Should the Mets explore a trade with the Nationals for an OF?

I posted at Amazin' Avenue about the surplus of OF's that the Nationals have after signing Adam Dunn. Apparently Dunn will play 1B for the Nats, but the following OF's, 5 of whom bat right-handed, will be on their roster or at least compete for a spot:

- Elijah Dukes
- Willie Harris
- Austin Kearns
- Lastings Milledge
- Wily Mo Pena
- Josh Willingham

Should the Mets look to trade for one of these players?

Mets sign backup OF Rob Mackowiak - Why?!

Lefty hitting OF Rob Mackowiak has signed with the Mets on a 1-year minor league deal worth atleast $600K. Mackowiak is yet another crappy corner OF the Mets have acquired or re-signed this offseason along with Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan, and Angel Pagan. I don't understand this signing and think it's a total waste of money. Apparently Omar Minaya's philosophy is "Why sign 1 very good corner OF (Adam Dunn) when I can have 4 shitty ones?" That is one crowded OF, with Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in the mix. Does Omar realize that a team can only have 25 players on its roster?

Anyways, Mackowiak can play a lot of positions decently and will likely put up a line around .250/.330/.370 if he makes the team. I just don't see where he fits in. I'd have much rather seen the money given to Sullivan and Mackowiak go towards the "Ben Sheets Fund."

The Derek Lowe fallout

Derek Lowe signed with the Braves today for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news because:

1) Lowe was the best remaining starter on the market and I wanted the Mets to sign him.
2) He signed with the Braves, who now have the best rotation in the NL East: Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and Tim Hudson (if he returns from injury)
3) This likely drives up the price for supposed "Plan B" option, Oliver Perez. As I wrote at Mets Geek today, Lowe is far superior to Ollie. I get the feeling many Met fans think they're close in value, but they simply aren't. Seriously, compare their FIP's and $$ value's based on the stat WAR over the last 2 seasons:

Lowe
2007: 3.97 - $13.1 million
2008: 3.26 - $15.8 million

Perez
2007: 4.35 - $8.5 million
2008: 4.68 - $5.3 million

I'd prefer it if Omar Minaya signed Ben Sheets, as Sheets is the last dominating pitcher left on the market. This seems unlikely. Apparently Omar is a huge fan of Ollie, so I think the Mets will go after him hard. This is not a problem, as long as the Mets do not overpay for him and have $$ leftover to sign Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez. However, if the Mets eventually sign Ollie for anything resembling 4 years, $52 million I plan to buy the URL: http://www.fiya-minaya.com/ (think "fire Minaya").

Burrell and Bradley sign: How will this affect the Mets?

Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley signed contracts today with the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Why should Met fans care? Because these signings, along with the previous Raul Ibanez signing by the Phillies, will affect the Mets pursuit of an upgrade in LF. The major options left on the market are Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez. Let's compare these 6 players based on what they're worth and what some of them have already signed for. The column "WV $ in '08" is how much each player was worth in 2008 based on the win value system at FanGraphs. The column "BtB $ Value" is how much Beyond the Boxscore valued the player at heading into free agency. Neither of these measures is 100% infallible, but they're pretty good for our purposes:

It looks like Burrell and Bradley were signed for less than what they're actually worth. Bradley is a perpetual injury risk (he's played more than 101 games just twice in the last 7 years) and head case, but when he plays he can dominate (163 OPS+ in 2008). The Ibanez contract is at best a fair contract. Though it looks worse and worse after the bargain signings of Burrell and Bradley.

Considering these facts, it appears the Mets are in the driver's seat should they decide to pursue a defensive challenged LF. Could Dunn be had for 2-3 years and $8-9 million per? How about Abreu for 1 year, $7 million? Ramirez already turned down a 2 year, $45 million offer from the Dodgers, so I'm pretty sure he can't be had at a discount. Another option that several other Met fans have kicked around is Rocco Baldelli. He's a right-handed hitter with some medical/injury problems, but might be worth a risk for 1 year and $3 million or so. Plus Rocco seems to have a decent understanding of statistics, which is a plus in my book. I'd love to have Dunn playing LF in 2009 and then 1B in 2010, as I've covered over and over and over again. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Omar Minaya and the Mets have any interest.

Don't get cheap on me Jeff Wilpon

The economy sucks, and I fear that the Mets will use it as an excuse for not spending this offseason. This excuse would be unacceptable, as the Mets were 2nd in baseball in attendance and 3rd in average ticket price in 2008. They have a TV network and a brand new stadium, featuring higher ticket prices but with about 10,000 fewer seats.

The Mets 2008 payroll was about $138-140 million. By my calculation, the projected 2009 payroll based only on players currently under contract is about $100-$102 million. This includes predictions about future raises to guys like Ryan Church and Aaron Heilman, as well as money still owed Billy Wagner. This leaves, conservatively, $36 million available for spending if they wanted to simply meet 2008's payroll. The luxury tax level is $162 million for 2009.

$36 million is no small chunk of change to work with, and I think they should be able to spend maybe $45 million without significantly hurting their financial statements. (Note: I have not inspected the Mets' books, so my $45 million figure is pretty arbitrary. I do think a $148 million 2009 payroll is reasonable though.) With this assumption, I see no reason why the Mets shouldn't be able to offer the following:

- 4 years, $60 million to Derek Lowe
- 2 years, $20 million to Brian Fuentes
- 2 years, $24 million to Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell

This comes to roughly $37 million, leaving a few million for scrap heap bullpen signings as well. Lowe and Fuentes were offered arbitration so the Mets would lose 2 draft picks if both signed. However, when another team unwisely signs Oliver Perez for like 4 years and $50 million, the Mets would get 2 picks in return. Some might balk at paying Lowe $15 million a season, but even this amount might be lower than what he's actually worth. I'm all for trading for Huston Street, if possible.

The crappy economy is indeed crappy. I have witnessed it's wrath firsthand in the form of layoffs of friends and 401(k) value decreases. However, if the Mets use it as a crutch for not spending this offseason, I'm going to call B.S. To paraphrase Dennis Nedry (as played by Wayne Knight) in Jurassic Park, "Don't get cheap on me Wilpon."

Adam Dunn: Free agent steal?

Before everyone freaks out and thinks I'm an advocate of aggressively going after Adam Dunn this offseason, let me say that I'm not. However, if the Mets are still in the market for a LF after taking care of their pitching needs, Dunn might not be a bad option. Here is my case for the big (6'6", 245 lbs.) man:

a) He is ridiculously consistent. Put him down for 40 homers (he's hit EXACTLY 40 homers each season since 2005), 100+ walks, and a line around .240/.380/.520. Those home runs are not cheapo - he led all of baseball in average home run distance this season.
b) He is durable. Since becoming an everyday player in 2002, Dunn has missed just 69 out of a possible 1134 games.
c) For whatever reason, it seems like there's not too much interest in Dunn and his career .899 OPS. For comparison, Mark Teixeira's career OPS is .919. The Mets could sign him for below market value.

To be fair, there are significant negatives to Dunn's game:

a) He is a poor defensive OF. My only remedy is to move him to 1B in 2010 after the Mets presumably cut ties with Carlos Delgado.
b) He strikes out a lot. Some people think this is a big negative. I don't, as long as he puts up great OBP and SLG. In most cases, there is no difference between a strikeout and groundout/fly-out.
c) He has a low BA. For his career, he's batted just .247. Again, I don't think this is a huge problem as long as his OBP and SLG are solid.

Dunn is such a polarizing player - his detractors are always very vocal and have strong opinions about him. (See Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P Ricciardi's comments from this summer) However, I'm a big fan, and would love to see him, his 40 homers, and .380 OBP batting 5th or 6th in the Mets lineup next year.