Players who will regress or bounce back in 2009

Using statistical indicators like FIP, LD%, BABIP, and xBABIP I compiled a list of players who I think will regress in 2009 compared to 2008, and who will improve or bounce back in 2009. I included players from all teams, not just the Mets.

Mets Geek column: Bracing for disappointment

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I take a look at 4 Mets who may regress from their 2008 performances based on statistical indicators and injury potential. They are Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Murphy, and Fernando Tatis. I hope all of them have awesome years, but there are definitely concerns about each of these players' production declining for various reasons.

Thursday, September 25 Game Thoughts: Mets 7 - Cubs 6

Carlos Bel-TRAN! (as ESPN's own Jon Miller might say) What better way to rebound from the worst loss of the season by winning the next night in the bottom of the 9th, in just about the most inspiring way possible. You can't make this stuff up. Great job Met fans, about 20,000 of whom stayed vocal at Shea despite hard rain and Ricardo Rincon. Maybe Jim Baumbach at Newsday can rescind this insulting column, where he called out Met fans for booing this season. Here are your less enraged game thoughts:

- Ryan Church must have read my post last night suggesting he be benched. How else to explain his 3-3, 1 BB, 2 RBI breakout night. His bob and weave with Cubs catcher Koy Hill to score the tying run in the 8th joins Johan Santana's broken bat single on Tuesday as the most bizarre but awesome plays of the season. Also, major credit to Fernando Martinez and Robinson Cancel, who made this win possible with 2 out hits.

- Where do I begin with my criticism of Daniel Murphy's disastrous AB in the 9th? Here we go:
a) Bunting is stupid in most situations. Why give up outs unless it's a pitcher batting?
b) This is the same Daniel Murphy who hit a triple last night, and is .325/.408/.496 on the season right? And you want him to attempt to give himself up to move a runner over?
c) Guess how many sacrifice bunts Murphy has successfully executed this season, between the minors and majors. I'll give you a hint, it's less than the number of Mets World Series titles (2), and more than Giuseppe Franco's financial interest in Procede (0). Yes, Murph has ONE sac bunt this year. And he goes up there to bunt in a stressful situation, against a guy throwing 95 mph in the pouring rain. Mindblowing. Luckily, Bel-TRAN redeemed him.
d) Murphy was born 1 day after I was, which has nothing to do with his bunting skill. It's just weird that a guy who's basically the same age as me is playing such a big role in this pennant race.

- My brother came up with a solid New York Post headline, had the Mets lost: "Cubs Scrubs Put on a Clinic". I would've gone with "Feel the Hoff-Power". Micah Hoffpauir had the greatest night of his life, going 5-5 with 2 HR, a 2B and 5 RBI. And he's supposedly fighting for a playoff roster spot. The Mets would gladly borrow him if the Cubs don't need him.

- I really hope the Cubs don't rest Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto and Aramis Ramirez this weekend vs. the Brew Crew. Lou Piniella: please give Carlos Marmol, pretty boy Jeff Samardzija and Kerry Wood plenty of much needed tuneup work this weekend.

- I admit, I turned the game off to watch the premiere of "The Office" following Hoffpauir's 3-run homer. However, I was following the game on ESPN Gamecast simultaneously. The Office did not disappoint, nor did the Mets.

- Boy does Keith Hernandez want the Mets to beat the Phillies for the division. It's his favorite discussion topic. Also, could you imagine Keith as a manager? Every AB would feature a hit and run, and every 3-0 count he'd have his batter swinging away.

Unfortunately Ryan "Lloyd" Braun (to credit an anonymous commenter) put a slight damper on the night's festivities, hitting a walkoff grand slam against the punchless Pirates. The Mets are 1 game back of the Phillies, and are tied with the Brewers in the Wild Card. I'm slightly nervous, given Mike Pelfrey's struggles this year vs. the Marlins (4 G, 19.1 IP, 7.91(!) ERA, 1.81 WHIP).

The Phils likely face John Lannan, Odalis Perez and Shairon Martis this weekend. The Brewers face a formidable trio of Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. The cardiac arrest Mets will be up against Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco, and Scott Olsen, who would love nothing more than to embarrass the Mets on the last weekend of the season for the 2nd year in a row.

Friday, September 19 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Braves 5

Meaningful September baseball is a lot more fun when the Mets win, isn’t it? Daniel Murphy’s pinch hit 2-run double in the 8th opened the floodgates off of 68 year old Julian Tavarez, and the bullpen closed it out despite some sloppy defense. This was the Mets first win in Atlanta this season. Here are your game thoughts:

- Jose Reyes set the tone for the 2nd time this week with a homer to start the game. Minus his throwing error in the 7th, Jose had a brilliant game.

- “Daniel Murphy is unbelievable isn’t he?” – Ron Darling. That about sums it up. He’s living a blessed existence right now, and even made it safe into 2nd base after getting caught in a pickle following his pinch hit double.

- Lately, the Mets bullpen reminds me of an action movie, where one henchman after another go after the good guy and get unceremoniously peaced (the Mets relievers are the henchman). Movie scenes that come to mind: the Crazy 88 vs. Uma Thurman in "Kill Bill"; the Foot Clan vs. the Ninja Turtles; a bunch of gladiators vs. Russell Crowe in "Gladiator" ("Are you not entertained?!"); 118 soldiers vs. Christian Bale in "Equilibrium". I could probably go on all night with this. The ‘pen did pitch well tonight for a change.

- Aaron Heilman picked up probably his biggest out of the year, striking out Omar Infante (the only batter he faced) in the 7th with 2 men on. Maybe Heilman could be useful against righties the rest of the way?

- Funny sight #1: Murphy standing behind Jerry Manuel with a bat in his hand in the dugout during the 8th inning. He looked like a Little Leaguer who wants to be put in the game.

- Funny sight #2: The bullpen camera caught Pedro Feliciano doing some absurd stretching as Nelson Figueroa warmed up. Keith Hernandez on the funny looking stretching: “What is this, Swan Lake?”

The Mets are back in first – for now - after the Phillies lost. The lead is just a half game though. The Brewers got clobbered by the Reds, and are showing no signs of playing winning baseball. They’re bumping up C.C. Sabathia to pitch on 3 days rest, in a last ditch effort to destroy C.C.’s elbow before he departs for free agency, and also to try and win the Wild Card.

Pedro Martinez starts tomorrow. He has been dreadful of late, with a 7.29 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 4 starts. His Braves counterpart, Jorge Campillo, has been just as bad. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his last 4 starts. Look for a high scoring affair.

Tuesday, September 2 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Brewers 5

The Mets beat Brewers for the 2nd day in a row, and continued to raise their fans' blood pressure. Jon Niese's debut was a disaster, and I'll post more about it tomorrow. A brief pregame shot of Niese said it all – he was sitting in the dugout alone, head buried in his hat. I don’t know what was going on, but it was an incredibly uninspiring pose for a guy who was to take the mound momentarily. (Side Note: It was probably more inspiring than the time I threw up before pitching a high school game... although that was due more to eating McDonald's for lunch than nerves. I went 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K's that day vs. last place Wheatley HS) Here are your game thoughts:

- Carlos Beltran’s 3 run homer looked like a popup. It reminded me of Randy Quaid and co. in Major League II: “It’s too high, it can’t be gone”. Click here for my favorite scene from ML2, which features Brewers announcer Bob Uecker.
(***EDIT***: An astute reader pointed out that the "too high" line I referenced from "Major League 2" was actually said in "Major League", and not by Randy Quaid. I don't know how I blew that one, as I've seen both like 30 times. Good catch.)

- Why the HELL is catcher/nose tackle Robinson Cancel attempting to steal bases?!?!?

- It doesn’t get any better than watching Endy Chavez in the OF. His gundown of Rickie Weeks at 2nd in the 8th inning helped keep the game tied. Great defense all around in this game, including Beltran throwing out Ryan Braun at home in the 4th.

- All hail sweet swinging Dan Murphy, who scored on Endy’s sac fly after leading off the 10th with a pinch hit line-drive single.

- I’ve invented an incredibly clever label for game thoughts when the bullpen pitched great: "bullpen brilliance". Tonight was probably the pen’s best performance of the year, as (deep breath) Nelson Figueroa, Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, and Luis Ayala pitched 7 scoreless. That’s SEVEN scoreless by the Mets bullpen. Of course Ayala tried his best for the "bullpen horror show" label, but it was not to be.

- Rickie Weeks on the season: .233/.335/.390 for a .725 OPS, 12 HR
Weeks vs. Mets, 5 games and 24 PA’s: .368/.500/.842 for a 1.342 OPS, 3 HR

Oliver Perez has pitched solidly since Dan Warthen’s promotion to pitching coach. However, his walks are still a concern (11 in his last 18.2 IP). He cannot afford to give the free-swinging Brewers free passes Wednesday afternoon.

Monday, September 1 Game Thoughts: Mets 4 - Brewers 2

This game felt like the equivalent of hitting a 3 pointer at the buzzer to win. Between today and Friday night's Carlos Beltran grand slam game, the Mets have shown more late inning resiliency. Better yet, the Mets won't have to face Ben Sheets, C.C. Sabathia, or the evil Jeff Suppan in the next 2 games. Here are your game thoughts:

- Jose Reyes seems a little too antsy to tie Mookie Wilson's club stolen base record. He was inexplicably thrown out trying to steal 3rd in the 1st inning, and was picked off by Guillermo Mota in the 9th.

- Dan Murphy had an up and down game. Yes, he was on base 3 times, scoring the tying run on Carlos Delgado's 8th inning bomb. However, his bunt attempt in the 1st was both awful and ridiculous. Why should the 2nd batter of the game give himself up when there's a chance for an early big inning against a dominant pitcher? Also, his OF play is problematic, and his misplay of a J.J. Hardy linedrive led to the Brewers' first run.

- After a great game Sunday, David Wright looked totally lost, going 0-5 with 2 K's. His troubles with RISP continued. Ryan Church's 8th inning double provided a bigtime insurance run, and some encouragement about Church returning to early season form.

- Johan Santana ran into some bad luck (Murphy's misplay, a tough 6th inning balk leading to a run), but was pretty effective. 10 K's matched his season high, in just 6 IP.

- To Gary Cohen: Delgado has been incredible for the last 3 months or so, but relax with the MVP talk. It's pretty hard to completely forget Delgado's disastrous April and May. P.S. - Awesome home run off $10 million 'roid user Eric Gagne.

For all that early season talk about Prince Fielder becoming a vegetarian, he looks fatter than ever. It's kind of gross, and I would think a cause of concern for Brewers management, considering he's just 24. As long as he keeps stinking it up against lefties (particularly Jon Niese and Oliver Perez the next 2 games), he can eat whatever he wants as far as I'm concerned. Happy Labor Day.

Wednesday, August 27 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Phillies 3

This game singlehandedly reversed Tuesday’s nightmare, and then some. For a change, the Mets dominated innings 7, 8, and 9, at the plate, in the field, and, most importantly, on the mound. Here are your game thoughts:

- CARLOS DELGADO!!! - hitting like it's 1999.
- DANIEL MURPHY!!! - mashing against the best closer in the NL.
- BRIAN SCHNEIDER!!! - hitting the jackpot with the luckiest 2 RBI hit in recent Mets history.

- Right before Murphy’s big 8th inning double, I was thinking “It’s about time to induct Murphy into the small sample size hall of fame, along with Shane Spencer, Benny Agbayani and Timo Perez.” I was happy to be proven wrong.

- Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith and Luis Ayala shockingly combined for 3 scoreless innings, with Stokes looking impressive yet again. Jerry Manuel should keep putting Stokes out there in meaningful spots until he gives reason not to. In 17 IP, Stokes has a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 K and 3 BB.

- If I’m a Phillies fan, I have to be upset at Charlie Manuel’s use of Brad Lidge. The guy is unhittable, and you leave Rudy Seanez in to face Delgado, who was 3-6 with 2 homers against Seanez in his career. You need to bring in your bullpen ace at that point of the game. Also, Lidge made Delgado look silly in last night’s game, striking him out with ease.

Despite my heaping praise of Lidge, great job by the Mets getting to him. He’s been having some injury problems recently, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him head for a DL stint a la Billy Wagner. (side note: this is not to say I wish physical harm on Lidge; I’m just saying if he was injured, I wouldn’t be heartbroken; second side note: upset of the series - Aaron Heilman outpitched fellow Notre Dame alum Lidge)

- David Wright’s play in the field during August could fill a highlight reel. His 8th inning catch and throw to beat the speedy “Phlyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino at 1st was spectacular. David's performance at the plate in these 2 games left a lot to be desired, however.

This quote, from Ron Darling, perfectly captured the Mets experience: “Never has there been a team with a 14-6 record in their last 20 games, which was capable of creating so much angst."

Tomorrow’s day off will be much more enjoyable for the Mets and their fans after tonight. Rest up and recharge for a 3 game set against a struggling Marlins team this weekend.

Monday, August 25 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Astros 1

Mike Pelfrey and Carlos Delgado were the story tonight. Big Pelf tossed his 2nd straight complete game, narrowly missing a shutout. Carlos clubbed a pair of 3-run homers, the 2nd one off of lefty-specialist Wesley Wright, who had been holding lefties to a .155 average and .489 OPS this season. I flipped a coin, and Carlos won tonight's game MVP award. Here are your game thoughts:

- The majority of Met fans will not agree with me here, but WHY WHY WHY was Pelfrey still in the game with the Mets up 7-0 in the 8th?!?! Yes, he had great stuff. Yes, his pitch count was relatively low. But Mike is now at 163 IP this season, with over a month left. With 30 games to go, this will give Mike about 6 more starts. Averaging a conservative 6 innings per game, he'll finish around 200 IP this season (not counting playoffs, ***fingers crossed***). This is too many for such a young player. Joel Sherman at the NY Post and Ken Davidoff at Newsday have addressed this issue. Jerry Manuel, why not put Brian Stokes or Aaron Heilman in this no pressure game to get them some work and rest Big Mike?

- Looks like Luis Castillo will need some time to shake that rust off.

- Also, it appears opposing teams have gotten together a scouting report on Dan Murphy, as he went 0-3 with 3 K's and is now 4 for his last 22, with 4 walks.

I'm glad to see the Astros get out of town. Hopefully the Mets can build off of tonight's win going to Philly for a quickie 2 game series. The suddenly hot Phillies are coming off a 4 game sweep of the formerly hot Dodgers. Fortunately for the Mets, they won't have to face Cole Hamels or a resurrected Brett Myers. The matchups are:

- Tuesday, August 26 - Pedro Martinez vs. Jamie Moyer
- Wednesday, August 27 - Johan Santana vs. Kyle Kendrick

The longball has been Petey's nemesis of late, and a trip to the hitter's paradise that is Citizens Bank may not help the situation. Moyer has been hot of late, sporting an ERA of 2.51 and a WHIP of 1.19 in 9 July/August starts. A sweep, even in this short get together, would be a huge confidence builder and momentum boost for the home stretch.