Mets Geek column: Adding another lefty to the bullpen

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I advocate signing another lefty to complement Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen. Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes and even Brian Fuentes are free agent options.

In other news, these Andruw Jones rumors are pretty silly. The guy is done as a player and I don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to trade for him, even if he can unload Luis Castillo. Happy new year everybody!

Bob Howry: A perfect fit for the Mets

The Cubs declined to offer arbitration to Type A free agent reliever Bob Howry. This means any team that signs him would not have to forfeit any draft picks. On the surface, Howry is a 35 year old in the twilight of a solid career who posted a 5.35 ERA in 2008. Digging deeper, he is actually just the kind of low-cost, undervalued, potential bounce-back pitcher the Mets could use in their bullpen.

Let's look at his relevant statistics:

The reason for his poor ERA in 2008 is a combination of too many homeruns allowed and bad luck. The HR/9 is troublesome, but his HR/FB% was 3% higher than his career average. Citi Field projects as a pitcher's park, while Wrigley Field is a hitter's park, so the homers would likely decrease. His BABIP was absurdly high, especially considering his strong 17.9 LD%. I feel confident in saying that Bob Howry was quite unlucky in 2008. The average mph on his fastball dropped a tick, down to 91.2 mph from 92.3 mph in 2007. Additionally, he threw a slider 23.7% of the time, compared to just 9.7% in 2007 - perhaps this was the cause of his problems with the longball?

Not every member of a bullpen can be Francisco Rodriguez or Huston Street. Teams need low-cost guys like Howry who could bounce back to have a solid year. Look at the Phillies in recent years. They gambled on career journeyman J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey and it paid off in 2008. The same goes for the Rays with Grant Balfour, Trever Miller and J.P Howell. Check out this column by SNY's Ted Berg which further details how the playoff teams put together their strong bullpens. I'll give you a preview: they didn't do it by signing players to 4 year, $60 million deals. (side note: Berg astutely identifies Howry as an under-the-radar pickup as well, but I wasn't on board until the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration)

If the Mets sign Howry and he stinks in 2009, I'd begrudgingly admit I'm wrong. But it would likely be just a $2 million mistake, and wouldn't cost the Mets any draft picks.

Offseason Part 3 - The Bullpen

Here is part 3 of my offseason recommendations series. Next up is the bullpen.

Projected starting position players, prior to trades/signings:
1. (closer) - ????
2. Pedro Feliciano
3. Scott Schoeneweis
4. Joe Smith
5. Brian Stokes
6. Bobby Parnell/Eddie Kunz
7. ????

The first thing that will jump off the page for most fans is my inclusion of Scott Schoeneweis in next year’s plans. Please hear me out. Scott is tremendously useful, as long as he is not left in to face right-handed batters. Look at Scott’s career and 2008 numbers vs. right-handed and left-handed batters:

Career, vs. RHB: .294/.367/.469
Career, vs. LHB: .224/.299/.295

2008, vs. RHB: .333/.423/.532
2008, vs. LHB: .178/.243/.277

My plan entails cutting ties with Duaner Sanchez and Aaron Heilman. Duaner lost 3+ mph on his fastball in 2008 from 2006. His HR/9 doubled, and his LD% increased from 13.2 to 25.4. Heilman was a very good relief pitcher from 2005-2007, despite a preference to be a starter. However, his 2008 was nothing short of disastrous (5.45 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, 1.59(!) WHIP). Met fans’ ill-will toward Aaron is just too much to overcome, and I don’t think bringing him back as reliever or starter is wise. It’s time for a change of scenery. Unfortunately, the Mets will be selling low on a guy with talent. I think Bobby Parnell or Eddie Kunz should occupy a bullpen spot, as the Mets need to develop their young power arms. Parnell has been a starter most of his college and minor league career, but I envision him coming out of the ‘pen with his 95+ mph fastball. He and Stokes have the best arms on the team. Free agent options, with Type A or Type B projection:

Jeremy Affeldt, LHP (Type B): Affeldt was a promising young starter for the Royals a few years back, but kind of fell apart before converting to reliever. His peripheral stats are solid all around, though he struggled giving up the longball in 2008. However, 7 of the 9 homers he surrendered were at the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati, so take that with a grain of salt. Additionally, his BABIP in 2008 was a very high .329, meaning he was probably unlucky this season. He is equally effective vs. lefties and righties.

Joe Beimel, LHP (Type B): I’m a fan of Beimel, maybe because I’ve seen him pitch well vs. the Mets throughout his career (13.1 IP, 2.02 ERA). He knows how to keep the ball in the ballpark (0.39 HR/9 from 2006-2008), and is a proven commodity.

Juan Cruz, RHP (Type A): Cruz’s rep as a high strikeout, high walk guy is justified – he’s averaged 9.35 K/9 and 4.65 BB/9 throughout his career. His 2006-2008 seasons were strong, as he posted WHIP’s of 1.34, 1.26, and 1.26 respectively. However, power pitchers who walk a lot of guys historically have not learned how to master the strike zone late in their careers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP (Type A): The lefty closer with a funky delivery, Fuentes appears ready to leave Colorado for greener pastures. To quote Fuentes, “I also understand the business aspect of it. If you only have $100 to spend on groceries, you can't go out and spend $200. That's just the way it is.” Sounds like the Rockies only have $100 to spend. He has a career 83% save percentage, striking out 10.24 per 9 innings. 2008 was his best season yet, and coincidentally it was also his contract year. He would likely command a 3-year, $30-$36 million deal.

Darren Oliver, LHP (Type A): Oliver has enjoyed a career renaissance as a reliever since his strong 2006 with the Mets. He is useful in multiple inning stints, as is effective against both lefties and righties. 2008 was his best relief season yet (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). I wish the Mets didn’t let him bolt after ’06, though I think they were a little weary of his age. He’ll be 38 next season.

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP (Type A): In late August, I would’ve shot down the idea of signing “K-Rod” this offseason. However, I was forced to atleast consider it after Collapse, Part Deux. Apparently, he wants something like $75 million for 5 years. He is a “maximum effort” pitcher, and looks like he’ll tear a muscle every pitch he throws. His fastball averaged 95 mph in 2006, but was at 92 mph in 2008. He still strikes out a ton of guys, but his K/BB, BAA, and WHIP were the worst of his career in 2008. K-Rod doesn’t let up homeruns at a high rate, and will be just 27 years old next season.

Recommendations:
(note: In a thoughtful column, SNY’s Ted Berg suggests trying to trade for J.J. Putz of the Seattle Mariners. Putz’s situation is similar to Brad Lidge’s after 2007. He had a poor year after a few dominating ones. He throws in the mid to upper 90’s, and is a strikeout pitcher. The rebuilding Mariners may be looking to trade him. I would be in favor of this, if feasible. Assuming that trade doesn’t happen, here are my bullpen recommendations.)

The market for middle relief is a volatile one, and is often a crapshoot from year to year. That being said, the Mets simply cannot stand pat, and must try to improve the ‘pen this offseason. I do not endorse pursuing Francisco Rodriguez, especially for the ridiculous 5-year, $75 million contract he supposedly wants. I feel the negatives outweigh the positives, and only Mariano Rivera is worth that kind of commitment. Instead I like the older, cheaper (and better?) Brian Fuentes. His 2008 season was superior to K-Rod’s in my opinion. Take a look:

K-Rod: 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP,10.14 K/9, 2.26 K/BB, 0.53 HR/9, 90% saves
Fuentes: 2.73 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 11.78 K/9, 3.73 K/BB, 0.43 HR/9, 88% saves

It’s close, and I realize that looking at just 1 season isn’t fair, but it’s the most recent set of stats we have to look at. Additionally, I would make a run at Jeremy Affeldt, free agent from the Reds. He’ll be just 29 at the start of next season, and is coming off of two strong years in the ‘pen. His fastball touches the mid-90’s, meaning the Mets could potentially feature 4 guys who can hit 95 mph without sacrificing too much command of the strike zone (Affeldt, Fuentes, Stokes, Parnell - although Parnell has some control issues). He will not break the bank, and I think a 3 year deal at $3-4 million per is reasonable.

Projected 2009 bullpen, if I had it my way:
1. Brian Fuentes (closer)
2. Jeremy Affeldt
3. Pedro Feliciano
4. Bobby Parnell/Eddie Kunz
5. Scott Schoeneweis
6. Joe Smith
7. Brian Stokes

Feel free to agree or disagree with any of this. Check back tomorrow for a look at what the Mets 25 man roster would look like, and total estimated payroll, based on my recommendations.

Friday, September 19 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Braves 5

Meaningful September baseball is a lot more fun when the Mets win, isn’t it? Daniel Murphy’s pinch hit 2-run double in the 8th opened the floodgates off of 68 year old Julian Tavarez, and the bullpen closed it out despite some sloppy defense. This was the Mets first win in Atlanta this season. Here are your game thoughts:

- Jose Reyes set the tone for the 2nd time this week with a homer to start the game. Minus his throwing error in the 7th, Jose had a brilliant game.

- “Daniel Murphy is unbelievable isn’t he?” – Ron Darling. That about sums it up. He’s living a blessed existence right now, and even made it safe into 2nd base after getting caught in a pickle following his pinch hit double.

- Lately, the Mets bullpen reminds me of an action movie, where one henchman after another go after the good guy and get unceremoniously peaced (the Mets relievers are the henchman). Movie scenes that come to mind: the Crazy 88 vs. Uma Thurman in "Kill Bill"; the Foot Clan vs. the Ninja Turtles; a bunch of gladiators vs. Russell Crowe in "Gladiator" ("Are you not entertained?!"); 118 soldiers vs. Christian Bale in "Equilibrium". I could probably go on all night with this. The ‘pen did pitch well tonight for a change.

- Aaron Heilman picked up probably his biggest out of the year, striking out Omar Infante (the only batter he faced) in the 7th with 2 men on. Maybe Heilman could be useful against righties the rest of the way?

- Funny sight #1: Murphy standing behind Jerry Manuel with a bat in his hand in the dugout during the 8th inning. He looked like a Little Leaguer who wants to be put in the game.

- Funny sight #2: The bullpen camera caught Pedro Feliciano doing some absurd stretching as Nelson Figueroa warmed up. Keith Hernandez on the funny looking stretching: “What is this, Swan Lake?”

The Mets are back in first – for now - after the Phillies lost. The lead is just a half game though. The Brewers got clobbered by the Reds, and are showing no signs of playing winning baseball. They’re bumping up C.C. Sabathia to pitch on 3 days rest, in a last ditch effort to destroy C.C.’s elbow before he departs for free agency, and also to try and win the Wild Card.

Pedro Martinez starts tomorrow. He has been dreadful of late, with a 7.29 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 4 starts. His Braves counterpart, Jorge Campillo, has been just as bad. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his last 4 starts. Look for a high scoring affair.

Tuesday, September 9 Game Thoughts: Mets 10 - Nationals 8

For the third Tuesday in a row, the Mets tried to give the fans a heart attack. Two weeks ago it was the 8-7, 13-inning loss in Philly. Last week was the 6-5, 10-inning win in Milwaukee. The difference is that tonight's come from behind 10-8 win was not against contending teams like the Phillies and Brewers – it was vs. the last place Nationals. I'll take the W. Here are your game thoughts:

- Wow Carlos Delgado. Keep this pace up through Sept. 28, and maybe then I’ll consider you for MVP. He “Del-Got-It” (copyright Kenny Mayne) twice again tonight. Although Delgado deserves it, I’m going to give tonight's John Olerud Award to Carlos Beltran. Technically, Beltran hit the “game winning homerun”, and I want to spread the coveted award around to the other players.

- I guess Oliver Perez is allowed a poor outing after being so strong over these last few months. In his 13 prior starts to tonight, Oliver had 84.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 83 K, 37 BB, and a 1.17 WHIP. Gary, Keith, and Ron always talk about how Oliver kind of stinks vs. the lowly teams, and steps it up against the good teams. I have this same feeling, and I’ll look at the numbers to find out if perception equals reality.

- Whenever he plays the Mets, it seems like Lastings Milledge puts every ounce of energy he has into each swing. He hasn’t experienced any success vs. his former team this year, going .162/.265/.210, with 2 XBH and 2 RBI in 49 PA’s.

- In high school, I scrimmaged against John Lannan’s team. I saw him pitch, and actually umpired for a few of his innings during the game. He wasn’t anywhere close to a major league talent, and he must have worked his butt off to get where he is now. He struggled tonight, but has had a nice little season for a bad team.

- The bullpen brilliance continues, as 6 relievers combined for 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB and 4 K.

The Phillies almost pulled it off again, coming back from a 9-1 deficit to eventually lose 10-8. Here’s a fun fact, aided by the expansion of rosters on Sept. 1: the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Phillies, and Braves combined to use 34(!) pitchers in tonight’s games. I wish I had a contact at the Elias Sports Bureau to find out if that’s some kind of a record, for one division atleast.

Sunday, September 7 Game Thoughts: Game 1, Phillies 6 - Mets 2; Game 2, Mets 6 - Phillies 3

A long day at Shea left the Mets up 2 games on the Phillies. Jamie Moyer dominated in game 1, and Johan Santana settled down after a rocky 1st inning to shut down the Phils and outpitch Cole Hamels in game 2. We can be thankful that the last Mets-Phils game at Shea was a win (and as an added bonus, ended on a Jimmy Rollins strikeout). Here are your game thoughts:

Game 1

- Pedro Martinez had nothing today. In 4 IP, he allowed 8 baserunners, and a 3 run bomb to new Mets killer Greg Dobbs in the 4th which essentially ended the game.

- As Gary Cohen pointed out, it’s kind of amazing that Moyer was so in control after having faced the Mets 5 times earlier this year. You’d think by now the Mets lineup would be ready for Moyer’s junkball assault. They did mash him last 2 weeks ago in Philadelphia though.

- Six Mets relievers allowed just 4 baserunners in 5 scoreless innings, continuing the recent string of brilliance.

Game 2

- This was the best all around game I’ve attended this year. The weather was perfect, Shea was packed, and Johan did the job. My record is now 7-4 for games attended in 2008.

- I was tempted to join the “M-V-P” chants for Carlos Delgado, but my rational side continues to win over. There is a lot of baseball left to play folks. (side note: I had no problem with the “OVERRATED” chant for Rollins)

- What else is there to say about Delgado and his Flushing Renaissance? Both of his homers were BOMBS, and his first inning 2 run single may have been the hit of the game. It gave the Mets the lead and momentum going forward.

- The Mets caught a couple breaks. Catcher’s interference was called on Chris Coste, awarding first base to David Wright. I hadn’t seen that call made since middle school baseball. Also, Wright apparently was out at 3rd on Carlos Beltran’s 1st inning single.

- Where have you gone Marlon Anderson? After finishing 2007 as the best pinch hitter on the planet, Marlon has been downright brutal in 2008. He struck out tonight in a pinch hitting spot. His 2008 OPS+ is 48, and his SLG is .291. Ouch.

- The bullpen finished up, although Luis Ayala pulled his usual 9th inning Braden Looper nonsense before slamming the door. In fairness to Ayala, the run he allowed was unearned, and he gave up a couple cheap hits. Some Phillie named Andy Tracy just missed a 3 run homer in the 9th which would’ve made it a 1 run game.

Who was hot today?:
Mets
Delgado: 3-8, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Damion Easley: 4-8, 2B, 3B
Santana: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Phillies
Ryan Howard: 3-8, HR, 2B
Greg Dobbs: 2-5, HR, 2B, 3 RBI
Moyer: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Who stunk today?:
Mets
Jose Reyes: 0-9 (yikes)
Wright: 1-7, 2B, 5 LOB (left on base)

Phillies
Rollins: 1-10, 5 LOB
Hamels: 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

The Nats come to town this week for a quick 2 game set. These are games the Mets simply must take. The Nats have looked inspired of late, going 9-3 in their last 12. Tomorrow, I’ll check up on Jose Reyes’ September thus far, and will do this each week to see if his efforts to finish strong are paying off.

Tuesday, September 2 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Brewers 5

The Mets beat Brewers for the 2nd day in a row, and continued to raise their fans' blood pressure. Jon Niese's debut was a disaster, and I'll post more about it tomorrow. A brief pregame shot of Niese said it all – he was sitting in the dugout alone, head buried in his hat. I don’t know what was going on, but it was an incredibly uninspiring pose for a guy who was to take the mound momentarily. (Side Note: It was probably more inspiring than the time I threw up before pitching a high school game... although that was due more to eating McDonald's for lunch than nerves. I went 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K's that day vs. last place Wheatley HS) Here are your game thoughts:

- Carlos Beltran’s 3 run homer looked like a popup. It reminded me of Randy Quaid and co. in Major League II: “It’s too high, it can’t be gone”. Click here for my favorite scene from ML2, which features Brewers announcer Bob Uecker.
(***EDIT***: An astute reader pointed out that the "too high" line I referenced from "Major League 2" was actually said in "Major League", and not by Randy Quaid. I don't know how I blew that one, as I've seen both like 30 times. Good catch.)

- Why the HELL is catcher/nose tackle Robinson Cancel attempting to steal bases?!?!?

- It doesn’t get any better than watching Endy Chavez in the OF. His gundown of Rickie Weeks at 2nd in the 8th inning helped keep the game tied. Great defense all around in this game, including Beltran throwing out Ryan Braun at home in the 4th.

- All hail sweet swinging Dan Murphy, who scored on Endy’s sac fly after leading off the 10th with a pinch hit line-drive single.

- I’ve invented an incredibly clever label for game thoughts when the bullpen pitched great: "bullpen brilliance". Tonight was probably the pen’s best performance of the year, as (deep breath) Nelson Figueroa, Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, and Luis Ayala pitched 7 scoreless. That’s SEVEN scoreless by the Mets bullpen. Of course Ayala tried his best for the "bullpen horror show" label, but it was not to be.

- Rickie Weeks on the season: .233/.335/.390 for a .725 OPS, 12 HR
Weeks vs. Mets, 5 games and 24 PA’s: .368/.500/.842 for a 1.342 OPS, 3 HR

Oliver Perez has pitched solidly since Dan Warthen’s promotion to pitching coach. However, his walks are still a concern (11 in his last 18.2 IP). He cannot afford to give the free-swinging Brewers free passes Wednesday afternoon.