Burrell and Bradley sign: How will this affect the Mets?

Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley signed contracts today with the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Why should Met fans care? Because these signings, along with the previous Raul Ibanez signing by the Phillies, will affect the Mets pursuit of an upgrade in LF. The major options left on the market are Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez. Let's compare these 6 players based on what they're worth and what some of them have already signed for. The column "WV $ in '08" is how much each player was worth in 2008 based on the win value system at FanGraphs. The column "BtB $ Value" is how much Beyond the Boxscore valued the player at heading into free agency. Neither of these measures is 100% infallible, but they're pretty good for our purposes:

It looks like Burrell and Bradley were signed for less than what they're actually worth. Bradley is a perpetual injury risk (he's played more than 101 games just twice in the last 7 years) and head case, but when he plays he can dominate (163 OPS+ in 2008). The Ibanez contract is at best a fair contract. Though it looks worse and worse after the bargain signings of Burrell and Bradley.

Considering these facts, it appears the Mets are in the driver's seat should they decide to pursue a defensive challenged LF. Could Dunn be had for 2-3 years and $8-9 million per? How about Abreu for 1 year, $7 million? Ramirez already turned down a 2 year, $45 million offer from the Dodgers, so I'm pretty sure he can't be had at a discount. Another option that several other Met fans have kicked around is Rocco Baldelli. He's a right-handed hitter with some medical/injury problems, but might be worth a risk for 1 year and $3 million or so. Plus Rocco seems to have a decent understanding of statistics, which is a plus in my book. I'd love to have Dunn playing LF in 2009 and then 1B in 2010, as I've covered over and over and over again. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Omar Minaya and the Mets have any interest.

The nightmare is over!!! Phillies sign Raul Ibanez

The Phillies have supposedly signed OF Raul Ibanez to a 3 year, $30 million contract. I couldn't be happier, as the Mets will not be able to sign him and give up another draft pick. I previously wrote that Ibanez is basically an older and left-handed hitting Pat Burrell, so the Phillies lineup should be about the same.

Omar Minaya recently said:

"Before I start moving my dollars to offense, I've got to move my dollars to pitching."

I agree with his thinking, and let's hope this rumored trade for #5 starter and innings eater Jason Marquis is coupled with a free agent signing of Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe. Unlikely, but if Omar acquires Marquis he absolutely must also get a top-of-the-line starter. Marquis and Jon Niese will not cut it at the back of the rotation.

Winter Meetings Day 2, featuring K-ROD

Today's developments from the Winter Meetings at the Bellagio:

1) "The New York Mets have reached an agreement in principle with All-Star closer Francisco Rodriguez on a three-year, $37 million contract. The deal includes a $14 million vesting option for a fourth year that would raise the total value of the contract to $51 million."

Eh. The Mets get a proven closer and they do it early this offseason. I hate the 4th year vesting option - that's just too much $$ for a closer. FanGraphs is mixed on the signing but Beyond the Boxscore likes it. Omar Minaya has sent a message to the fans that he's not messing around this offseason with the bullpen, and I guess like that. But Omar - your job is far from over.

2) "The Mets inquired on [Texas Rangers SS] Michael Young"

No, thank you. Young is a 32 and owed a mind-boggling $16 million a year through 2013 (and we Met fans thought the Luis Castillo contract was silly). He would play 2B, assuming Castillo is traded. Young went .284/.339/.402 in 2008, doesn't steal many bases (though his SB% is strong), and has never posted a UZR better than -3.7 since becoming a full time major leaguer. Let's forget this "inquiry" ever happened.

3) "The Philles, Mets, and Cubs appear to have separated themselves from the pack of teams pursuing outfielder Raul Ibanez."

For the one thousandth time, please no. Click here for more on why not. I honestly don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to sign Ibanez, but the nonstop reports of Mets interest are scary.

4) Former Mets Kris Benson and Scott Erickson are attempting comebacks

Good for them?

Raul Ibanez: An older and left-handed version of Pat Burrell

I'm a little late to the game here, as other Mets blogs have covered the Mets' strong interest in signing Raul Ibanez. The general consensus is that it really does not make sense to go after him to play LF. (Side note: About 2 months ago, I was in favor of signing him, but I changed my mind after doing some more research).

These are the facts:
1) Ibanez is 36 and bats left-handed. The Mets have a greater need for righties.
2) He's durable and consistent - put him down for 150 games and a .285/.350/.480 line.
3) He is awful defensively (4th worst LF in baseball from '06-'08)
4) Factoring offense and defense, he was the 14th best LF in baseball in 2008, behind luminaries like David Dejesus and Willie Harris.

I'm fine with the LF platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in 2009. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are free agents next off-season; wait until then to find a long term solution for the position. However, if the Mets are set on signing a poor-fielding LF for about a 3-year deal this offseason, why not go after right-handed Pat Burrell? Take a look at how they stacked up in 2008:

To recap:
1) They were almost exactly the same player, and their career numbers are very similar.
2) Burrell is younger and bats right-handed.
3) Burrell will likely be pricier, but not so much that he would break the bank.

Let me make it clear - I'm not advocating signing "Pat the Bat". I'm simply saying that if the Mets decide to sign a LF, they should go after Burrell instead of Ibanez.