It would be wise to take an objective look at what went right and wrong for the Mets in 2008 before recommending roster moves this offseason. Most fans can determine just by watching the games that the bullpen was disastrous, and the offense and pitching were solid. Let’s take a look at the statistics and see if perception equals reality:
Offense799 Runs (2nd in the NL out of 16 teams)
4.93 R/game (2nd)
.266 BA( 4th)
.340 OBP (4th)
.420 SLG (6th)
.761 OPS (4th)
172 HR (7th)
.253 BA w/RISP (10th)
.265 BA in "close and late" situations (4th)
.272 BA with runners on base (5th)
These numbers are excellent. The home runs are not impressive, but that is not an issue considering the team BA, OBP, and SLG were so strong. Interestingly enough,
Baseball Prospectus projected the Mets to score 799 runs this year – they hit it right on the nose. The offense was not a glaring issue in 2008. This is not to say it can’t be improved. (
***EDIT***: I added the last 3 listed stats, responding to a valued commenter's request. Again, I encourage comments/suggestions, especially when it appears that I'm twisting the stats to fit my supposed agenda.)
Starting Pitching
3.98 ERA (5th out of 16)
6.00 IP/start (3rd)
86 Quality Starts (3rd)
3 CG (3rd)
1.36 WHIP (6th)
105 HR (6th)
.253 BAA (2nd)
.725 OPS against (4th)
The rotation did a commendable job this year, pitching pretty well despite
Pedro Martinez sucking,
Oliver Perez’s inconsistency and
John Maine’s injury problems. However, there are potentially 2 open spots in 2009 (if Perez doesn’t re-sign). Maine will be coming off surgery so he is not a given.
Bullpen4.25 ERA (13th out of 16 teams)
1.40 WHIP (9th)
58 HR (6th most)
29 Blown Saves (2nd most)
60% Save Percentage (11th)
.258 BAA (10th)
.736 OPS against (10th)
The bullpen is biggest culprit in 2009, and the part of the team EVERYONE should be blaming more than the offense’s clutch hitting problems. In
this column from last week,
Jayson Stark at
ESPN concluded, with the help of
Bill James, that the Mets would’ve been 6.5 games up in the NL East on Sept. 22 if games lasted just 8 innings. That tells you all you need to know about the Mets relievers (but also a little about how good
Brad Lidge was for the Phillies). If the Mets were 6.5 games up in the NL East going into the final weekend, they wouldn't have needed to rely on the offense to carry the team as it had for much of the summer.
The Mets’ priorities this offseason should be, in order:
1) shoring up the awful bullpen
2) figuring out the back end of the rotation
3) finding a power hitting corner OF and/or a 2B who can hit
FYI, here are the bullpen stats for the 8 playoff teams.
Phillies: 3.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 15 blown saves
Brewers: 3.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 26 blown saves
Cubs: 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 24 blown saves
Dodgers: 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 20 blown saves
Rays: 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 16 blown saves
Red Sox: 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 22 blown saves
White Sox: 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 18 blown saves
Angels: 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 23 blown saves
Again, the
Mets: 4.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 29 blown saves
The Mets bullpen is by far worse than any of these teams’. Even the Brewers bullpen, featuring the truly dreadful
Eric Gagne and
Guillermo Mota, was superior. I cannot say this enough – THE METS BULLPEN COST THEM THE PLAYOFFS IN 2008, NOT THE OFFENSE! Sportswriters, radio personalities, commenters: please stop saying the “core” of
David Wright,
Jose Reyes, and
Carlos Beltran is the problem and needs to be broken up. If the Mets front office does not make a significant attempt to fix the glaring bullpen issues, then fans have legitimate reason to be annoyed going into 2009. Stay tuned for my recommendations for the Mets deficiencies.