Mets Geek column: Fun with lineups

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I try to create the optimal Mets lineup based on a couple statistically based methods of lineup construction. No matter what the lineup is, I can say with certainty that it makes no sense for Luis Castillo to bat 2nd. Here's my lineup:

Jose Reyes
David Wright
Carlos Delgado
Carlos Beltran
Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
Ryan Church
Luis Castillo
Brian Schneider
Pitcher

Mets Geek column: Adding another lefty to the bullpen

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I advocate signing another lefty to complement Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen. Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes and even Brian Fuentes are free agent options.

In other news, these Andruw Jones rumors are pretty silly. The guy is done as a player and I don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to trade for him, even if he can unload Luis Castillo. Happy new year everybody!

More on Luis Castillo

An astute reader and Met fan currently living in Washington, DC emailed the following about Luis Castillo:

"Watching Mets-Nats last night & the Nats announcers started talking about Luis Castillo. They said Castillo never studies any opposing pitchers, watches any tapes, or does any preparation for games. They also told a bunch of stories about times when Castillo said he just gets on the plane to the away games and often has no idea even where the team is going. They claimed he just likes to go out & play and not think about anything. Maybe thats why Jerry Manuel doesnt play him."

If this is all true, it is extremely disappointing considering Castillo is in year 1 of an awful 4 year, $25 million contract. Rumors have made the rounds over the last year saying Castillo is a party animal and bad influence on Jose Reyes. I am usually skeptical about things like this, and have yet to read anything showing hard evidence that this is the case. Anybody who has, please let me know.

Nevertheless, the lineup should be based on offense/defense ability - not off the field activity. Start Castillo over A. Reyes.

P.S. The reader in DC's all-time favorite Met is Royce Ring. He was devastated when the Mets traded Royce and Heath "Heater" Bell to the Padres for an autographed Tony Gwynn jersey.

Wednesday, September 17 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Nationals 7

No lead is safe, no game is easy. You’d think the game was being played at Coors Field or Citizens Bank the way the Nats came back from a 7-1 deficit. The offense came through early, and continued to tack on insurance runs which turned out to be crucial. Here are your game thoughts:

- Jose Reyes apparently had enough of the offense woes, and lead off the game with a homer to right center. Carlos Delgado added a one-handed 420 foot bomb in the 1st as well.

- Carlos Beltran busted out of a brief slump as well, hitting 2 homers. The Mets 1-5 batters went 8-21, with 4 HR, 8 RBI and 3 BB (including David Wright’s ugly 0-5).

- I’m a broken record here, but WHY IS ARGENIS “AWFUL” REYES STARTING?!?! Jerry Manuel must really hate Luis Castillo, or Awful Reyes has some blackmail dirt on him. Do not buy this “A. Reyes brings energy” or “The Mets just seem to win with A. Reyes in the lineup.” Here are the facts:

Argenis Reyes: .524 OPS, 41(!) OPS+, -5.2 VORP (2nd lowest on the team to Marlon Anderson), .190 EqA
Luis Castillo: .669 OPS, 80 OPS+, 5.3 VORP, .257 EqA

Reyes’s defense may be slightly better than Castillo’s, but the discrepancy is not glaring enough to warrant Argenis starting. I’m going to puke if A. Reyes is in the starting lineup tonight.

- Brandon Knight performed about as well as we could expect him to. He allowed 10 baserunners in just 5 innings, but worked out of jams. It would be nice if the Mets didn’t have to rely on him to start again this year though.

- The Mets used 7 pitchers to get 12 outs after Knight was pulled. Brian Stokes has come back to down to earth, and Elijah Dukes continued to mash against Met pitching. The rest of the crew followed, with mixed results. Joe Smith is officially the only Met reliever I have confidence in.

- Any reason Al Reyes has yet to pitch? Maybe the Mets are leery of his hard partying history.

Just assume every game from here on in is a must win. Tonight’s matchup of Johan Santana vs. Tim Redding is a matchup of the Mets and Nats respective aces. Redding is a tough pitcher and shouldn’t be taken lightly. Hopefully he’ll be more Shairon Martis and less John Lannan.

Monday, August 25 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Astros 1

Mike Pelfrey and Carlos Delgado were the story tonight. Big Pelf tossed his 2nd straight complete game, narrowly missing a shutout. Carlos clubbed a pair of 3-run homers, the 2nd one off of lefty-specialist Wesley Wright, who had been holding lefties to a .155 average and .489 OPS this season. I flipped a coin, and Carlos won tonight's game MVP award. Here are your game thoughts:

- The majority of Met fans will not agree with me here, but WHY WHY WHY was Pelfrey still in the game with the Mets up 7-0 in the 8th?!?! Yes, he had great stuff. Yes, his pitch count was relatively low. But Mike is now at 163 IP this season, with over a month left. With 30 games to go, this will give Mike about 6 more starts. Averaging a conservative 6 innings per game, he'll finish around 200 IP this season (not counting playoffs, ***fingers crossed***). This is too many for such a young player. Joel Sherman at the NY Post and Ken Davidoff at Newsday have addressed this issue. Jerry Manuel, why not put Brian Stokes or Aaron Heilman in this no pressure game to get them some work and rest Big Mike?

- Looks like Luis Castillo will need some time to shake that rust off.

- Also, it appears opposing teams have gotten together a scouting report on Dan Murphy, as he went 0-3 with 3 K's and is now 4 for his last 22, with 4 walks.

I'm glad to see the Astros get out of town. Hopefully the Mets can build off of tonight's win going to Philly for a quickie 2 game series. The suddenly hot Phillies are coming off a 4 game sweep of the formerly hot Dodgers. Fortunately for the Mets, they won't have to face Cole Hamels or a resurrected Brett Myers. The matchups are:

- Tuesday, August 26 - Pedro Martinez vs. Jamie Moyer
- Wednesday, August 27 - Johan Santana vs. Kyle Kendrick

The longball has been Petey's nemesis of late, and a trip to the hitter's paradise that is Citizens Bank may not help the situation. Moyer has been hot of late, sporting an ERA of 2.51 and a WHIP of 1.19 in 9 July/August starts. A sweep, even in this short get together, would be a huge confidence builder and momentum boost for the home stretch.

Castillo, part deux

Luis Castillo will start tonight vs. the Astros in his first game back from the DL. This decision is apparently not sitting well with many Met fans and NY sportswriters who have grossly overvalued the Damion Easley/Argenis Reyes tandem. Not to go all FJM here, but take Larry Brooks of the New York Post (a paper with a usually strong sports section that has fallen off in recent years):

"Someone who doesn't deserve to sit will sit - Easley, primarily. And someone who doesn't deserve to be demoted will be demoted - Reyes, probably. This is all done to accomodate Castillo, who was a significant disappointment and more than a bit of a whiner before going on the DL with a hip flexor on July 3. "

Yes, maybe Castillo has been a bit of a disappointment, but how can you look at the 3 individuals' stats and not see that Castillo has been the most productive of the trio and should start consistently?? See my post from Thursday for a more in-depth look at the stats, but to summarize, here are the important numbers:

Castillo: .261/.365/.331, an .800 OPS with RISP
Easley: .262/.312/.347, a .679 OPS with RISP
Reyes: .264/.297/.299, a .274 OPS with RISP

Back to Mr. Brooks:

"They are 31-14 since Castillo went on the DL. No, he's not an NFL quarterback or an NHL goaltender with more than his share of the burden on his shoulders. The starting rotation has remade itself into a dominating force. Carlos Delgado has turned back the clock. Still, if you are what your record says you are, the Mets are a better team without Castillo than with him."

This is laughable writing. He actually lists out the BIGGEST reasons why the Mets have been resurgent, and even acknowledges that Castillo cannot singlehandedly win or lose games. Then he reiterates his ridiculous hypothesis. Unfortunately, Met fans read garbage like this and let it influence how they feel about the situation. I will now re-write this paragraph, and it will make just as much sense as what Mr. Brooks wrote:

"They are 31-14 since I started drinking only light beer. No, light beer does not taste as good, and doesn't get you as drunk. Still, if you are what your record says you are, the Mets are a better team since I started drinking light beer."

Additionally, Bart Hubbuch of the Post wrote essentially the same exact column, linked here. It is equally as silly.

Castillo vs. Easley vs. A. Reyes

Luis Castillo will likely be joining the Mets today or sometime within the week. His return has sparked spirited debate about who should start at 2B upon his return. Mike Nichols at MetsBlog feels Castillo should not start, but rather should have to earn his way back via pinch hitting and fill-in roles. One of his arguments is that the Mets are 28-14 (29-14 after last night) since Castillo went on the DL. This is a faulty argument, considering that the resurgence of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and the entire starting rotation should also be attributed to the team's improved performance.

I feel that the best way to decide is to look at each player's performance objectively. Here are the relevant stats for the 2B options, in alphabetical order:

Luis Castillo: 3 HR, 26 RBI, .261/.365/.331, 13 SB, 88 OPS+, 4.26 pitches per plate appearance*, in 294 PA's, .800 OPS with RISP

Damion Easley: 5 HR, 37 RBI, .262/.313/.348, 0 SB, 77 OPS+, 3.39 pitches per plate appearance*, in 293 PA's, .688 OPS with RISP

Argenis Reyes: 1 HR, 3 RBI, .271/.303/.306, 2 SB, 64 OPS+, 3.65 pitches per plate appearance*, in 92 PA's, .274(!) OPS with RISP

*I included this statistic because on last night's telecast, Gary, Keith, and Ron were admiring A. Reyes's ability to work counts, and I wanted to find out for myself if he really has shown that ability, or if it just seems that way. If he had enough qualifying ABs, Castillo would be 4th in the league in pitches per PA, behind Adam Dunn, Fred Lewis, and Kosuke Fukudome.

I believe Castillo has generally been most valuable. His HR total and slugging are lower than Easley's, but his on-base % is over 50(!) points higher. He trumps A. Reyes in every category. Castillo is also most adept of the trio at working counts, stealing bases, and hitting with RISP.

A. Reyes's biggest asset is his glove. He's made some slick plays in recent weeks in big spots. Defensively, I'd rate A. Reyes the best, followed by Castillo, then Easley. However, he is not a productive major league hitter at this point in his career. He doesn't get on base or hit for power. Don't get me wrong, I like having him on the roster, especially come Sept. 1 when rosters expand, as he would be valuable as a late inning defensive replacement. He just hasn't shown ability at the plate to justify starting on a consistent basis.

The following non-statistical factors should (debatably) be taken into account: Easley has hit some big homers this year, fans don't like Castillo's bloated contract, Castillo will have some rust coming back from injury, fans love the fact that A. Reyes has the same last name as the other Reyes, etc.

After a week or so to allow Castillo to shake off the DL rust, I feel the ideal situation would be for Castillo to start every 5 games out of 7, Easley start the other 2 out of 7, with A. Reyes pinch hitting and serving as a defensive replacement.