Javier Vazquez traded to the Braves

The object of my offseason affection, Javier Vazquez, has been traded to the Braves. He will reportedly be headed to Atlanta along with lefty relief pitcher Boone Logan. It has not been confirmed which players Atlanta is sending to the White Sox, but possibilities include shortstop Brent Lillibridge, pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes and catcher Tyler Flowers. If the Braves give up Lillibridge and Reyes for Vazquez I'm going to scream - they will receive a much better deal than the White Sox. I'll hold off commenting on the trade until terms are finalized.

Scratch Vazquez off my list of potential starters for the last 2 spots in the Mets rotation. Available pitchers who I'd like to see fill the spots are:

- Derek Lowe
- Randy Wolf
- Ben Sheets
- Andy Sonnanstine
- Nate Robertson
- Odalis Perez
....and....
- Randy Johnson

Mets Geek column: Available and underrated starting pitchers

My weekly Mets Geek column is linked here, where I look at solid 2nd tier starting pitchers who may be available via trade or are free agents. I used the fielding independent statistic "FIP" for the basis of the analysis. No surprise that I recommend seeking a trade to acquire my favorite White Sox pitcher, Javier Vazquez.

While I'm glad Omar Minaya is being patient this offseason (compared to last year's trigger-happy Luis Castillo signing on Nov. 19), it's frustrating that nothing is happening. It's like the movie "Jarhead" - lots of waiting, not much action.

Rob Neyer is a Javier Vazquez fan

Rumors of the Mets interest in Javier Vazquez have circulated from various reliable sources. What's known is that the White Sox are looking to trade him. What's not 100% known is if the Mets are interested and what it will take to acquire him. I posted last week that I fully support trading for Javi Vazquez, as he is a solid, underappreciated pitcher. Today, the great Rob Neyer from espn.com (subscription only) agreed:

"Here's a question: Which teams wouldn't have interest in Javier Vazquez?... The White Sox will trade Vazquez to any team that will simply take on the remaining $23 million on his contract? There's going to be a line around the block. But this is not a salary-dump situation. If somebody gets Vazquez it'll cost them $23 million and a solid prospect or two. Maybe he's not the guy to win the big game for you. But he's definitely one of the guys who will get you to the big games."

Neyer has long been the most rational and possibly best baseball writer out there. It's hard to disagree with him on most of what he writes, and this passage is no different. I've read on some Mets blogs today generally negative thoughts on Vazquez. However, none of these posts were based in statistical or objective thinking - they were based on Mike Francesca type statements, i.e. "he's not clutch", "he can't handle the limelight", "he chokes in big games", etc.

Go get Vazquez if you can, Omar Minaya. The thought of this rotation is beautiful:

1. Johan Santana
2. Derek Lowe
3. Javier Vazquez
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. John Maine

Yes, Vazquez is better than Pelfrey (right now).

Javier Vazquez: Available and underrated

According to a report in the Chicago Sun-Times (via MLBTradeRumors), White Sox GM Kenny Williams's biggest priority this offseason is trading 32 year-old Javier Vazquez. Vazquez fell out of favor with White Sox manager/lunatic Ozzie Guillen towards the end of 2008 after pitching miserably in his final 3 starts. Williams reportedly seeks an infielder in return. Vazquez is owed $11.5 million a year from 2009-2010.

Based on this report, it seems as if the White Sox are willing to sell low on Vazquez. I would be in favor of his acquisition, assuming the Mets don't have to surrender Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez or some other comparable top prospect. Vazquez has been an underrated pitcher over the last 9 years or so, and had the bad luck of pitching for some terrible defensive clubs, namely the early 2000's Expos and the 2006-2008 White Sox. While his career ERA is 4.32, his career FIP, "fielding independent pitching" (what you would expect his ERA to be, based on K's, BB's, HR allowed) is 3.93. ERA as a stat is heavily influenced by the defense played behind a pitcher. FIP removes this factor. (Note: other defense independent stats include dERA and DICE)

Consider this excerpt from a post about Vazquez at FanGraphs by Eric Seidman:

"From 2000-2008, there are only six starting pitchers who made at least 190 starts, with a K/9 above 8.0 and a BB/9 below 3.0, and Vazquez has the highest inclusive ERA of them all at 4.11. For good measure, the others are: Pedro Martinez (2.99), Randy Johnson (3.25), Jake Peavy (3.25), Roger Clemens (3.34), and Josh Beckett (3.78)."

ERA is a useful stat, enabling one to gain a general understanding of a pitcher's success. However, peripheral stats and defense independent pitching stats should also be considered when determing a pitcher's expected future performance. The Mets are a great defensive club, as Baseball Prospectus lists their defensive efficiency in 2008 at 2nd in the NL and 6th in all of baseball. This fact would go a long way in improving Vazquez's ERA. To sum up, the Mets should look to make a play for Vazquez, as it appears he will be available for a fraction of what he's really worth.