Mets sign Livan Hernanez as deep insurance for the rotation

The Mets signed El Duque's half brother Livan Hernandez to a $1 million minor league contract, with another $1 million in incentives. Hopefully he won't have a chance to meet those incentives, as the 2009 Mets will be in trouble if Livan logs any significant innings pitched. His K/9 plummeted to 3.35 in 2009, and he posted the 13th worst FIP in baseball for pitchers with 150+ IP. If he made a few more starts last year he may have given up 300 hits. Yikes. However, he is an innings eater and has a rubber arm. It pays to have insurance for this rotation, given the various concerns for John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and Freddy Garcia. All in all, not a bad signing by Omar Minaya considering the price.

Mets 2009 rotation: Could it be identical to 2008's?

It seems inevitable that the Mets will sign Oliver Perez, and Jon Heyman at SI reports that Omar Minaya's undying love for Pedro Martinez may lead to a contract. I know I've said it before, but it is time to cut ties with Pedro. There's nothing more to say about that possibility. Also, assuming Ollie is signed for $10 million a year and Pedro $4 million (plus incentives?), I'd estimate team payroll to be around $140 million. This just about confirms that no significant upgrades would be made at the corner OF position.

The strategy for the rotation appears to be similar to the corner OF strategy. Why sign an impact player (i.e. Adam Dunn) when you can have Cory Sullivan, Rob Mackowiak, and Angel Pagan? Why acquire a front-line starting pitcher (i.e. Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, or Javier Vazquez) when you can have Oliver Perez, Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Pedro Martinez? I liked the Redding and Garcia contracts, but only if coupled with a Lowe or Sheets signing. Lowe is now a Brave, and it doesn't seem like Sheets-to-the-Mets is likely.

If the 2009 rotation is Santana-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine-Martinez/Redding/Garcia, it projects to be identical or slightly worse than 2008's:

The projections seem reasonable except Pedro's, which I think is too generous. The bullpen has been upgraded, but not by as much as one would think. The lineup also projects the same or slightly worse than 2008. I'll hold off until the team is finalized before judging Omar Minaya, but at this point it doesn't seem like 2009 Mets will be better than the 2008 Mets.

Mets sign backup OF Rob Mackowiak - Why?!

Lefty hitting OF Rob Mackowiak has signed with the Mets on a 1-year minor league deal worth atleast $600K. Mackowiak is yet another crappy corner OF the Mets have acquired or re-signed this offseason along with Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan, and Angel Pagan. I don't understand this signing and think it's a total waste of money. Apparently Omar Minaya's philosophy is "Why sign 1 very good corner OF (Adam Dunn) when I can have 4 shitty ones?" That is one crowded OF, with Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in the mix. Does Omar realize that a team can only have 25 players on its roster?

Anyways, Mackowiak can play a lot of positions decently and will likely put up a line around .250/.330/.370 if he makes the team. I just don't see where he fits in. I'd have much rather seen the money given to Sullivan and Mackowiak go towards the "Ben Sheets Fund."

How about Andy Pettitte?

My first choice for the Mets open rotation spot(s) is Ben Sheets. When healthy, he is a dominant, #1 type pitcher. I think Omar Minaya is reluctant to go after Sheets because he fears him turning into a younger version of injury prone Pedro Martinez and El Duque. I see Andy Pettitte as the next best option. Compare the FIP's of various pitchers:

Pettitte is not that big a dropoff from Derek Lowe. Forget Oliver Perez. The reason Pettitte isn't getting the respect he deserves this offseason was his inflated ERA (4.54 in 2008) due to bad luck and poor defense (see: Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano). He is a near lock for 200 IP even at age 36 and would be the #2 pitcher in the rotation. FanGraphs pegs Pettitte's 1-year contract value at $15 million and BtB said $14 million. He turned down 1-year and $10 million from the Yankees, and I would love to see the Mets offer as much as $12-13 million for 1 year of Pettitte's services.

The Derek Lowe fallout

Derek Lowe signed with the Braves today for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news because:

1) Lowe was the best remaining starter on the market and I wanted the Mets to sign him.
2) He signed with the Braves, who now have the best rotation in the NL East: Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and Tim Hudson (if he returns from injury)
3) This likely drives up the price for supposed "Plan B" option, Oliver Perez. As I wrote at Mets Geek today, Lowe is far superior to Ollie. I get the feeling many Met fans think they're close in value, but they simply aren't. Seriously, compare their FIP's and $$ value's based on the stat WAR over the last 2 seasons:

Lowe
2007: 3.97 - $13.1 million
2008: 3.26 - $15.8 million

Perez
2007: 4.35 - $8.5 million
2008: 4.68 - $5.3 million

I'd prefer it if Omar Minaya signed Ben Sheets, as Sheets is the last dominating pitcher left on the market. This seems unlikely. Apparently Omar is a huge fan of Ollie, so I think the Mets will go after him hard. This is not a problem, as long as the Mets do not overpay for him and have $$ leftover to sign Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez. However, if the Mets eventually sign Ollie for anything resembling 4 years, $52 million I plan to buy the URL: http://www.fiya-minaya.com/ (think "fire Minaya").

Omar: Say NO to Michael Young

Yet another installment of my "SAY NO" series, it was revealed today that Rangers SS Michael Young has requested/demanded a trade after the team asked him to move to 3B next season. The Mets supposedly had interest in trading for Young last month to play 2B, and I wrote about it here. My stance against acquiring Young has not changed, and here are the reasons why:

1) He is 32 years old and owed $62 million over the next 5 seasons. That's $12+ million a year for a guy guy whose OPS+ has dropped like this:
2005: 138
2006: 107
2007: 106
2008: 96

2) He won a Gold Glove in 2008, but his defense isn't all that great. He's never posted a UZR better than -3.7 since becoming a regular major leaguer, and is a cumulative -22 on the Dewan +/- scale over the last 3 seasons. So that Gold Glove is kind of a sham.

3) A man by the name of Luis Castillo is currently 1st on the Mets depth chart at 2B. He would have to be traded before Young could be acquired. The Rangers have a 26 year-old star named Ian Kinsler manning 2B, so Castillo would not be a fit there.

I don't take this rumor seriously, and highly doubt Omar Minaya is seeking a trade for Young. But just in case - say no to Michael Young.

Bullpen firing squad continues: Scott Schoeneweis traded

I'm a couple days late to this trade as I spent the weekend in D.C. watching my Hoyas beat Memphis in an overtime thriller. The post-game celebration is still a little hazy...

Anyways, Scott "The Big Show" Schoeneweis has been spared the embarrassment of being booed on opening day during pre-game intros in 2009. He was traded to Arizona for 27-year old RHP Connor Robertson. Whatever. This was the latest in Omar Minaya's bullpen house-cleaning, as Schoeneweis, Aaron Heilman, and Joe Smith have been shipped out in the last week. Schow had a terrible 2007, an OK 2008, and was always useful vs. lefties. Pedro Feliciano is the last lefty in the 'pen, and I think he's safe. Check out Metstradamus for a nice picture of Omar and his bullpen.

Schoeneweis kind of looks like Tony Romo. Robertson has minimal major league experience, but has a 3.33 ERA in 300 minor league innings. His minor league K/9 is 11.31(!!) and K/BB is an excellent 3.12. However, he only throws in the high 80's so who knows if his ridiculous strikeout ability will ever translate to the majors. The Mets cut some salary here so the trade is fine with me. I'd like to see another lefty added to the 'pen (Joe Beimel? Dennys Reyes?).

The nightmare is over!!! Phillies sign Raul Ibanez

The Phillies have supposedly signed OF Raul Ibanez to a 3 year, $30 million contract. I couldn't be happier, as the Mets will not be able to sign him and give up another draft pick. I previously wrote that Ibanez is basically an older and left-handed hitting Pat Burrell, so the Phillies lineup should be about the same.

Omar Minaya recently said:

"Before I start moving my dollars to offense, I've got to move my dollars to pitching."

I agree with his thinking, and let's hope this rumored trade for #5 starter and innings eater Jason Marquis is coupled with a free agent signing of Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe. Unlikely, but if Omar acquires Marquis he absolutely must also get a top-of-the-line starter. Marquis and Jon Niese will not cut it at the back of the rotation.

It Putz the lotion in the basket

Welcome to New York, J.J. Putz. In case you missed it, the Mets traded Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, and minor leaguers Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera for J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed. The Indians were also involved, as they received Luis Valbuena and gave up Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Click here for the whole trade.

My gut reaction is that it's a good trade that improves the Mets right now. If healthy, Putz is dominant. He and K-Rod would form the best 1-2 punch out of the 'pen in baseball. I also love the idea of Putz being utilized as a "relief ace", coming in to pitch during high leverage situations, no matter if it's the 6th or 9th inning. The 2007-2008 Mets lacked that pre-9th inning guy. However, the Mets gave up 7 players and got 3 in return, 1 of whom (Reed) I don't think is good enough to be on the Opening Day roster. I'll break the trade down later in more detail.

Omar Minaya covered his ass - now no one can say he didn't try to improve the bullpen.

Winter Meetings Day 3 roundup

Wednesday's Mets developments from the Bellagio:

1) "The Mets are looking at the Pirates' Matt Capps"

Capps is a 25 year-old, low 90's throwing reliever. In 217.1 career IP, he he's posted a 3.58 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. He is a stud. The Pirates will not trade him for cheap, meaning the classic "lets trade Aaron Heilman for him" is not going to cut it. I would love to see him as a Met, but it won't come cheap.

2) "The Mets were rebuffed in their attempt to trade Aaron Heilman to the Rockies for righty Huston Street"

Like Capps, I would love to see Street in a Mets uniform next year. Also like Capps, he will not come cheap. Street is death to right-handed hitters, but has also held lefties to a .710 OPS against in his career.

3) "The Mets have shown interest in trading for Juan Pierre"

This is preposterous. I'm guessing the Mets would trade Luis Castillo, who is like 10% the headache Pierre is considering their contracts. Pierre's OBP was .327 and OPS+ was 73 (as a corner OF!!!) in 2008. On top of that, his defense is slightly above average at best. He is owed an average of $9.5 million over the next 3 seasons. Stay away from Pierre.

4) "John Smoltz wants to pitch for a team that could take him to the World Series... the free agent is considering the New York Mets" amongst other teams including the Braves and Red Sox

I'd welcome Smoltz with open arms. I'm guessing he'd only get a 1-year deal considering his injury history and age, and that's fine. Smoltz was dominate in 2007 (3.21 FIP in 205.2 IP), and would be the Mets' #2 pitcher at this point if healthy.

5) "The Mets have a meeting scheduled Wednesday afternoon with Scott Boras to discuss both Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez. They also plan to meet with the agents for Randy Wolf and Jon Garland."

This is a step in the right direction, as it is the first I've read of the Mets aggressively working to sign a starting pitcher. The Yankees supposedly offered Lowe 4 years, $66 million, which is probably a slight bargain. I'd go as high as 4 years, $70-72 million for him. Perez isn't worth more than $6 million a year or so. I like Wolf as well, but would only be happy with signing Garland if Lowe, Ben Sheets, or Wolf are signed first.

6) "The Mets and the Seattle Mariners are in serious discussions on a trade that would bring Seattle closer J.J. Putz to the Mets in exchange for reliever Aaron Heilman and minor-league first baseman Mike Carp"

I like this trade. It seems like Heilman will be inevitably be traded, and I don't foresee Carp getting a shot at the big league level despite his minor league success. Putz is owed $5 million in 2009 and has an $8.6 million club option in 2010. His 2008 season was a little disappointing after a dominant 2007, but his career K/BB is an outstanding 3.24 and he throws 95 mph.

Winter Meetings Day 2, featuring K-ROD

Today's developments from the Winter Meetings at the Bellagio:

1) "The New York Mets have reached an agreement in principle with All-Star closer Francisco Rodriguez on a three-year, $37 million contract. The deal includes a $14 million vesting option for a fourth year that would raise the total value of the contract to $51 million."

Eh. The Mets get a proven closer and they do it early this offseason. I hate the 4th year vesting option - that's just too much $$ for a closer. FanGraphs is mixed on the signing but Beyond the Boxscore likes it. Omar Minaya has sent a message to the fans that he's not messing around this offseason with the bullpen, and I guess like that. But Omar - your job is far from over.

2) "The Mets inquired on [Texas Rangers SS] Michael Young"

No, thank you. Young is a 32 and owed a mind-boggling $16 million a year through 2013 (and we Met fans thought the Luis Castillo contract was silly). He would play 2B, assuming Castillo is traded. Young went .284/.339/.402 in 2008, doesn't steal many bases (though his SB% is strong), and has never posted a UZR better than -3.7 since becoming a full time major leaguer. Let's forget this "inquiry" ever happened.

3) "The Philles, Mets, and Cubs appear to have separated themselves from the pack of teams pursuing outfielder Raul Ibanez."

For the one thousandth time, please no. Click here for more on why not. I honestly don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to sign Ibanez, but the nonstop reports of Mets interest are scary.

4) Former Mets Kris Benson and Scott Erickson are attempting comebacks

Good for them?

Opinions on today's happenings at the Winter Meetings

Today is day 1 of the baseball Winter Meetings held at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. Let's run down the Mets rumors for the day and my quick thoughts on each:

1) "The Mets offered K-Rod a 2-year deal worth $12 million with a 3rd year vesting option"

I'll take K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, or dark-horse Kerry Wood (who was not offered arbitration wouldn't cost a draft pick) for a reasonable price. By reasonable I mean 3 years, $12 million or less per year. For whatever reason, Met fans seem to prefer K-Rod a heckuva lot more than Fuentes, but they're pretty much equal in actual value. Wood is a tier below these two and an injury risk.

2) "The Mets are desperate to trade Luis Castillo and sign Orlando Hudson"

I can't see any team taking Castillo in return for any worthwhile player (spare me this Jose Guillen stuff). Hudson is 31 years old and has had 2 seasons in a row end in injury. His career OPS+ is 99, and his vaunted defense might not be all it's cracked up to be (in 2008 he posted a -4 on the +/- scale, UZR of -6.1). Give Castillo another shot (shudder).

3) "The Mets have Jon Garland on their radar"

No. Just please no. Read here for more.

4) "The Red Sox are in trade discussions for Mets catcher Brian Schneider"

Whatever. The Mets could do a lot worse than Schneider and Ramon Castro at catcher. If they can get a solid prospect or 2 for Schneider, then fine, make the trade. I just don't think this should be a priority.

5) "Chad Cordero and his agent plan to meet with the Mets" and 4 other teams

Cordero is coming off a serious arm injury, which caused his fastball velocity to drop to 84 mph this season. I'd be OK with signing him, as long as it's not multi-year or too pricey. He may not even be ready for spring training. Omar Minaya loves his former Expos, so don't be surprised to see him sign with the Mets. Take a look at his medical records first, Omar.

6) "David Eckstein is drawing interest from 5 teams"

Good God, no. Luckily it doesn't specify that the Mets are one of the teams. However, for anyone who thinks Eckstein would be an upgrade over Castillo, look at the following:

Eckstein, career: .284/.351/.361
Castillo, career: .292/..367/.355

Bill James 2009 projection
Eckstein: .277/.346/.346
Castillo: .281/.362/.344

Their fielding skills are similar, and Eckstein has played 38 career games at 2B. There's no reason to get rid of Castillo only to replace him with Eckstein.

7) "Phillies enter Jake Peavy fray"

Say it ain't so. Peavy and Cole Hamels in the same rotation would be terrifying.

Omar: Say NO to Jon Garland

This is the 2nd installment in my “SAY NO” series, the first subject being Jason Varitek. Support for signing Jon Garland has been floating around, and I’m worried. Worried that Omar Minaya will sign him for like 3 years, $40 million and declare it the big off-season starting pitching acquisition. Let’s take a look at his relevant numbers:

To summarize:
a) His already underwhelming K/9 and BB/9 have worsened since his breakout season of 2005, when he posted a K/9 of 4.68 and BB/9 of 1.91.
b) His FIP is overly generous because he gets hit pretty hard. An LD% greater than 20% is generally cause for concern.
c) To his credit, he eats innings and hasn’t lost anything off of his fastball. He is just 29 years old and stands 6’6” tall. He and 6’7” Mike Pelfrey could stand next to each other and look intimidating in the back row of the team photo.

Garland is regarded as a strong pitcher mainly because of his good W-L record and World Series ring. Do not be fooled. His peripheral stats are not impressive, and they seem to be getting worse each season. I’m not saying Garland is worthless – I wouldn’t mind seeing him as the Mets 5th starter for a 1 or 2 year deal at $8 million per. This is not likely though, considering the Carlos Silva contract last offseason and Oliver Perez’s projected deal. Of course this could all be moot as Garland might accept the Angels’ arbitration offer. Omar Minaya: Just say no to Garland (at the projected 3-4 years, $12 million per year).

Omar: Say NO to Jason Varitek

I feel the need to shoot down one Mets offseason rumor. Jon Heyman wrote in his offseason blog:

"Should the Mets find a deal for their catchers, longtime Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a free agent, could be a possibility for them. Mets GM Omar Minaya has always liked Ivan Rodriguez, but it isn't known whether they'd consider I-Rod, as well."

First off, how worthless is the sentence about Rodriguez? It adds nothing. He might as well write: "Omar Minaya has always liked sushi, but it isn't known if he'd consider it for dinner tonight." Second, if the Mets trade 32 year-old Brian Schneider or 32 year-old Ramon Castro and sign 36 year-old Jason Varitek, I might just give up. Here are some relevant stats:

There is no logical reason to do this. Schneider is set to make $5 million each of the next 2 seasons, and Castro costs $2.5 million next year. Varitek would likely cost more than that. Why trade a guy, only to replace him with a worse, more expensive player? Last time I checked, old catchers like Varitek don't often experience a career renaissance in their late 30's. The Mets got league average production from the catcher position this year. There are other areas to worry about.

Omar Minaya's supposed contract extension

By now, most Met fans have heard that Omar Minaya has been given a 4-year contract extension. Suffice it to say I am unhappy with this, but not because I think Omar has done a poor job. I'm unhappy because it means that within the last week or so, someone at the top of the Mets organization (I'm looking at you, Wilpons) decided "You know what? Omar needs an extension RIGHT NOW, before the season ends." This is ridiculous.

Omar has put together a championship caliber team, in my opinion. Yes, the bullpen has been disastrous, but if Billy Wagner hadn't gone down, the Mets might be 4 games up in the division. I don't think he should be fired, even if the Mets miss the playoffs. He had 1 year left on his original deal, through 2009. Why not wait until then (or after this season at minimum) to discuss extensions? It will be tough to defend this extension if Met fans are subjected to another email like this one, from October, 2007:

"Monday, October 1, 2007
Dear Mets Fan:
All of us at the Mets are bitterly disappointed in failing to achieve our collective goal of building upon last year's success. We did not meet our organization's expectations -- or yours. Everyone at Shea feels the same range of emotions as you -- our loyal fans -- and we know we have let you down. We wanted to thank you for your record-breaking support of our team this year. Equally important, Ownership will continue its commitment inproviding the resources necessary to field a championship team. Omar will be meeting with Ownership shortly to present his plan on addressing our shortcomings so that we can achieve our goal of winning championships in 2008 and beyond. You deserve better results. Many thanks again for your record-breaking support."

Additionally, this is a distraction the Mets players and coaches shouldn't have to deal with at this juncture. It's yet another strange chapter in one of the most epic and eventful Mets seasons ever.