Evaluating Mets Baserunning

I wrote an evaluation of the 2008 Mets non-stolen base/caught stealing baserunning at Amazin' Avenue. Using Baseball Prospectus's baserunning stats, we can see how many runs above or below average a player contributes by advancing on groundouts, flyouts, hits, passed balls and wild pitches. Surprise surprise, in 2008 Jose Reyes was the best baserunner on the Mets, and also the best in the National League. David Wright was the worst baserunner on the Mets in 2008.

A David Wright celebration

Happy 26th birthday to David Wright, one of the top 5 position players in baseball. I present a few of my favorite David related columns/links from the last few months:

1) This column from SNY's Ted Berg which tells us that:

"Wright is the Mets' rock, the core of their core, a recognizable All-Star and one of the best players in the game. "

Core of the core. I like that.

2) Mets Geek's Pat Andriola wishes Met fans realized just how good Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are in this column:

"We should applaud Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for their fantastic seasons, not whine that they should have done more."

3) Lastly, a post I made back in September about the myth of long-term clutch-hitting ability and how David should be just fine hitting w/RISP in the future:

"The next time you hear Mike Francesca or some other windbag screaming about how the Mets should trade Wright or Jose Reyes because they are not "clutch", simply re-read this post and remind yourself how ridiculous they sound."

Should a pitcher be considered for MVP?

In a post at Amazin' Avenue, Jessica Bader goes FJM on the latest Mets Mailbag from Marty Noble on mets.com. I'm not posting to call out Noble for his poor answers to questions (I already did that last offseason). I was struck by a great point Jessica makes regarding consideration of pitchers for the MVP Award. A common argument against doing this is that everyday players appear in 140-162 games whereas starting pitchers usually appear in 30-34 games. For instance, David Wright played in 160 games, while Johan Santana played in 34. Noble states that for this reason, Wright is the Mets MVP instead of Johan, and also more viable as a candidate for NL MVP. Jessica writes:

"This is the sort of argument that's usually advanced to justify excluding pitchers from MVP consideration, and quite frankly it's a load of bull. If you think of baseball as a series of pitcher/batter confrontations, it stands to reason that the more showdowns a player participates in, the more opportunities he has to impact the outcome of a game. In 2008, David Wright had 736 plate appearances. Johan Santana faced 964 batters."

This is fantastic, and something I had never thought of. Granted, it takes a truly special year for a pitcher to win MVP (Roger Clemens in 1986, Pedro Martinez in 1999 who should've won but didn't), and I'm not saying Johan or any other NL pitcher should be MVP. However, pitchers should not be discounted from consideration simply because they are pitchers.

2008 Mets Team MVP

I’ve been inspired by a thoughtful post at Hot Foot Blog to do my own analysis of the Mets team MVP in 2008. I’ll look at 3 stats: VORP, WPA, and WARP, which I think are useful for making an MVP ballot. To save time, I’ll only look at Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, and David Wright as candidates.

To start off, here are the important traditional stats for the fab 5:
Beltran: .284/.376/.500, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25/28 SB
Delgado: .271/.353/.518, 38 HR, 115 RBI, 1/2 SB
Reyes: .297/.358/.475, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56/71 SB
Santana: 2.53 ERA, 234.1 IP, 3.27 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, 163 ERA+
Wright: .302/.390/.534, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15/20 SB

To refresh memories, VORP stands for “value over replacement player.” A player’s offensive performance is compared to a “replacement level” player at the same position. This fictitious player is a low-level player who is readily available at cheap cost. A position player’s VORP represents how many more runs his team would score over the course of a season than if a replacement player was in the lineup instead. A pitcher’s VORP represents how many more runs his team would give up over the course of a season compared to the replacement pitcher.

1. Johan Santana – 73.4
2. David Wright – 66.2
3. Jose Reyes – 62.9
4. Carlos Beltran – 57.6
5. Carlos Delgado – 38.5

If Santana was switched with a replacement pitcher, the Mets would’ve given up 73.4 more runs. Reyes rates so high because great offensive shortstops are tough to come by. Delgado rates so low because great offensive first basemen are a-dime-a-dozen. Note that VORP doesn’t factor in stolen bases.

WPA, “win probability added”, is a fascinating statistic. It was created based on the concept that every play in a baseball game, whether it is a ground out, strikeout or homerun, will add or subtract from a team’s probability of winning a game. For different outcomes, a player’s WPA will increase or decrease based on how much each play adds or subtracts from his team’s chance to win. It is a rudimentary way to measure “clutchness”, as it weighs a player’s performance based on the situation. This is to say that a walkoff homerun will add much more to a player’s WPA than will a homerun hit when already ahead by 7 runs. A scoreless inning pitched in a blowout is not weighed as heavily as a scoreless 9th inning pitched in a 1-run game.

1. Carlos Beltran – 5.02
2. David Wright – 4.18
3. Johan Santana – 4.08
4. Carlos Delgado – 2.38
5. Jose Reyes – 1.32

This does not necessarily mean that Beltran was the most “clutch” player for the Mets this year. It simply means his offensive contributions resulted in a greater probability of the Mets winning than did the other players. Despite being 3rd on this list, it should be noted that starting pitchers’ WPA’s are generally lower than batters. Santana was 4th in the majors in WPA, while Beltran was 6th. Cliff Lee led pitchers with a 5.96 WPA; Manny Ramirez led all hitters with a 7.57 WPA.

WARP1 is a stat I don’t think I’ve looked at yet in this space. It’s similar to VORP, but measures “wins above replacement player”. It accounts for both offense and defense, and determines how many wins a player contributes compared to a fictitious “replacement player” at the respective player’s position. Unfortunately, I couldn't locate Santana's WARP1, so he will not be evaluated here. Based on a quick Internet search, I don't think a WARP1 leader's list for pitchers is readily accessible. If someone can find one, please let me know. At this point I think Johan’s spot on my ballot is pretty secure…

1. Wright – 9.6
2. Beltran – 9.3
3. Reyes – 8.8
4. Delgado – 7.8

Based on these stats, my ballot would look like this:
1. Johan Santana
2. David Wright
3. Carlos Beltran
4. Jose Reyes
5. Carlos Delgado

Santana led the league in ERA and was pretty impressive in VORP and WPA. I think this is a safe pick. When was the last time a Mets starting pitcher could convincingly be called the team MVP? Dwight Gooden in 1985? Bret Saberhagen in 1994? I’d have to look it up. There will be those calling me a fool for putting Reyes above Delgado based on Jose’s poor, but not downright awful, September. To them I say that I look at a baseball season as 162 games long. The overall contribution of a player towards scoring and preventing runs over a full season is more important to me than a 10 or 3 game sample. Also, while Delgado did have a very good season, the fact that he plays first base (and not very well defensively at that) hurt his standing on my ballot. The #2 spot is a virtual toss-up, and you can't go wrong with Wright or Beltran in this spot.

David Wright vs. Mike Piazza

Last night vs. the Cubs, David Wright tied Mike Piazza’s single season club record of 124 RBI, set in 1999. Ironically enough, it was on a sacrifice fly, which D-Wright couldn’t provide in the 9th inning on Wednesday. I am not a big fan of the RBI as a statistic for evaluating a player’s performance. I’ve covered this before, but to sum it up, the RBI depends too much on other player’s performances to be valuable as an individual player’s metric. To this end, here is a comparison between Wright’s and Piazza’s seasons, featuring statistics besides just straight-up RBI:

Overall:
Wright: 723 PA, .300/.389/.536, 33 HR, 42 2B
Piazza: 593 PA, .303/.361/.575, 40 HR, 25 2B

Total runners on base during PA:
Wright: 372
Piazza: 345

Runners on 2B during PA:
Wright: 152
Piazza: 135

Runners on 3B during PA:
Wright: 115
Piazza: 84

w/RISP:
Wright: .243/.328/.376
Piazza: .293/.356/.461

2 outs, RISP:
Wright: .247/.376/.416
Piazza: .323/.457/.585


Wright’s performance with RISP this season has been highly scrutinized, and justifiably so. Piazza’s 1999 was head and shoulders above Wright’s, as far as RBI efficiency goes. I really hope all of this “D-Rod” type criticism of Wright doesn’t stick, because he’s been just fine in the past with RISP. I’m calling this season an aberration. Additionally, “Piazza’s hands are SO STRONG”, as Fran Healy would have said – much stronger than Wright’s.

Tuesday, September 23 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Cubs 2

Johan Santana, Jose Reyes, and David Wright came up big in a game that was ABSOLUTELY a must-win (despite what Lee Mazzilli said on SNY). Yes, the Cubs lineup was without Jim Edmonds, Geovany Soto and Aramis Ramirez, but this is a huge win nonetheless. Guillermo Mota tried his best to help out his old club by giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to the Pirates in the 8th (to Steve Pearce, career OPS .673, 2 career homers). However, a Brewers loss was not meant to be. Prince Fielder redeemed Mota in the 9th with a walk-off homer. In Philadelphia, Mike Hampton outdueled Cole Hamels to beat the Phillies 3-2. The Mets pulled to 1.5 back of Philly, and my finger is off the panic button for a day. Here are your game thoughts:

- Johan looked a little iffy at the outset, but settled down to pitch a really dominant game: 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 10 K. He even scored 2 runs at the plate. Let's hope he doesn't have to pitch again during the regular season...

- Wright and Reyes were on base a total of 6 times tonight, and each delivered one of the biggest hits of the season. Wright's 2-run single in the 5th and Reyes's 3-run triple were huge.

- Mark Mulder clone Sean Marshall looked like he was going to pull a Joel Pineiro
through the first 4 innings. He ended up K'ing 7 in 5 innings, but thankfully the Mets got to him in the 5th.

- I knew Gary Cohen would bring up the "black cat game" from Mets-Cubs in 1969 after Johan's bizarre infield single in the 5th. The similarities are kind of funny. The batted ball bounced off of the shard of Johan's broken bat on the infield grass near 2nd base. If the Mets make the playoffs this too could become a memorable Mets event.

The Mets announced that Sunday's Shea Stadium festivities will take place following the game. I think this is risky, considering the Mets haven't locked up a playoff spot yet. I guess it's tough to have the ceremony before the 1:10 start though. 5 games left, 1 up in the Wild Card. Finish the job Mets.

Sunday, September 14 Game Thoughts: Braves 7 - Mets 4

Despite the efforts of David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Oliver Perez, the Mets couldn't win a 3 game series against a Braves team which threw in the towel a long time ago. We'll all hear plenty more about this year compared to the collapse of '07, and justifiably so. Here are your game thoughts:

- The Braves pitching staff, since the All Star break:

5.98 ERA, .822 OPS against, 1.58 WHIP

And the Mets managed 11 runs in 3 games this weekend. Brilliant!

- Oliver Perez gave a valiant effort, providing the 3rd straight excellent start by a Met lefty. He even got a hit today, scoring on a heads up baserunning play in the 4th inning. For all the talk of Ollie being a space-case free spirit, he sure as hell looked like he wants to win more than any other player on that field.

- D-Wright is having another great September. David's at .372/.420/.721, 4 homers, 11 RBI for the month.

- Ryan Church was great prior to his injuries, but he has struggled since coming back. He left 5 on base today, and has looked pretty helpless against lefties. The Mets as a whole left 12 on base, including 7 in scoring position.

- The bullpen. Ah yes, the bullpen. Luis Ayala had zilch today, and gave up a massive 3 run bomb to 36 year old journeyman Greg Norton. Norton's ESPN.com page lists his 2008 salary at $0, which is clearly inaccurate. However, it gives a funny idea of the kind of player the Mets bullpen is capable of blowing a game against. Add this game to the list which followed the 2008 Mets formula:

a) score a bunch early
b) great starting pitching
c) stop scoring runs
d) bullpen blows it dramatically.

I'm worried, because there are no off days between now and game 162. I'm a little less worried, because the next 4 are at Nationals Park, against a hapless team in a stadium which will be half full of Mets fans. Check back here for a list of the Top 10 single seasons for Mets closers. How appropriate I choose to make this list today. Go Brewers tonight vs. the Phillies.

Wednesday, September 10 Game Thoughts: Mets 13 - Nationals 10

On a night when the Mets gave up 10 runs to the last place Nationals, the offense came through to save the game. That's what good teams do: when one part of the team has a bad night (pitching), another part can pick them up (hitting). Someone please tell me the next 17 games will not be like the previous two?! Here are your game thoughts:

- Every Mets position player contributed offensively. Even Ryan Church, who went 0-3, was on base with 2 BB, scoring twice. Nights like this remind us just how good the Mets lineup is. Read the 3rd inning play-by-play for proof.

- David Wright blew up tonight, going 4-4 with a BIG insurance homer, 3 RBI, and a BB. Throw in gaudy stat lines from Carlos Beltran and Fernando Tatis, and you've got the makings of a pretty boxscore.

- Congrats to Jose Reyes, who now owns the Mets all time stolen base record with 282. I feel that Reyes is still stealing bases on natural running ability alone, rather than stolen base technique. Maybe one of these years he can figure it out and cut down those caught stealings just a bit.

- Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Brian Stokes, and Luis Ayala alternated crappy and effective performances. Heilman just can't sink any lower, and I fear that he would be left off the hypothetical playoff roster. Stokes came back down to earth tonight. I bet he and his overworked right arm are looking forward to the day off tomorrow and maybe a complete game bullpen saver from Johan Santana on Friday.

- Cristian Guzman had 6 homeruns in 555 PA's coming into this series. He's hit 3 in his last 10 PA's. Amazing. Neither one of his bombs tonight were cheap.

- Luis Castillo must not even be on Jerry Manuel's radar if he's subbing Argenis Reyes for Damion Easley. To Reyes's credit, he made a great play in the field to back Ayala in the 9th. He remains an automatic out at the plate though.

- I can see why Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge were both traded before the age of 24, despite great talent and potential. Both whined about calls by the home plate umpire tonight, and Dukes especially distinguished himself as the biggest head case/pain in the ass in the league on 2 other occasions. His staredown with Mike Pelfrey was absurd, and his stroll off the field in the 9th as he had words with Met fans was John Rocker-esque.

- Keith Hernandez quote of the night: "Milledge is playing out in Suffolk County." - regarding how deep L-Millz was playing in centerfield.

The Mets are now 3.5 games up on the Phillies, with 17 to play (sound vaguely familiar?). The Mets will not face Jair Jurrjens (the Braves young "ace") this weekend, and somehow the Phils won't face C.C. Sabathia in their 4 game set against Milwaukee. Now is the time to put the hammer down, and what better way to do it than with Johan starting Friday night.

David Wright and runners in scoring position

One facet of baseball statistics I love is they can be used to prove or disprove a personal perception of a player. Examples would be “I think Jose Reyes gets on base an awful lot” or “Seems like John Maine walks a lot of batters.” Today I’m going to take a quick look at my perception (which is shared by many Met fans) that David Wright has not hit well with runners on base/in scoring position.

Here are Wright's 2008 BA/OBP/SLG:

Overall: .291/.385/.517 for a .901 OPS
W/RISP: .242/.332/.385 for a .717 OPS – YIKES!

This is a significant drop-off, but nothing to be alarmed about in the long run. Take a look at these two figures:

Wright, career: .307/.387/.529 for a .917 OPS
Wright, career w/ RISP: .302/.398/.508 for a .906 OPS

These numbers are basically identical. In the long run, he should be just fine with RISP. I’m thinking (hoping) that this season is just an aberration.

He is currently tied for 2nd in the NL with 100 RBI. Now, after seeing his stats w/RISP, you’d have to wonder how he has so many “Ribeye Steaks” as Keith Hernandez says. Here is your explanation:

For the season:
Total runners on base during Wright PA’s: 314, 1st in NL
Runners on 2nd base during Wright PA’s: 134, 6th in NL (Carlos Beltran is 2nd)
Runners on 3rd base during Wright PA’s: 94, 1st in NL (and 2nd place has just 78!)

D-Wright is 2nd in the NL in RBI because he is given the chance to drive in runs more than any other player. He has driven in 12.7% of all runners on 2nd base during his PA's, and 43.6% of runners on 3rd base. The 2nd base % is pretty awful, though the 3rd base % isn't bad, and is good for 8th in the NL.

(Side note: Accumulation stats, like RBI and runs, are not nearly as telling about a player’s ability as percentage stats, like OBP and SLG. The RBI statistic is quite flawed, for the reasons you have read here. The NL RBI leader? Ryan Howard, who could end up with the worst 40 homer, 130 RBI season in history. )

I think David Wright is one of the elite players in the game. He has had an extremely productive season, and is making great strides in the field. He is on of my favorites, and I couldn’t be happier that he is a Met. However, the numbers say we should take his large RBI total with a grain of salt.

Wednesday, August 27 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Phillies 3

This game singlehandedly reversed Tuesday’s nightmare, and then some. For a change, the Mets dominated innings 7, 8, and 9, at the plate, in the field, and, most importantly, on the mound. Here are your game thoughts:

- CARLOS DELGADO!!! - hitting like it's 1999.
- DANIEL MURPHY!!! - mashing against the best closer in the NL.
- BRIAN SCHNEIDER!!! - hitting the jackpot with the luckiest 2 RBI hit in recent Mets history.

- Right before Murphy’s big 8th inning double, I was thinking “It’s about time to induct Murphy into the small sample size hall of fame, along with Shane Spencer, Benny Agbayani and Timo Perez.” I was happy to be proven wrong.

- Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith and Luis Ayala shockingly combined for 3 scoreless innings, with Stokes looking impressive yet again. Jerry Manuel should keep putting Stokes out there in meaningful spots until he gives reason not to. In 17 IP, Stokes has a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 K and 3 BB.

- If I’m a Phillies fan, I have to be upset at Charlie Manuel’s use of Brad Lidge. The guy is unhittable, and you leave Rudy Seanez in to face Delgado, who was 3-6 with 2 homers against Seanez in his career. You need to bring in your bullpen ace at that point of the game. Also, Lidge made Delgado look silly in last night’s game, striking him out with ease.

Despite my heaping praise of Lidge, great job by the Mets getting to him. He’s been having some injury problems recently, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him head for a DL stint a la Billy Wagner. (side note: this is not to say I wish physical harm on Lidge; I’m just saying if he was injured, I wouldn’t be heartbroken; second side note: upset of the series - Aaron Heilman outpitched fellow Notre Dame alum Lidge)

- David Wright’s play in the field during August could fill a highlight reel. His 8th inning catch and throw to beat the speedy “Phlyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino at 1st was spectacular. David's performance at the plate in these 2 games left a lot to be desired, however.

This quote, from Ron Darling, perfectly captured the Mets experience: “Never has there been a team with a 14-6 record in their last 20 games, which was capable of creating so much angst."

Tomorrow’s day off will be much more enjoyable for the Mets and their fans after tonight. Rest up and recharge for a 3 game set against a struggling Marlins team this weekend.

Thursday, August 21 Game Thoughts: Mets 5 - Braves 4

This was one of the most enjoyable, satisfying wins of the season. David ("MVP?") Wright went 3-4 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk. He also made 2 exceptional defensive plays. Carlos Delgado went nuts, going 5-5 with 3 RBI, including the game winning "hit" off of Omar Infante's glove in the 9th. Here are your game thoughts:

- Infante playfully taunted the fans behind the leftfield wall after catching Fernando Tatis's extra base bid in the bottom of the 7th - a little karma since Infante then embarrassed himself trying to catch Delgado's 9th inning liner.

- Pedro Martinez was generally effective, save Yunel Escobar's leadoff homer and Brian McCann's 2 run double. His 6 K's and 1 BB were an encouraging sign for the rest of the season.

- Welcome to New York Luis Ayala!

- Mets pitching held Chipper Jones under wraps this week, as he went 2-10 with no extra base hits, although he did walk 5 times for a series OBP of .466.

- I loved D-Wright's unnecessary "Slip-n-Slide" dive into home to end the game, as well as the 9th inning team rally caps.

Break up the Nationals - their big win against the Phils puts the Mets 2.5 games up in the NL East. Life is good (for now) for Met fans. The pesky Astros come to town this weekend, and hopefully things will go better than the last Mets-'Stros series from a couple weeks back. The hopefully epic Johan Santana vs. Roy Oswalt duel is not to be missed tonight.