Links: Mets catchers, Heyman = clueless, Heilman, and perception vs. reality

Here's some links to check out while you wonder why only one Mets blogger heeded my advice to shut up about Manny Ramirez:

1) Rob at Amazin' Avenue takes a look at the Mets catching situation, namely Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro:

"Basically, what I'm saying is that our catching situation is fine. It's not great, but it's not bad either. Like I said, its league average, which is more than enough to win. I have just been amazed by how many people consider it one of Omar's cardinal necessities to improve the catching situation."

I agree, and I'm glad that Met fans have dialed down the support for an upgrade at catcher. Schneider and Castro's contracts expire after 2009, so catcher will need to be addressed next offseason.

2) R.J. Anderson at Beyond the Boxscore quickly and neatly takes apart Jon Heyman's ridiculous statement that free agent OF Garret Anderson has "been among the more productive outfielders in the AL over the last several years." Heyman is pretty good at being a baseball "insider", even if there are 5 false rumors for every 1 he has right. However, he is simply embarrassing at analysis.

3) Poor Aaron Heilman. He was traded again, this time to the Cubs. He was one of my favorite Mets (less so in 2008), and I hope he finds success in his post-Mets career. The Cubs don't come to Citi Field until September - imagine Heilman starting a game against the Mets in the heat of a pennant race.

4) The blog What's A Tarrarel? picks apart the classic Hall of Fame argument that usually goes something like this:

"I don't need numbers to tell me a player is Hall worthy - I saw him play, and that is enough for me! Only math geeks and losers living with their parents think Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines should make it!"

The Hall of Fame voting process is something of a fascination for me, and I wish every voter who put Jim Rice, Jack Morris, or Andre Dawson on their ballot could read this great little piece.

Breaking down the J.J. Putz trade

I love the acquisition of J.J. Putz. I look forward to Jerry Manuel using him as a “relief ace”, coming in to pitch in high leverage situations no matter if it’s the 6th or 9th inning. Games are shortened to 7 innings with Putz and K-Rod. Let’s hope they both stay healthy. The trade can be broken up into 3 parts, listed below:

Gave up: Endy Chavez (OF), age 31
Received: Jeremy Reed (OF), age 27

They are very similar hitters and Reed is younger. Note that Reed played mostly CF entirely in 2008, while Endy played mostly corner OF positions. UZR is not valued the same between CF and corner OF spots, but I’m not really sure how to translate the numbers to reflect this. Reed is a serviceable defensive player and posted a 13.2 UZR in 2005 playing CF exclusively. He seems to have regressed since. Reed was once a highly regarded prospect and had great minor league success. It hasn't translated to the major league level after 1100+ PA's, so I don't think he's going to "figure it out" all of a sudden. This is the one part of the trade I don’t like, as Endy is more valuable both for sentimental reasons and, more importantly, his on-field contribution.

Gave up: Joe Smith (P), age 25
Received: Sean Green (P), age 30

It’s pretty amazing how similar these 2 are, outside of age. Green has held righties to a .683 OPS against in his career – Smith, .643. Both struggle against lefties. I like Smith a lot and am sad to see him go, but this part of the trade is a wash. Green = Smith.

Gave up: Aaron Heilman (P) age 30, Mike Carp (1B) age 22, Jason Vargas (P) age 26, Ezequiel Carrera (OF) age 21, Maikel Cleto (P) age 19
Received: J.J. Putz (P), age 32



If Putz is healthy, this is a decent but not great trade for the Mets. The 2006-2007 version of Putz was one of the best relievers in baseball, if not the best. Strikeout ability is something the Mets bullpen has lacked the last couple years (outside of Billy Wagner). Putz is owed $5 million in 2009 and has a club option for $8.6 million in 2010. Hopefully he’s not too disgruntled about being a setup man, which I’m assuming is the plan at this point. I don’t know much about the minor leaguers to comment, but hopefully Carp gets a shot to play in Seattle. Heilman will probably be a starter, and I would love to him start 30+ games and have success. The Mets win this part of the trade, assuming Putz is healthy and dominant. Otherwise, it's a lot of players to give up for a setup man.

To sum up, I love having Putz in the bullpen, and I like this trade. If they could’ve kept Endy I’d like it more.

It Putz the lotion in the basket

Welcome to New York, J.J. Putz. In case you missed it, the Mets traded Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, and minor leaguers Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera for J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed. The Indians were also involved, as they received Luis Valbuena and gave up Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Click here for the whole trade.

My gut reaction is that it's a good trade that improves the Mets right now. If healthy, Putz is dominant. He and K-Rod would form the best 1-2 punch out of the 'pen in baseball. I also love the idea of Putz being utilized as a "relief ace", coming in to pitch during high leverage situations, no matter if it's the 6th or 9th inning. The 2007-2008 Mets lacked that pre-9th inning guy. However, the Mets gave up 7 players and got 3 in return, 1 of whom (Reed) I don't think is good enough to be on the Opening Day roster. I'll break the trade down later in more detail.

Omar Minaya covered his ass - now no one can say he didn't try to improve the bullpen.

The curious case of Aaron Heilman

Aaron Heilman has made it clear that he wants to be a starting pitcher. I believe he has earned the chance to start, but the Mets do not see him as a starter. I fully support trading him to a team which would give him a chance to start, especially if it means getting some bullpen help in return. Today on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone writes:

"Last night on SNY’s Mets Hot Stove, SI.com’s Jon Heyman again referenced Heilman’s ‘high-back elbow,’ which Mets officials believe could lead to injury if he throws more than 100 innings in a season, similar to Mark Prior."

Heilman has had the same delivery as long as I can remember. I'm assuming he had the same delivery in college. Now take a look at his IP during the time he was a starter:

1999: 109 IP (sophomore year at Notre Dame)
2000: 103 IP (junior year)
2001: 152.1 IP (senior year and A ball)
2002: 146 IP (between AA and AAA)
2003: 159.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2004: 179.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2005: 108 IP (majors)

As far as I can tell, Heilman has never had arm trouble or made a trip to the DL. I'll accept the Mets saying they don't see him as a starter because he sucks or they don't think his stuff is conducive to starting, but please don't try to justify it by saying he'll get injured if he pitches more than 100 innings. This is an insult to Heilman. Additionally, take a look at his stats his senior year at ND:

15-0, 114 IP, 1.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB, 0.24 HR/9..... WOW.
(Note: I'm not presenting his college stats as support for his inclusion in the Mets rotation. I am just awed by those numbers)

***EDIT***: Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue pointed out that I'm wrong about Heilman's delivery never changing - good catch. His current delivery is the same as the one he used in college and the early part of his Mets career. He switched to a more over-the-top delivery in the minors, but reverted back to his college mechanics in 2005.

***EDIT #2***: I found an old scouting report on Heilman from 2002, when he had the same delivery as he does today. It's linked here. Here's what the scouts had to say about Heilman:

"Strengths: His three-quarters delivery is easy and fluid, reducing the stress on his arm, a key trait for a pitcher who will be counted upon to eat innings at higher levels."

Assuming this scouting report is accurate, Heilman's delivery would not make him an injury risk if he became a starter. I honestly don't know what Jon Heyman is talking about, and he has been peddling this "high elbow injury" story about Heilman for awhile now.

Friday, September 19 Game Thoughts: Mets 9 - Braves 5

Meaningful September baseball is a lot more fun when the Mets win, isn’t it? Daniel Murphy’s pinch hit 2-run double in the 8th opened the floodgates off of 68 year old Julian Tavarez, and the bullpen closed it out despite some sloppy defense. This was the Mets first win in Atlanta this season. Here are your game thoughts:

- Jose Reyes set the tone for the 2nd time this week with a homer to start the game. Minus his throwing error in the 7th, Jose had a brilliant game.

- “Daniel Murphy is unbelievable isn’t he?” – Ron Darling. That about sums it up. He’s living a blessed existence right now, and even made it safe into 2nd base after getting caught in a pickle following his pinch hit double.

- Lately, the Mets bullpen reminds me of an action movie, where one henchman after another go after the good guy and get unceremoniously peaced (the Mets relievers are the henchman). Movie scenes that come to mind: the Crazy 88 vs. Uma Thurman in "Kill Bill"; the Foot Clan vs. the Ninja Turtles; a bunch of gladiators vs. Russell Crowe in "Gladiator" ("Are you not entertained?!"); 118 soldiers vs. Christian Bale in "Equilibrium". I could probably go on all night with this. The ‘pen did pitch well tonight for a change.

- Aaron Heilman picked up probably his biggest out of the year, striking out Omar Infante (the only batter he faced) in the 7th with 2 men on. Maybe Heilman could be useful against righties the rest of the way?

- Funny sight #1: Murphy standing behind Jerry Manuel with a bat in his hand in the dugout during the 8th inning. He looked like a Little Leaguer who wants to be put in the game.

- Funny sight #2: The bullpen camera caught Pedro Feliciano doing some absurd stretching as Nelson Figueroa warmed up. Keith Hernandez on the funny looking stretching: “What is this, Swan Lake?”

The Mets are back in first – for now - after the Phillies lost. The lead is just a half game though. The Brewers got clobbered by the Reds, and are showing no signs of playing winning baseball. They’re bumping up C.C. Sabathia to pitch on 3 days rest, in a last ditch effort to destroy C.C.’s elbow before he departs for free agency, and also to try and win the Wild Card.

Pedro Martinez starts tomorrow. He has been dreadful of late, with a 7.29 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 4 starts. His Braves counterpart, Jorge Campillo, has been just as bad. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his last 4 starts. Look for a high scoring affair.

Analyzing Aaron Heilman

Anyone who knows me is aware that I’m the biggest Aaron Heilman apologist in the tri-state area. He was a reliable, above-average setup man from 2005 through 2007. However, his 2008 season has been an unmitigated disaster. I’ve run out of stats to defend him this year. My goal is to figure out what went wrong for Aaron in ’08. First, his important numbers from 2005-2008:

2005: 3.17 ERA, 8.83 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 1.15 WHIP, 0.50 HR/9, .290 BABIP

2006: 3.62 ERA, 7.55 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP, 0.52 HR/9, .283 BABIP

2007: 3.03 ERA, 6.59 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.07 WHIP, 0.84 HR/9, .263 BABIP

2008: 5.38 ERA, 9.65 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 1.53 WHIP, 1.22 HR/9, .325 BABIP

To summarize, in 2008: Aaron’s K’s are up, BB’s are WAY up, and HR allowed are up. It’s pretty clear the increase in BB’s has been his Achilles Heel. I suspect the increase in homers allowed has something to do with his decreasing effectiveness with runners on base – an incredible 9 out of 10 of his homers allowed have come with men on base. Combine that with a very unlucky BABIP, and you’ve got the makings of a nightmare season for a pitcher who had a 2.16 ERA during Sept. 2007.

The next logical question is, what is he doing differently this year? Thanks to FanGraphs, I found his average mph per fastball and changeup:

2007: 92.4 mph fastball, 82.4 mph changeup
2008: 93.4 mph fastball, 83.7 mph changeup

I have to think that this is a big part of the problem. As his velocity has increased, his K’s and BB’s have too. However, his BB/9 has gone up in a much greater proportion than his K/9 has. Every pitcher would love to increase his velocity, but only to the point where control is maintained. Aaron may have crossed that point in 2008. Additionally, he has used his slider 11.9% of the time in ’08, compared to just 0.4% in ’07. This could also be an issue, although I can’t remember him getting burned by the slider too often this year. His recently revealed knee tendinitis injury couldn't haved helped him out much either.

I feel for Aaron, because he seems like a hard worker and genuine good guy. He’s gotten a bad rap in the past, mainly for surrendering the 2006 NLCS winning homer to Yadier Molina. However, the Mets are better off avoiding the use of Aaron in any big spot the rest of the regular season, and hypothetical postseason. At this point, he would likely be left off the postseason roster. His future with the Mets is in limbo, but I will hold off on commenting until the season is over.

Saturday, August 30 Game Thoughts: Marlins 4 - Mets 3

I shouldn't complain too much because the Mets are in first, but if you had to script a typical 2008 Mets game it would go something like this:

- Mets score early.
- Starting pitcher gives solid performance.
- Mets stop scoring after the 3rd inning.
- Bullpen takes over.
- Bullpen blows it.

Saturday night in Florida followed this script perfectly, with Aaron Heilman pulling a Kenny Rogers to give the Marlins a literal walkoff win. Here are your game thoughts:

- It's not good when your 4-5-6 batters go 0-10 with 5 K's, as Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Ryan Church did last night.

- Church doesn't look like he's all the way back just yet. Since he returned, he's hitting .231/.310/.308, which is obviously way down from his early season production. The Mets are going to need a productive Church down the stretch.

- Mike Pelfrey pitched solidly, exorcising his Florida Marlins demons. However, his pitch count ran up to 116 pitches, which greatly upsets me. His pickoff of hothead Cody Ross was terrific.

- Bullpen horror show analysis: Jerry Manuel shouldn't have let Duaner Sanchez start the 8th inning. He is not reliable enough at this point to be effective for any longer than a hitter or 2. Hindsight is 20/20, but I think Manuel should've gone to Brian Stokes (who needs a nickname) or even Heilman. Speaking of Aaron, he gave up a run without the Marlins having to take the bats off their shoulder. I know 2 of his 4 BB were intentional, but what an ugly stat line: 0.1 IP, 4 BB, 1 wild pitch, 1 ER. Yikes.

-Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco looks like he's going to be a stud pitcher. How do the Marlins keep developing these guys? Look at the list: Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Ryan Dempster, Anibel Sanchez, Nolasco, and Friday night's starter Chris Volstad.

A win in the final game of the series would be a nice springboard into Milwaukee. The Mets can look forward to not having to face C.C. Sabathia, as he's starting today. (Completely unrelated sidenote: look at Jayson Werth's hideous picture on his espn.com player page. He looks like an alien from a Twilight Zone episode or something.)

Wednesday, August 27 Game Thoughts: Mets 6 - Phillies 3

This game singlehandedly reversed Tuesday’s nightmare, and then some. For a change, the Mets dominated innings 7, 8, and 9, at the plate, in the field, and, most importantly, on the mound. Here are your game thoughts:

- CARLOS DELGADO!!! - hitting like it's 1999.
- DANIEL MURPHY!!! - mashing against the best closer in the NL.
- BRIAN SCHNEIDER!!! - hitting the jackpot with the luckiest 2 RBI hit in recent Mets history.

- Right before Murphy’s big 8th inning double, I was thinking “It’s about time to induct Murphy into the small sample size hall of fame, along with Shane Spencer, Benny Agbayani and Timo Perez.” I was happy to be proven wrong.

- Brian Stokes, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith and Luis Ayala shockingly combined for 3 scoreless innings, with Stokes looking impressive yet again. Jerry Manuel should keep putting Stokes out there in meaningful spots until he gives reason not to. In 17 IP, Stokes has a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 13 K and 3 BB.

- If I’m a Phillies fan, I have to be upset at Charlie Manuel’s use of Brad Lidge. The guy is unhittable, and you leave Rudy Seanez in to face Delgado, who was 3-6 with 2 homers against Seanez in his career. You need to bring in your bullpen ace at that point of the game. Also, Lidge made Delgado look silly in last night’s game, striking him out with ease.

Despite my heaping praise of Lidge, great job by the Mets getting to him. He’s been having some injury problems recently, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him head for a DL stint a la Billy Wagner. (side note: this is not to say I wish physical harm on Lidge; I’m just saying if he was injured, I wouldn’t be heartbroken; second side note: upset of the series - Aaron Heilman outpitched fellow Notre Dame alum Lidge)

- David Wright’s play in the field during August could fill a highlight reel. His 8th inning catch and throw to beat the speedy “Phlyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino at 1st was spectacular. David's performance at the plate in these 2 games left a lot to be desired, however.

This quote, from Ron Darling, perfectly captured the Mets experience: “Never has there been a team with a 14-6 record in their last 20 games, which was capable of creating so much angst."

Tomorrow’s day off will be much more enjoyable for the Mets and their fans after tonight. Rest up and recharge for a 3 game set against a struggling Marlins team this weekend.

Tuesday, August 26 Game Thoughts: Phillies 8 - Mets 7

I briefly considered texting my Philadelphia friends something to the effect of “now say goodnight” when the Mets went up 7-0 in the 4th. I came to my senses immediately, and realized that this is the 2008 Mets, famous for late inning hitting and pitching collapses. I could write an essay about this game. Wow, what a scary flashback to late August/September 2007. Here are your game thoughts:

- I personally feel for any Mets fan who made the trip to Philly. Hopefully Johan Santana can redeem you tomorrow.

- Congrats to Damion Easley on a HUGE night: on base 5 times with a bomb homer. I’ve been writing about Easley’s overrated play this season recently, so good job sticking it to me Damion.

- Jose Reyes made an amazing play in the 9th to temporarily prolong the game. Carlos Delgado made a great play to rob Ryan Howard in the 10th, also prolonging the game.

- I’m one of the only people left in New York who likes Aaron Heilman, so I was happy to see him pitch 3 scoreless, yet eventful, innings. It’s not often you see Aaron confidently striding off the mound after a job well done, but he earned it after striking out Chase Utley and Howard in the 12th.

- Heard on the broadcast: a creative Phillies fan yelling “CHAVEZ, YOU BUM” during Endy Chavez’s 13th inning AB.

- Keith and Ron let out a collective laugh in the 9th when Howard almost took Luis Ayala deep, as if to say, “My God I can’t handle this”. I had the same feeling. All 3 announcers got progressively goofier and started rooting for the Mets more and more as the game went on… which is fine with me.

This was just too much for one night. Good night Mets. Pick everyone up tomorrow night Johan.