - Pedro Martinez
Fri, Sept 19 @ Braves – Oliver Perez
Sat, Sept 20 @ Braves - Mike Pelfrey
Sun, Sept 21 @ Braves – (FIFTH STARTER)
Mon, Sept 22 vs. Cubs - Johan Santana
Tue, Sept 23 vs. Cubs - Pedro Martinez
Wed, Sept 24 vs. Cubs - Oliver Perez
Thu, Sept 25 vs. Cubs - Mike Pelfrey
Fri, Sept 26 vs. Marlins – (FIFTH STARTER)
Sat, Sept 27 vs. Marlins - Johan Santana
Sun, Sept 28 vs. Marlins – Pedro Martinez

So that’s 4 starts each for Perez, Big Pelf, Pedro and Johan, and 3 starts for the unknown-at-this-point 5th starter. The 5th starter would probably be Jon Niese, Nelson Figueroa, or bronze medalist Brandon Knight.

Now, this is assuming no extenuating circumstances (i.e. injuries, going to a 4 man rotation, etc.). Hypothetically, how nice does it look having Johan pitch that last game of the season? Contrast with Tom Glavine’s “disappointing, not devastating” final game last year. Of course, Met fans would love it if the last regular season game at Shea was played with the playoffs clinched.

***EDIT***: Courtesy of MetsBlog, Adam Rubin at the Daily News reports that Johan and Pedro will switch rotation spots Friday and Saturday against the Braves. Johan will be going on normal rest. I updated the rest of the projected rotation, so please disregard the previous paragraph about Johan being scheduled for Sept. 28. I am now frightened at the prospect of Pedro starting the last game, assuming it still means something in the NL East race.