Showing newest posts with label andy pettitte. Show older posts
Showing newest posts with label andy pettitte. Show older posts

Friday, January 23, 2009

Mets sign RHP Freddy Garcia - Rotation still needs help

The Mets signed right-handed starting pitcher Freddy Garcia to a minor league deal, according to Adam Rubin at the Daily News. Reportedly, Garcia can make as much as $8-9 million if he makes the team and reaches a bunch of incentives. Those better be some lofty incentives if the Mets are to pay $8 million to a guy who has pitched a combined 78 innings (majors and minors) over the last 2 seasons due to injury.

This is a good pick-up, especially if Garcia can return to his workhorse 1999-2006 form. He has a career FIP of 4.22 in 1700+ innings, and I could see him making 10-15 starts this year. I really hope Ben Sheets is signed as well. It doesn't seem like the Mets have any interest in Andy Pettitte (unfortunately), so I'll give up on that pipe dream. I've said it over and over again, but at this point Oliver Perez at any more than $9 million a year just isn't going to cut it.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Mets Geek column: Let's get Pettitte

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I further explore the merits of signing Andy Pettitte. As I wrote last week, I am very much in favor of a 1 or 2-year deal for Pettitte, should negotiations with Ben Sheets fall apart.

Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog thinks Sheets is looking for a deal of about 2 years, $18 million with incentives and a 3rd year option. I'm not sure how accurate that is, but if it's true Omar Minaya should sign him ASAP. That would be a great contract, even with Sheets' injury risk.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Links: Mets free agent news, Carlos Delgado in 2009, Bert Blyleven vs. Jack Morris, and more Hall of Fame

Some links to check out while you ponder whether Bert Blyleven's Hall of Fame case is helped or hurt by the shirt he's wearing in this picture:

1) Peter Botte of the Daily News (via MLBTradeRumors) had some thoughts/rumors about the Mets free agent pursuits. Here they are, with my brief thoughts as well:

- The Mets are probably not interested in Andruw Jones: Good!
- They're "not even in" on Manny Ramirez: The only way I want Manny is if they fail to land Ben Sheets or Andy Pettitte. In that scenario they would have to drastically upgrade the lineup.
- They won't have an agreement with Oliver Perez anytime soon: Hopefully the only agreement they have with Ollie is for 3 years, $15 million or less.
- They've been in contact with Randy Wolf and Jon Garland: Neither of these guys thrill me, but they aren't that big a step down from Perez.
- They've talked with Freddy Garcia: Meh. I say sign him, but only if Sheets or Pettitte is signed as well.

2) Brian Joura at FanGraphs writes about what to expect from Carlos Delgado in 2009. He thinks Delgado's poor 2007 and first couple months of 2008 were a result of his wrist injury. After some great LD% and BABIP analysis, he concludes that we should expect a similar offensive output from Delgado in 2009 as 2008. This means about 30-35 HR, and a .265/.350/.510 line. Works for me.

3) Joe DelGrippo at NY Baseball Digest wrote a hilariously awful piece yesterday about why he would vote for Jack Morris but not Bert Blyleven for the Hall of Fame. Joey D. manages to insult many readers in the process. He wrote the piece in response to a comment I made on a previous post of his, and it is just terrible. Joey D's main argument is that Morris had a higher win % than Blyleven. This, as we all know, is an awful way to evaluate a pitcher. Check out the comments section - there's 24 comments and the only one's not completely ripping Joey D. a new one are the 2 he made himself. Here is a snippet from the post:

"Too many people are so wrapped up in statistics, especially the new stats that seem to spew out of every sabermetric bloggers mouth. Those bloggers are guys who mostly never played the game at any decent level above Little League, but they know the OPS+ of every guy not in the HOF but should be based on WARP 3."

Right. So basically he's saying stats are stupid, then goes on to tell us about Morris's win % and average W-L record each season. These are, ya know, stats. For the last time, Blyleven pitched 1000 more innings than Morris, with a higher K rate, lower BB rate, lower HR allowed rate, and MUCH lower ERA. Blyleven had a 2.47 postseason ERA and Morris a 3.80 ERA. It's no contest. If Mike Silva, proprietor of the recommended NY Baseball Digest, had any sense he'd either have a little chat with Joey D. or kick him off the site altogether.

4) I'm pretty obsessed with this Hall of Fame stuff. I have an utter contempt for the sportswriters who vote on the HOF and refuse to learn about or use modern statistics to evaluate players for their ballots. King Kaufman at Salon shares my sentiments:

"It's one thing to criticize the new stats. But it's another thing to simply dismiss them without bothering to figure out what they're all about. And then to try to pass this off as wisdom. It's what's going on in the world we're covering. In what other profession do practitioners brag about their ignorance regarding current events and developments? In what other area of journalism is lack of awareness a mark of distinction? Cut it out, fellow writers. Do your job. Engage with your material. Stay current. Learn about things you don't understand. Ignorance isn't a virtue. It's not something to brag about. It's something to fix."

I couldn't agree more. These men get paid to write about sports and have the privilege (not the right) to vote on the Hall of Fame. And many of them wear their lack of statistical knowledge as a badge of honor. Get with it guys. Modern medicine no longer practices phrenology or uses leeches as a cure; modern baseball writers should not be using W-L records, batting average and RBI to evaluate players.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

How about Andy Pettitte?

My first choice for the Mets open rotation spot(s) is Ben Sheets. When healthy, he is a dominant, #1 type pitcher. I think Omar Minaya is reluctant to go after Sheets because he fears him turning into a younger version of injury prone Pedro Martinez and El Duque. I see Andy Pettitte as the next best option. Compare the FIP's of various pitchers:

Pettitte is not that big a dropoff from Derek Lowe. Forget Oliver Perez. The reason Pettitte isn't getting the respect he deserves this offseason was his inflated ERA (4.54 in 2008) due to bad luck and poor defense (see: Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano). He is a near lock for 200 IP even at age 36 and would be the #2 pitcher in the rotation. FanGraphs pegs Pettitte's 1-year contract value at $15 million and BtB said $14 million. He turned down 1-year and $10 million from the Yankees, and I would love to see the Mets offer as much as $12-13 million for 1 year of Pettitte's services.