Links: Interview, Grading the Offseason, Evans to 2B, and Dusty Baker hilarity

Some links to check out while wondering if the 17 lbs. Marlon Anderson lost this offseason will improve his 2008 OPS+ of 40:

1) I did an interview with Brian Joura at Mets Online about the 2009 Mets outlook. I answered questions about the Mets injury worries, whether the bullpen is as good as it seems, lineup formation and my prediction for the Mets W-L record. Brian also writes for Fangraphs and his work at both sites is highly recommended.

2) Sam at Amazin' Avenue grades the Mets offseason by looking at the projected WAR ("wins above replacement") of the players acquired and lost. It's a better approach for evaluating the offseason then the dozens of other subjective "report cards" by analysts like Jon Heyman. Heyman rated the Phillies offseason at #1, mainly because they locked up Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to multi-year deals. That's all well and good, but their only major addition was Raul Ibanez, who they grossly overpaid.

3) Mets Fever noticed that Nick Evans is listed as 3rd on the Mets depth chart at 2nd base, per mets.com. It's an interesting possibility, because it seems Evans doesn't have a position. He isn't a good enough hitter to be valuable at 1B, and his OF defense is suspect.

4) Beyond the Boxscore announced the winner of their graph contest, and it's hilarious. It's a flowchart which takes you into the mind Dusty Baker. Fans of the late FireJoeMorgan know how terrible Baker's baseball analysis is and will especially appreciate it. But anyone who's heard Dusty announce a game and mention "clogging the basepaths" can have a laugh as well.

The difference between the Mets and Phillies in 2008

This post is about 1.5 months too late. David Wright and Jose Reyes could've used it when everyone wanted their heads on a platter following the final game of the season. I think calmer heads have prevailed, and Met fans generally realize that trading one of the "core" (Wright, Reyes, and Carlos Beltran) would be unnecessary and stupid. I present the hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching stats for the Mets and Phillies in 2008. The Phillies postseason stats are not counted:

To summarize:
a) The Mets and Phillies scored the exact same number of runs.
b) The Mets starting pitchers were slightly better than the Phils', and pitched a few more innings.
c) The Phils' bullpen was far superior to the Mets' bullpen.

The Phillies had a great bullpen, made the playoffs, and won the World Series. They were praised as "gritty" and "determined" and whatever other meaningless adjective you want use. The Mets had a garbage bullpen and missed the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. They were branded "choke artists" and "un-clutch" and "TRADE REYES HE DANCES TOO MUCH OMG OMG" and "TRADE WRIGHT HE ISN'T CLUTCH THIS TEAM NEEDS A SHAKEUP."

This all said - go out and improve that pitching staff Omar Minaya!

Phillies announcer: "See ya New York!"

Congratulations to the Phillies on winning the World Series. You earned it. I still hate you, but you earned it.

The Phillies' obsession with publicly mocking the Mets has hit an all time high. First, there was the Shane Victorino/Jose Reyes home run celebration thing. Next, Phillies GM Pat Gillick bizarrely claimed the Phillies success was aided by the fact everyone in the NL East hates the Mets' guts. Now we have Phillies announcer Harry Kalas publicly dissing the Mets. Bart Hubbuch from the New York Post writes:

"Longtime Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas taunted the Mets during the on-field ceremony at Citizens Bank Park tonight after Philadelphia's 4-3 win over Tampa Bay in Game 5, screaming, "See ya, New York!" as part of a fan tribute shown on the Jumbotron."

Give me a break. I'd expect this from a 12 year-old who just won the town little league championship, not from a 72 year-old man who's been in baseball for decades. Not even at his most ridiculous would I expect this from even Keith Hernandez. Whatever. You stay classy Philadelphia!!

Game 5: Battle of bullpens

Game 5 of the World Series presents a fun scenario. We almost never see a baseball game played in 2 separate installments, much less in the championship round. Tonight's play is likely to last about 1.5 hours barring extra innings, and has a special sense of urgency for both teams, moreso for the Rays obviously. The performance of each team’s bullpen will likely determine the outcome. Listed here are the regular season stats of each team’s “big guns” – the guys I expect to pitch tonight. Rays bullpen vs. Phillies bullpen – WHO YA GOT?

Rays:
Grant Balfour – 58.1 IP, 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.42 K/BB, 0.46 HR/9
Chad Bradford – 59.1 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.13 K/BB, 0.46 HR/9
J.P Howell – 89.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, 0.60 HR/9
David Price – 14 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB, 0.64 HR/9

Phillies:
Chad Durbin – 87.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.80 K/BB, 0.51 HR/9
Brad Lidge – 69.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.63 K/BB, 0.26 HR/9
Ryan Madson – 82.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB, 0.65 HR/9
J.C. Romero – 59 IP, 2.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1.37 K/BB, 0.76 HR/9

I didn't realize how nasty Balfour was this year. Those are some stellar numbers. It pains me to say it, but I pick the Phillies to win it tonight. Lidge is outstanding, and Madson (AKA “The Bridge to Lidge” – I didn’t come up with it but can’t remember where I read it) has been stellar this postseason. Additionally, the game is in Philly, and the Rays offense has 9 outs available while the Phils have 12.

All that being said – go Rays! I wouldn’t mind seeing a recreation of the above picture, substituting Carlos Pena for Albert Pujols.

Quote of the day, and Game 5 thoughts

Rays OF Rocco Baldelli had this to say about the Rays struggles in the World Series:

"It's such a small sample size in the playoffs. You can't judge a team by that. You can't play your best baseball every single game."

I couldn't have said it better myself Rocco. Players go through hot streaks and slumps throughout the regular season, and the playoffs are no different. Unfortunately for the Rays, they've hit a slump in the World Series. Yes, the playoffs are the biggest stage, the pressure is on, players have to be clutch, blah blah blah, but in the end the game is exactly the same from Opening Day through October.

I'm interested to see how the Rays and Phillies handle their pitching situations tonight. Charlie Manuel and Joe Maddon have hinted that the game will be handed over to the bullpen, rather than starting pitchers like Brett Myers, James Shields, and Matt Garza.

Expect to see Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Brad Lidge for the Phillies, and Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Chad Bradford, and David Price for the Rays.

Boo-Hoo: The Phillies are upset!!!

The Phillies are upset because only the starting lineups were introduced before Game 1 of the World Series. Reserves and coaches did not have their names announced. Let's here what "true Phillie" Matt Stairs thinks about this:

"It's disappointing and some guys were extremely mad about it," Stairs said early Friday evening after the team's workout at Citizens Bank Park. "I think it's bootleg when you have the World Series and guys are jogging out to the line and they don't take the extra five minutes to introduce the players... This should be a big issue."

Poor Matt. What does "Mr. 0-10" Jimmy Rollins have to say?:

"As far as each player being announced, it should be," Rollins said. "You worked this hard all year long and you're the last two teams left. "I thought it was kind of cheap those guys didn't get the chance to get recognized. It took 25 players to get here, and each one of them should have been recognized. Bottom line."

Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson are also quoted, essentially saying the same sort of things. The article goes on to detail just how upset the Tampa Bay Rays were about this bigtime slight:

"The Rays' reserves and coaches also were not announced. But their player rep, Evan Longoria, said he was unaware of any displeasure about the slight."

Wait a second! The Rays players aren't outraged about this? You mean to tell me they most likely couldn't care less about pre-game introductions, as they are more concerned with winning the freakin' World Series? What a novel concept. If this doesn't make a casual fan root for the supposedly young and immature Rays, then I don't know what will.

Brad Lidge: "Comeback Player of the Year"

After watching him pitch last night, and about 10 other times this season, I’ve determined that Brad Lidge is absolutely filthy. The game is shortened to 8 innings with him coming out of the bullpen. He’s 47/47 in save opportunities this year, including the postseason. While reading about him today, I came across the fact that he was named the NL Comeback Player of the Year in 2008. I’m not sure how I missed this, but it’s pretty ludicrous. Granted, this is an almost meaningless award, but it bugs me nonetheless. Why does it bug me? Let's take a look at his 2007 statistics compared to 2008:


2007: 67 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 11.82 K/9, 2.93 K/BB, 1.21 HR/9, 0.93 WPA, 19/27 Saves
2008: 69 IP, 1.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.94 K/9, 2.63 K/BB, 0.26 HR/9, 5.37 WPA, 41/41 Saves

What exactly was he “coming back” from? His 2007 was pretty good, although the blown saves and high HR/9 were troublesome. His other stats are very good to outstanding. What changed from last year to this one? He figured out a way to stop giving up homers – he threw his slider 56% of the time in 2008 compared to 36% in 2007. Lidge deserves the “guy who gave up less homers than last year” award, but not the Comeback Player of the Year. This award should be reserved for guys who come back from injury, cancer, or some other serious problem like Andres Galarraga, Josh Hamilton, and Jon Lester.

***EDIT***: It turns out Lidge was named NL Comeback Player of the Year as determined by the Sporting News, and our very own Fernando Tatis was awarded the same prize by by MLB. This is a little more sane than picking Lidge, considering Tatis was out of baseball for a period and wasn't in the majors in 2007.

***EDIT #2***: Because I'm a nerd for this stuff, I looked up who The Sporting News named their pitchers and players of the year for recent seasons. GET THIS - they didn't pick Randy Johnson for NL Pitcher of the Year even once from 1999-2002 (when he won the Cy Young each season justifiably). Why is The Sporting News even in existence? Why am I obsessed with postseason awards voting errors when I know that such awards really mean nothing in the end?!

The Apocalypse is upon us, Met fans

Sign #1 - The Philadelphia Phillies are in the World Series

Sign #2 - Scott Kazmir is starting Game 5 of the ALCS, with his team up 3-1 in the series

Sign #3 - Fox will again be broadcasting the World Series, featuring the one and only Tim McCarver in the booth

P.S. Did anyone else find the conversation between the NLCS Game 5 home plate umpire Mike Winters and Chase Utley that Fox aired a little strange? It occurred right before Utley's first PA, and went like this:

Winters: Hey Chase how's it going?

Utley: Umm, pretty good how are you?

Winters: I'm great - I read today that you're from Pasadena. Wow it must be fun to be playing so close to home.

Utley: Yeah, it's good..... where are you from?

Winters: San Diego. AND GO PHILLIES!!!

I made up the last sentence, but you get the picture. Is this standard umpire/player interaction? It seemed really bizarre, especially for a playoff game.

The quote of the postseason

Courtesy of The Fightins' (via Awful Announcing), I present to you my nomination for quote of the baseball postseason, and possibly quote of the year. Here is Matt Stairs of the Phillies, after hitting the game winning homer Monday in Game 4 vs. the Dodgers:

“When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you’re getting your ass hammered by guys — there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”

Click the Fightins' link above for video of the press conference. Just an odd choice of words don't you think?

Sunday, September 7 Game Thoughts: Game 1, Phillies 6 - Mets 2; Game 2, Mets 6 - Phillies 3

A long day at Shea left the Mets up 2 games on the Phillies. Jamie Moyer dominated in game 1, and Johan Santana settled down after a rocky 1st inning to shut down the Phils and outpitch Cole Hamels in game 2. We can be thankful that the last Mets-Phils game at Shea was a win (and as an added bonus, ended on a Jimmy Rollins strikeout). Here are your game thoughts:

Game 1

- Pedro Martinez had nothing today. In 4 IP, he allowed 8 baserunners, and a 3 run bomb to new Mets killer Greg Dobbs in the 4th which essentially ended the game.

- As Gary Cohen pointed out, it’s kind of amazing that Moyer was so in control after having faced the Mets 5 times earlier this year. You’d think by now the Mets lineup would be ready for Moyer’s junkball assault. They did mash him last 2 weeks ago in Philadelphia though.

- Six Mets relievers allowed just 4 baserunners in 5 scoreless innings, continuing the recent string of brilliance.

Game 2

- This was the best all around game I’ve attended this year. The weather was perfect, Shea was packed, and Johan did the job. My record is now 7-4 for games attended in 2008.

- I was tempted to join the “M-V-P” chants for Carlos Delgado, but my rational side continues to win over. There is a lot of baseball left to play folks. (side note: I had no problem with the “OVERRATED” chant for Rollins)

- What else is there to say about Delgado and his Flushing Renaissance? Both of his homers were BOMBS, and his first inning 2 run single may have been the hit of the game. It gave the Mets the lead and momentum going forward.

- The Mets caught a couple breaks. Catcher’s interference was called on Chris Coste, awarding first base to David Wright. I hadn’t seen that call made since middle school baseball. Also, Wright apparently was out at 3rd on Carlos Beltran’s 1st inning single.

- Where have you gone Marlon Anderson? After finishing 2007 as the best pinch hitter on the planet, Marlon has been downright brutal in 2008. He struck out tonight in a pinch hitting spot. His 2008 OPS+ is 48, and his SLG is .291. Ouch.

- The bullpen finished up, although Luis Ayala pulled his usual 9th inning Braden Looper nonsense before slamming the door. In fairness to Ayala, the run he allowed was unearned, and he gave up a couple cheap hits. Some Phillie named Andy Tracy just missed a 3 run homer in the 9th which would’ve made it a 1 run game.

Who was hot today?:
Mets
Delgado: 3-8, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Damion Easley: 4-8, 2B, 3B
Santana: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Phillies
Ryan Howard: 3-8, HR, 2B
Greg Dobbs: 2-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI
Moyer: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Who stunk today?:
Mets
Jose Reyes: 0-9 (yikes)
Wright: 1-7, 2B, 5 LOB (left on base)

Phillies
Rollins: 1-10, 5 LOB
Hamels: 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

The Nats come to town this week for a quick 2 game set. These are games the Mets simply must take. The Nats have looked inspired of late, going 9-3 in their last 12. Tomorrow, I’ll check up on Jose Reyes’ September thus far, and will do this each week to see if his efforts to finish strong are paying off.

Friday, September 5 Game Thoughts: Phillies 3 - Mets 0

Brett Myers and Mike Pelfrey faced off in a pitcher's duel, but ultimately it was just Myers' night. The Mets offense squandered opportunities with double plays and strikeouts, and were shutout for the first time since August 3rd in Houston. Here are your game thoughts:

- Myers was absurdly dominant. 8 IP, 3 H, 10 K, 2 BB. 81 of his 118 pitches were strikes. Fans can be thankful he won't be pitching against the Mets the rest of the season. Myers has been rejuvenated since his little stint in AAA:

Before AAA: 17 G, 101.2 IP, 5.84 ERA, 2.00 K/BB, 1.59 WHIP
After AAA: 9 G, 63.2 IP, 1.55 ERA, 3.73 K/BB, 1.12 WHIP

- Pelfrey did his best to match Myers, and put up the usual Pelf performance. He hasn't slowed down a bit despite approaching 180 IP this season.

- Would Endy Chavez have caught Greg Dobbs' homerun in the 7th?...

- What a beautiful sight seeing Jimmy Rollins picked off by Pelfrey. I was in a bar watching the game so I couldn't get a great look at the replay, but he may have been safe.

- Over/Under on the number of times we'll hear the word "collapse" over the next few weeks: conservatively set at 1,986.

It seems like weather.com is rarely correct about anything. When precipitation % is listed at 50, generally it won't rain a drop. When it's listed at 100 however, it's going to rain. A day-night doubleheader is likely for Sunday.

Phillies series preview

The Philadelphia Phillies come to town desperate to win a series after losing 2 of the 3 to the Nationals. Winning 2 out of 3 this weekend would be a big confidence boost for the Phils, although not very significant in the standings. A Phillies sweep could be potentially disastrous for the Mets, but that just isn’t going to happen. (Right?!)

After going 6-12 against the Phillies in 2007 (including losing the last 8 in a row), the Mets have dominated in 2008, going 10-5. That includes 2 of the worst losses of the season.

Pitching matchups:

Game 1
Brett Myers (4.40 ERA, 101 ERA+, 1.41 WHIP, 8-10 W/L) vs.
Mike Pelfrey (3.66 ERA, 113 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 13-8 W/L)

Game 2
Jamie Moyer (3.80 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP, 12-7 W/L) vs.
Pedro Martinez (5.07 ERA, 81 ERA+, 1.47 WHIP, 5-3 W/L)

Game 3
Cole Hamels (3.01 ERA, 148 ERA+, 1.03 WHIP, 12-8 W/L) vs.
Johan Santana (2.71, 152 ERA+, 1.15 WHIP, 12-7 W/L)

Who’s Owned the Phillies in 2008?
David Wright - .302/.397/.508, 13 RBI
Jose Reyes - .299/.373/.507, 10/10 SB
Santana – 29 IP, 3.10 ERA, 8.66 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP

Who’s Owned the Mets in 2008?
Jayson Werth (AKA the new Pat “The Bat” Burrell) - .327/.441/.510, 3 HR
Chad Durbin – 13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 2.33 K/BB, 0.92 WHIP

Look for pitchers’ duels Friday and Sunday, in between a high scoring affair Saturday between Pedro and Moyer. I’m thinking both of them will get mashed.

I would like to see Reyes and Carlos Beltran attempt some stolen bases (a strategy I’m usually against). Phillies catchers have thrown out just 23% of runners. Reyes memorably got thrown out trying to steal 3rd to end an inning in the final Mets-Phils series in 2007, with Wright up at the plate.

Johan vs. Cole promises to be a Sunday night showcase of 2 dominant pitchers. I almost wish I was watching on TV at home to hear Joe Morgan say both are underperforming because of their disappointing W/L records. I’ll be in attendance though, in the nosebleeds.

Let’s hope Burrell doesn’t wake up from his slump during his final series at Shea. In his last 10 Games, Burrell is .140/.159/.163 with 1 XBH and 2 RBI. Ryan Howard has been a monster over his last 10 games – .341/.426/.829(!), 5 HR, 11 RBI. He has 5 homers vs. the Mets this season.

I’ll probably say this about every series the rest of season, but this is the biggest series of the year. Let’s go Mets.

Johan vs. Cole

According to MLB.com, Phillies' ace/pretty boy Cole Hamels will be bumped up a spot in the rotation to face the Mets, and Johan Santana, Sunday night. He will be pitching on normal rest, as the Phils have Thursday off.

I say bring him on. It should be one of the pitching matchups of the year, and I am especially happy because I'll be in attendance. Check out Johan and Cole's stats on the year. They're pretty similar:

Johan: 196 IP, 2.71 ERA, 169 K, 51 BB, 1.15 WHIP, 152 ERA+, 12-7 W/L

Cole: 203 IP, 3.01 ERA, 174 K, 46 BB, 1.03 WHIP, 148 ERA+, 12-8 W/L

Wednesday, August 27 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Phillies 3

This game singlehandedly reversed Tuesday’s nightmare, and then some. For a change, the Mets dominated innings 7, 8, and 9, at the plate, in the field, and, most importantly, on the mound. Here are your game thoughts:

- CARLOS DELGADO!!! - hitting like it's 1999.
- DANIEL MURPHY!!! - mashing against the best closer in the NL.
- BRIAN SCHNEIDER!!! - hitting the jackpot with the luckiest 2 RBI hit in recent Mets history.

- Right before Murphy’s big 8th inning double, I was thinking “It’s about time to induct Murphy into the small sample size hall of fame, along with Shane Spencer, Benny Agbayani and Timo Perez.” I was happy to be proven wrong.

- Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith and Luis Ayala shockingly combined for 3 scoreless innings, with Stokes looking impressive yet again. Jerry Manuel should keep putting Stokes out there in meaningful spots until he gives reason not to. In 17 IP, Stokes has a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 K and 3 BB.

- If I’m a Phillies fan, I have to be upset at Charlie Manuel’s use of Brad Lidge. The guy is unhittable, and you leave Rudy Seanez in to face Delgado, who was 3-6 with 2 homers against Seanez in his career. You need to bring in your bullpen ace at that point of the game. Also, Lidge made Delgado look silly in last night’s game, striking him out with ease.

Despite my heaping praise of Lidge, great job by the Mets getting to him. He’s been having some injury problems recently, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him head for a DL stint a la Billy Wagner. (side note: this is not to say I wish physical harm on Lidge; I’m just saying if he was injured, I wouldn’t be heartbroken; second side note: upset of the series - Aaron Heilman outpitched fellow Notre Dame alum Lidge)

- David Wright’s play in the field during August could fill a highlight reel. His 8th inning catch and throw to beat the speedy “Phlyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino at 1st was spectacular. David's performance at the plate in these 2 games left a lot to be desired, however.

This quote, from Ron Darling, perfectly captured the Mets experience: “Never has there been a team with a 14-6 record in their last 20 games, which was capable of creating so much angst."

Tomorrow’s day off will be much more enjoyable for the Mets and their fans after tonight. Rest up and recharge for a 3 game set against a struggling Marlins team this weekend.

Tuesday, August 26 Game Thoughts: Phillies 8 - Mets 7

I briefly considered texting my Philadelphia friends something to the effect of “now say goodnight” when the Mets went up 7-0 in the 4th. I came to my senses immediately, and realized that this is the 2008 Mets, famous for late inning hitting and pitching collapses. I could write an essay about this game. Wow, what a scary flashback to late August/September 2007. Here are your game thoughts:

- I personally feel for any Mets fan who made the trip to Philly. Hopefully Johan Santana can redeem you tomorrow.

- Congrats to Damion Easley on a HUGE night: on base 5 times with a bomb homer. I’ve been writing about Easley’s overrated play this season recently, so good job sticking it to me Damion.

- Jose Reyes made an amazing play in the 9th to temporarily prolong the game. Carlos Delgado made a great play to rob Ryan Howard in the 10th, also prolonging the game.

- I’m one of the only people left in New York who likes Aaron Heilman, so I was happy to see him pitch 3 scoreless, yet eventful, innings. It’s not often you see Aaron confidently striding off the mound after a job well done, but he earned it after striking out Chase Utley and Howard in the 12th.

- Heard on the broadcast: a creative Phillies fan yelling “CHAVEZ, YOU BUM” during Endy Chavez’s 13th inning AB.

- Keith and Ron let out a collective laugh in the 9th when Howard almost took Luis Ayala deep, as if to say, “My God I can’t handle this”. I had the same feeling. All 3 announcers got progressively goofier and started rooting for the Mets more and more as the game went on… which is fine with me.

This was just too much for one night. Good night Mets. Pick everyone up tomorrow night Johan.