Lowe/Fuentes vs. Perez/Rodriguez

Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $23.75 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 11.6

Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $24.33 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 7.5

The listed contracts exclude any options. Lowe and Fuentes cost slightly less but are more valuable. OK, I promise I'm done playing Monday Morning Quarterback with this Ollie signing.

How about Andy Pettitte?

My first choice for the Mets open rotation spot(s) is Ben Sheets. When healthy, he is a dominant, #1 type pitcher. I think Omar Minaya is reluctant to go after Sheets because he fears him turning into a younger version of injury prone Pedro Martinez and El Duque. I see Andy Pettitte as the next best option. Compare the FIP's of various pitchers:

Pettitte is not that big a dropoff from Derek Lowe. Forget Oliver Perez. The reason Pettitte isn't getting the respect he deserves this offseason was his inflated ERA (4.54 in 2008) due to bad luck and poor defense (see: Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano). He is a near lock for 200 IP even at age 36 and would be the #2 pitcher in the rotation. FanGraphs pegs Pettitte's 1-year contract value at $15 million and BtB said $14 million. He turned down 1-year and $10 million from the Yankees, and I would love to see the Mets offer as much as $12-13 million for 1 year of Pettitte's services.

The Derek Lowe fallout

Derek Lowe signed with the Braves today for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news because:

1) Lowe was the best remaining starter on the market and I wanted the Mets to sign him.
2) He signed with the Braves, who now have the best rotation in the NL East: Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and Tim Hudson (if he returns from injury)
3) This likely drives up the price for supposed "Plan B" option, Oliver Perez. As I wrote at Mets Geek today, Lowe is far superior to Ollie. I get the feeling many Met fans think they're close in value, but they simply aren't. Seriously, compare their FIP's and $$ value's based on the stat WAR over the last 2 seasons:

Lowe
2007: 3.97 - $13.1 million
2008: 3.26 - $15.8 million

Perez
2007: 4.35 - $8.5 million
2008: 4.68 - $5.3 million

I'd prefer it if Omar Minaya signed Ben Sheets, as Sheets is the last dominating pitcher left on the market. This seems unlikely. Apparently Omar is a huge fan of Ollie, so I think the Mets will go after him hard. This is not a problem, as long as the Mets do not overpay for him and have $$ leftover to sign Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez. However, if the Mets eventually sign Ollie for anything resembling 4 years, $52 million I plan to buy the URL: http://www.fiya-minaya.com/ (think "fire Minaya").

Mets Geek Column: Lowe vs. Perez

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I argue in favor of signing Derek Lowe over Oliver Perez. I think it's pretty clear Lowe is the better pitcher, even for the next 3-4 years. I'm dreading a scenario where the Braves sign Lowe for 4 years, $56 million, then the Mets lock up Ollie for 4 years, $52 million.

***EDIT***: Well Lowe signed with the Braves for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news for so many reasons. More to come later.

FIP+ and the 2009 Mets rotation

A pitching statistic I have frequently used here is FIP (“fielding independent pitching”). It is superior to ERA for pitcher evaluation, as it removes the variables a pitcher has no control over – defense, bullpen, and luck. Instead, it focuses on outcomes the pitcher controls – strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. It is measured on the same scale as ERA and is better for predicting future performance. Read more about it in the pitching stat glossary section on the top right of the page. FIP+ adjusts a player’s FIP for league and park factors, similar to OPS+ and ERA+. A FIP+ of 100 is league average; a FIP+ of 110 is 10% better than league average. Let’s take a look at the 2008 FIP, FIP+, and ERA of the 2009 Mets starters and prospective Mets starters:

To summarize:
a) I hate to say it, but Johan Santana’s ERA in 2008 was somewhat lucky. His left-on-base % (LOB %) was unsustainably high. Coming off knee surgery, I think his ERA will regress in 2009. Then again, Citi Field may be a pitcher’s park in the mold of Petco Park so maybe his ERA will remain sub-3.00.
b) Derek Lowe was outstanding in 2008. His FIP was 3rd in the league behind Tim Lincecum and Danny Haren. He almost certainly won’t be able to repeat that performance, considering ’08 was a contract year and he’s 35 years old. I still think he’ll be a top tier pitcher for the next couple years – his 2009 Marcel projection has him at a 3.67 FIP. Compare to Santana, who is projected at 3.60 or C.C. Sabathia at 3.16.
c) Oliver Perez was 9% worse than league average in 2008, his contract year. This worries me. Tell me again why he’s worth $12 million a year? Don’t get me wrong – I like Ollie. I just don’t want the Mets to overpay for talent, especially in this off-season of bargains (Yankees signings excluded).
d) As I’ve posted previously, my ideal feasible 2009 Mets rotation would be Santana, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, and Redding, with Niese expected to make a few starts. Let’s see how this group’s FIP+ stacks up with those of the 2008 Phillies and Cubs, the top 2 teams in the NL last year:

Obviously we can’t expect these pitchers to perfectly match their 2008 performance. However, coupled with an improved bullpen and one of the top offenses in the league, the 2009 Mets would look pretty strong with this rotation.

Thanks to BtB for the FIP+ numbers.

Links: Citi Field, Derek Lowe, Will Ohman and Rickey Henderson!

Here's some links to peruse while you ponder why Rickey Henderson's helmet always looked 3 sizes too small:

1) Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue takes a look at how pitcher-friendly Citi Field will be. He interviews Greg Rybarczyk of the excellent home run tracking site Hit Tracker Online, who summed up his take on Citi Field in the Hardball Times Annual 2009 by writing:

"Citi Field, the new ballpark for the New York Mets, is poised to become MLB's new Grand Canyon." - YIKES!

2) Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog reports that today's meeting between Omar Minaya and Scott Boras (agent for Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, and Manny Ramirez) went well. Apparently, they only discussed Lowe and it looks like it will take some kind of 4th year option to secure the tall sinkerballer.
***EDIT***: Anthony DiComo of mlb.com now says Minaya spoke with Boras about Lowe, Perez, and Ramirez. Maybe a package deal for all 3?

3) David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via MLBTradeRumors) writes that free agent lefty reliever Will Ohman prefers to stay with the Braves "if offers are equal, etc." . This is code for "I'll sign wherever the money is." Last week I wrote at Mets Geek that the Mets need to sign another lefty reliever, just in case Pedro Feliciano gets hurt or is ineffective. Ohman is my top choice, especially because he's not just a lefty specialist - he held righties to a .700 OPS against in 2008.

4) Atleast one Hall of Fame voter left Rickey Henderson off of his ballot. This is sheer lunacy - even the biggest haters have to admit that Rickey is a no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Famer. Check out Home Run Derby's compilation of the published HOF votes by sportswriters across the country. It's a quick and easy way to see which voters have a brain and which don't. Hint: anyone who votes for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven is brainless.

Brad Penny to the Red Sox: Mets have clear path to Derek Lowe

Sean McAdam of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox have signed RHP Brad Penny:

Penny’s deal, which will be finalized tomorrow pending a physical exam and completion of contractual language, will pay the 30-year-old a base salary of $5 million. The deal has the potential to pay Penny $3 million more in bonuses, beginning with a 160-innings-pitched threshold and escalating from there.

This is great news for the Mets' pursuit of Derek Lowe, as the Red Sox now have 5 starting pitchers on their roster (Penny, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester). The possibility remains that the Sox will go after Lowe and move Wakefield to the bullpen but that seems unlikely at this point. Any remaining suitor for Lowe will not have the financial resources the Mets do, so the Mets should be able to match or beat any other teams' offer. Get us Lowe, get us Lowe, get us Lowe.

Mets Geek column: Mets Holiday Carols

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I present some new holiday carols with a Mets theme. The songs are:

1) "Jerry 'The Gangster' Manuel" (set to "Rudolph the Red-Nose Reindeer")
2) "J.J. Putz Rocks" (set to "Jingle Bell Rock")
3) "Get Us Lowe" (set to "Let It Snow")

Mull over Barry Bonds during the holiday, and let's hope Omar Minaya can indeed get us Derek Lowe.

Derek Lowe updates

Check out this column from Bryan Hoch at mlb.com, which speculates that the Red Sox and Mets are the remaining top contenders in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes. Lowe is one another one of my offseason obsessions, and I feel the need to comment on a couple quotes from this column. First up:

"The Red Sox may take a closer look, however, if the price tag comes down to the arena of four years and $52 million. Those figures may also interest the Mets..."

Holy schnikes, if Lowe can be had for 4 years and $60 million or less the Mets must-must-must sign him. I'd pay even more for him, but I can't see the Mets ponying up much more than $60 million. Why do I have this awful feeling that Oliver Perez will be signed for like 4 years, $48 million and Lowe will end up in Boston for 4 years, $56 million? Next quote:

"'With me, it's all about winning,' Lowe said. 'The team with the best chance of winning, year in and year out, is where I want to go. Scott [Boras] understands that. I've already had clubs contact us that are interested, but they're not ready to win. Scott knows that's my No. 1 priority, and he's looking out for my best interest. He's done exactly what I've been talking about.'"

Really Derek? I know this is what athletes are programmed to say, but just cool it with remarks like this. Your agent is Scott Boras, comparer of Ollie Perez to Sandy Koufax. If Lowe doesn't sign with the Mets, I'd love to see a "team with the best chance of winning" like the Orioles or Nationals get him. Best post ever... good night.

Don't get cheap on me Jeff Wilpon

The economy sucks, and I fear that the Mets will use it as an excuse for not spending this offseason. This excuse would be unacceptable, as the Mets were 2nd in baseball in attendance and 3rd in average ticket price in 2008. They have a TV network and a brand new stadium, featuring higher ticket prices but with about 10,000 fewer seats.

The Mets 2008 payroll was about $138-140 million. By my calculation, the projected 2009 payroll based only on players currently under contract is about $100-$102 million. This includes predictions about future raises to guys like Ryan Church and Aaron Heilman, as well as money still owed Billy Wagner. This leaves, conservatively, $36 million available for spending if they wanted to simply meet 2008's payroll. The luxury tax level is $162 million for 2009.

$36 million is no small chunk of change to work with, and I think they should be able to spend maybe $45 million without significantly hurting their financial statements. (Note: I have not inspected the Mets' books, so my $45 million figure is pretty arbitrary. I do think a $148 million 2009 payroll is reasonable though.) With this assumption, I see no reason why the Mets shouldn't be able to offer the following:

- 4 years, $60 million to Derek Lowe
- 2 years, $20 million to Brian Fuentes
- 2 years, $24 million to Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell

This comes to roughly $37 million, leaving a few million for scrap heap bullpen signings as well. Lowe and Fuentes were offered arbitration so the Mets would lose 2 draft picks if both signed. However, when another team unwisely signs Oliver Perez for like 4 years and $50 million, the Mets would get 2 picks in return. Some might balk at paying Lowe $15 million a season, but even this amount might be lower than what he's actually worth. I'm all for trading for Huston Street, if possible.

The crappy economy is indeed crappy. I have witnessed it's wrath firsthand in the form of layoffs of friends and 401(k) value decreases. However, if the Mets use it as a crutch for not spending this offseason, I'm going to call B.S. To paraphrase Dennis Nedry (as played by Wayne Knight) in Jurassic Park, "Don't get cheap on me Wilpon."