Mets Tailgate

We've Moved - To Amazin' Avenue

2009-03-01T21:33:00.005-05:00

I've joined the staff at Amazin' Avenue, and will be writing over there from now on. It's a saber-friendly blog, and my posts there will be the same as what I've been writing at Mets Tailgate. AA is unique because readers can post their own articles, and the comments section after each post is user-friendly. I will still be writing a weekly column at Mets Geek, and the archives of past posts will be here. Thanks for reading, and hopefully you'll continue to read my stuff at Amazin' Avenue. You can tell which posts are mine by my username "JamesK." Here are some of my favorite posts at Mets Tailgate:

MLB Network at least has good taste in music

2009-02-28T18:05:00.003-05:00

My last post criticized the MLB Network's on-air analysis, but the theme song for the network's "30 Teams in 30 Days" is excellent. It's "C'mon C'mon" by the Von Bondies, which is also the theme song of one of my favorite shows "Rescue Me." The actual program is decent, as it previews a major league team with interviews and analysis. The Mets version aired this past Tuesday, but you can re-watch it here pretty soon.

In other news, Johan Santana is experiencing some elbow stiffness. It's too early to panic about this, but it's definitely troublesome. Hopefully the Mets handle this better than they did Ryan Church's concussion problems last season.

High Comedy from the MLB Network

2009-02-25T23:34:00.004-05:00

The first two minutes are an informative look at Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system. The rest descends into standard former-player-turned-analyst idiocy. If this was an SNL skit, it would be genius. (via BtB)

The money quotes:
Harold Reynolds - “Stats are ridiculous!”
Barry Larkin – “You might be hitting .215, but there’s a quality .215 that does not get translated into the stats” – what?

Talented NL East Shortstops

2009-02-25T07:21:00.002-05:00

Over at Amazin' Avenue, I posted about the five excellent starting shortstops in the NL East. They are Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Yunel Escobar, and Cristian Guzman. Ramirez, Reyes, and Rollins were the three best in baseball in 2008, and it should stay that way in 2009.

In the post, I suggest that maybe Reyes's running game has hurt his stamina and is partly to blame for his fading down the stretch each of the last two seasons. Combine his running with never taking days off and playing a grueling position, and it might be smart to limit his stolen bases a bit this season. Sounds like blasphemy, but with a little more energy maybe he could avoid the annual September swoon.

Mets Geek column: A Guide to Mets Blogs

2009-02-24T12:35:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I gave a quick rundown of the best Mets blogs out there. It's not an exhaustive list, and feel free to comment at Mets Geek or here about any that have been omitted. In the meantime, enjoy this bizarre picture of John Maine and Duaner Sanchez taken during photo day. (via The 'Ropolitans)

Georgetown vs. St. John's to open Citi Field

2009-02-23T14:51:00.002-05:00

A college baseball game between Georgetown and St. John's will be the first game played at Citi Field, on Sunday, March 29th, according to mlb.com. Tickets are just $5 and go on sale Monday, March 2nd. I plan to be in attendance, as it is a cheap way to get an early look at Citi Field, and also because Georgetown is my alma mater. The Hoya basketball team will almost certainly not be alive in the NCAA Tournament (NIT?) that late in March, so I won't be missing any potential games.

Players who will regress or bounce back in 2009

2009-02-21T13:29:00.006-05:00

Using statistical indicators like FIP, LD%, BABIP, and xBABIP I compiled a list of players who I think will regress in 2009 compared to 2008, and who will improve or bounce back in 2009. I included players from all teams, not just the Mets.

Links: Interview, Grading the Offseason, Evans to 2B, and Dusty Baker hilarity

2009-02-19T22:59:00.004-05:00

Some links to check out while wondering if the 17 lbs. Marlon Anderson lost this offseason will improve his 2008 OPS+ of 40:

1) I did an interview with Brian Joura at Mets Online about the 2009 Mets outlook. I answered questions about the Mets injury worries, whether the bullpen is as good as it seems, lineup formation and my prediction for the Mets W-L record. Brian also writes for Fangraphs and his work at both sites is highly recommended.

2) Sam at Amazin' Avenue grades the Mets offseason by looking at the projected WAR ("wins above replacement") of the players acquired and lost. It's a better approach for evaluating the offseason then the dozens of other subjective "report cards" by analysts like Jon Heyman. Heyman rated the Phillies offseason at #1, mainly because they locked up Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard to multi-year deals. That's all well and good, but their only major addition was Raul Ibanez, who they grossly overpaid.

3) Mets Fever noticed that Nick Evans is listed as 3rd on the Mets depth chart at 2nd base, per mets.com. It's an interesting possibility, because it seems Evans doesn't have a position. He isn't a good enough hitter to be valuable at 1B, and his OF defense is suspect.

4) Beyond the Boxscore announced the winner of their graph contest, and it's hilarious. It's a flowchart which takes you into the mind Dusty Baker. Fans of the late FireJoeMorgan know how terrible Baker's baseball analysis is and will especially appreciate it. But anyone who's heard Dusty announce a game and mention "clogging the basepaths" can have a laugh as well.

Evaluating Mets Baserunning

2009-02-19T07:26:00.002-05:00

I wrote an evaluation of the 2008 Mets non-stolen base/caught stealing baserunning at Amazin' Avenue. Using Baseball Prospectus's baserunning stats, we can see how many runs above or below average a player contributes by advancing on groundouts, flyouts, hits, passed balls and wild pitches. Surprise surprise, in 2008 Jose Reyes was the best baserunner on the Mets, and also the best in the National League. David Wright was the worst baserunner on the Mets in 2008.

Mets Geek column: Fun with lineups

2009-02-17T20:50:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I try to create the optimal Mets lineup based on a couple statistically based methods of lineup construction. No matter what the lineup is, I can say with certainty that it makes no sense for Luis Castillo to bat 2nd. Here's my lineup:

Jose Reyes
David Wright
Carlos Delgado
Carlos Beltran
Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
Ryan Church
Luis Castillo
Brian Schneider
Pitcher

Catcher A vs. Catcher B vs. Catcher C

2009-02-16T23:27:00.007-05:00

Let's compare the following 30+ year-old catchers anonymously, before revealing their names:

2008
Catcher A: 429 PA's, .276/.319/.394, 87 OPS+, 7 HR, threw out 32% of runners stealing
Catcher B: 384 PA's, .257/.339/.367, 87 OPS+, 9 HR, threw out 33% of runners stealing
Catcher C: 157 PA's, .245/.312/.441, 96 OPS+, 7 HR, threw out 22% of runners stealing

Projected 2009
Catcher A: .268/.303/.394, 10 HR
Catcher B: .247/.328/.360, 8 HR
Catcher C: .249/.318/.442, 13 HR

A few hints, which should give away who they are. Catcher A is a future Hall of Famer and current free agent, who has expressed an interest in playing for the Mets. Catchers B and C are currently on the Mets, and their contracts expire after 2009.

Catcher A is Ivan Rodriguez, Catcher B is Brian Schneider, and Catcher C is Ramon Castro. They're all pretty similar as the numbers suggest. What's the point? That there's no need to sign Rodriguez, unless it's for a very cheap and Castro and his $2.5 million contract can be traded. The chances of the Mets signing Rodriguez seems remote anyway, but this shows that he wouldn't be any kind of significant upgrade over the current situation.

Mets sign Livan Hernanez as deep insurance for the rotation

2009-02-15T00:43:00.009-05:00

The Mets signed El Duque's half brother Livan Hernandez to a $1 million minor league contract, with another $1 million in incentives. Hopefully he won't have a chance to meet those incentives, as the 2009 Mets will be in trouble if Livan logs any significant innings pitched. His K/9 plummeted to 3.35 in 2009, and he posted the 13th worst FIP in baseball for pitchers with 150+ IP. If he made a few more starts last year he may have given up 300 hits. Yikes. However, he is an innings eater and has a rubber arm. It pays to have insurance for this rotation, given the various concerns for John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and Freddy Garcia. All in all, not a bad signing by Omar Minaya considering the price.

Links: Beltran, Mets prospects, more steroids, and Dugout Central

2009-02-14T02:45:00.004-05:00

Some links to check out while celebrating Brett Favre's retirement:

1) Ted Berg at SNY reminds Met fans that Carlos Beltran is still awesome. And he backs it up with objective statistics. Berg also tells us why the Phillies bullpen should regress is 2009.

2) Mike Newman at Mets Geek tells us where the top Mets prospects will be playing in 2009. To be honest, I don't have a vast knowledge of the Mets minor league system, so this is a pretty good read.

3) A quote from Bill James on the steroid situation in baseball (via the venerable Joe Posnanski):

In 36 words:
1) Baseball allowed a situation to develop in which it was in the self-interest of players to use steroids.
2) Now we are very angry with people because they did what the system rewarded them for doing.

4) Dugout Central is a blog which features about a dozen or so writers posting 2-3 pieces a day about various baseball topics. I am not too impressed by the discourse and conclusions drawn by their writers, but writer Tyler Hissey has been churning out some really great stuff over there. Here are a couple solid posts:

- "Mets Overpay for Perez"
- "With Dunn and Abreu Signing, the Phillies' Ibanez Deal That Much Worse"
- "Bowden: Spending for Spending's Sake"

Here are some less-than-stellar pieces at Dugout Central by writers other than Tyler. Unfortunately for them these are the norm rather than the exception:

- "J.P. Ricciardi is MLB's Worst General Managers"
- "Nationals are Dunn-Wrong"
- "Vote: Worst MLB General Manager"

The value of throwing arms and turning double plays

2009-02-12T22:18:00.004-05:00

Fangraphs added new defensive stats this week which tell us how many runs an outfielder saves with his throwing arm and how many runs an infielder saves with his double play turning ability. Over the last few years, outfielders with the best throwing arm include Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Francouer, and Ichiro. The worst arms belong to Brian Giles, Juan Pierre, and old friend Shawn Green. Some of the best at turning double plays include Dan Uggla, Troy Glaus and Jose Reyes. Among the worst are Brian Roberts and Placido Polanco. Here's how many runs the 2009 Mets have saved over the last 3 seasons based on these stats:

David Wright is a strong fielder, but it appears he isn't too great at turning the double play. Jose Reyes had an overall down year in the field in 2008, but his double play runs make it look better. My perception was that Ryan Church had a solid throwing arm in 2008, and the numbers back it up. If he played a qualifying number of innings, he'd have had the 10th best arm in the National League. All that's missing from Fangraphs is a baserunning stat, although Baseball Prospectus has some pretty ones.

Should the Mets explore a trade with the Nationals for an OF?

2009-02-12T10:11:00.004-05:00

I posted at Amazin' Avenue about the surplus of OF's that the Nationals have after signing Adam Dunn. Apparently Dunn will play 1B for the Nats, but the following OF's, 5 of whom bat right-handed, will be on their roster or at least compete for a spot:

- Elijah Dukes
- Willie Harris
- Austin Kearns
- Lastings Milledge
- Wily Mo Pena
- Josh Willingham

Should the Mets look to trade for one of these players?

Links: Castillo, Valentin, Athletes = Rock Stars, and Ichiro pitching

2009-02-10T23:27:00.008-05:00

Some links to check out while wondering why JTIII's Hoyas have gone 3-8 since beating #1 UConn:

1) Rob at Amazin' Avenue wonders if Mets fans should be optimistic about Luis Castillo this season. His conclusion: yes. Castillo stunk in 2008, but he's been a valuable player throughout most of his career. I think it's feasible that he'll hit at a .275/.360/.350 clip. If he does, while playing serviceable defense, I'll be thrilled.

2) The Mets signed Jose Valentin to a minor league deal. Yes, the same Jose Valentin who hit 17 homers and was a nice surprise for the 2006 Mets. I have no problem with this signing, but it would be surprising to see him on the Opening Day roster. If Valentin logs a significant amount of plate appearances this season, the Mets might be in trouble.

3) I'm as sick of discussions about PED's as the next fan, but I really liked this from Tom Tango's blog (see response from Tango in the comments):

"The White American Male Adult (WAMA) thinks nothing of a rock star that is fueled by drugs. Indeed, even if the artist himself says that the drug improves his artistic qualities, this is seen as a good thing. You can take all the vices in the world, pump it into the body of a rock star, and if Sgt Pepper is the result, then the world will be at your feet."

A commenter countered by saying that this was a fallacy, i.e. rock stars are not competing against each other like pro athletes. Tango responded with this:

"The rock star / athlete is not a fallacy. Both are 'competing' against their peers. Rock stars are not subjected to daily competition, but they accumulate wealth in the same way as athletes: by performing better than their peers."

For whatever reason I was fascinated by this point. I've come full circle on this PED stuff. At first, I was like most fans - demonizing the players, hating Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, etc. However, I really don't hate any of the pre-2004 juicers (punishments for failing steroid tests were only instituted in 2004). Anyone who gets caught now, well that's a different story. I have no sympathy. That is why Bonds, Roger Clemens (although Clemens still sucks at life) and Alex Rodriguez are still Hall of Fame worthy in my book, while Rafael Palmeiro is not.

4) Here is video of a 22 year-old Ichiro pitching in the 1996 NPB All-Star Game (via Neyer). He was throwing 90+ mph back then and apparently he's still got it. He may even pitch in the upcoming WBC:

Mets Geek column: The Mets in pop culture

2009-02-10T09:34:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I look at the Mets impact on pop culture. It's a long read, but I think it's worth it. Keith Hernandez's "Seinfeld" performance, Bernard Gilkey's "Men in Black" cameo and Darryl Strawberry's appearance on "The Simpsons" are covered. This was fun to write, as pop culture is my other major area of interest in addition to baseball.

Also, I promise no more A-Rod stuff.

Fun with win expectancy: May 28, 2008 - Mets 7, Marlins 6

2009-02-09T23:11:00.006-05:00

In many ways, the Mets-Marlins game on May 28, 2008 was typical of the '08 Mets. Oliver Perez struck out 7, but surrendered 3 home runs and walked 4. Jose Reyes was on base 3 out of 6 turns at-bat. In many ways, this game was not typical of the '08 Mets. Luis Castillo hit a home run (really?). Endy Chavez also went deep (to tie it in the 9th, as we can see in the graph). The bullpen gave up just 1 run in 6 innings, although that 1 was a 12th inning homer off Duaner Sanchez. What made this game stand out was Fernando Tatis's heroics in the bottom of the 12th. Down 7-6, With David Wright on 3rd and Carlos Beltran on 1st, Tatis hit a double into the leftfield corner to drive in 2 runs and win the game. This play added .54 win probability on its own, and was the first of many clutch hits Tatis would deliver in 2008. I was lucky enough to be in attendance at Shea for 3 of Tatis's 6 home field longballs, including one to tie it in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals in August. Let's hope he can keep it up in 2009, and fight the expected decline.

Mainstream media and bloggers react to A-Rod

2009-02-08T22:57:00.011-05:00

Smart, rational reactions:
Rob Neyer - My favorite
Tom Tango - 2nd favorite
Beyond the Boxscore
Mets Police
Shysterball
Boogiedown Baseball
Mets Tailgate - Genius
Mike's Mets
Phil Allard - Great job Phil pointing out what a piece of trash this Selena Roberts is. First Duke lax, now this.
FanGraphs
Anthony Rieber

Poor reactions:
Jay Mariotti - What a shock...
Joel Sherman
Jerry Brewer
Ken Davidoff
Bill Madden
Jayson Stark - Stark's outrageous headline: "A-Rod has destroyed game's history"
Ted Keith
Bill Madden - Again! And even sillier the 2nd time around.
Wallace Matthews - If you look up the definition of 'moron' in the dictionary...

I'll add more as I come across them. Noticing a trend here? It's pretty much just the traditional mainstream media sportswriters who are outraged over this. The progressive, rational bloggers/analysts have it right. Not that this is anything out of the norm when it comes to baseball analysis.

Projected Mets 2009 Roster: Heading Into Spring Training

2009-02-08T14:38:00.003-05:00

I've updated the projected Mets roster about once a month this offseason, so here is where it stands right before spring training begins. Remember this is what I think the Mets 2009 roster will look like - not what I want it to look like.

Rotation (5)
1 - Johan Santana
2 - Mike Pelfrey
3 - John Maine
4 - Oliver Perez
5 - Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Bullpen (7)
CL - Francisco Rodriguez
J.J. Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Duaner Sanchez
Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Starting Lineup (8)
Jose Reyes, SS
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Fernando Tatis, LF
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Luis Castillo, 2B

Bench (5)
Daniel Murphy, OF/2B
Jeremy Reed/Cory Sullivan, OF
Ramon Castro, C
Marlon Anderson, OF/1B/worthless
Alex Cora, 2B/SS

A-Rod allegedly tested positive for steroids: Who cares?

2009-02-07T20:12:00.008-05:00

Who cares? That's my two word take on this Alex Rodriguez nonsense. No one is shocked (except maybe Michael Kay and John Sterling) and I think we all realize that it is not possible to declare any player of the "steroid era" 100% PED free. Not Albert Pujols. Not Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine. Heck, not even Mike Piazza. It sucks that players broke the law, and I'm not happy about it. However, there is nothing less interesting than a discussion about steroids, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, BALCO, etc. Yet the media coverage of this garbage is, and will continue to be, neverending.

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association screwed up. They turned a blind eye to steroids in return for revenue created by the 1998 home run race and increase in offense that drew fans to the stadiums. That stinks. Since then, MLB has created stiff penalties for players caught using (see J.C. Romero), and generally tried hard to remove PED's from the game. So please, let's move on. Let's not waste our time talking about spineless unnamed sources divulging information about a supposed-to-be anonymous steroid test from 2003. Especially when pitchers and catchers report in a few days.

Graphs: Paul Lo Duca, Win % vs. Attendance, and Omar's roster building model

2009-02-07T00:08:00.009-05:00

Beyond the Boxscore is holding a "graph contest", encouraging readers to make informative, interesting, or funny baseball related graphs. I didn't officially enter these, but took a few minutes out of my day to make them:

Note: wOBA ("weighted on base average") is a great stat which weighs every possible outcome of a plate appearance to gauge offensive value. It also incorporates stolen bases and is weighted against league performance in a given season. In that regard it's similar to OPS+, although wOBA is not adjusted for park factors just yet. wOBA is on a similar scale to OBP: .310 sucks, .330 is about average, anything above .370 is really good. Read here for more.

I never realized how poor the Mets attendance was in their opening season. This next one is courtesty of samt at Amazin' Avenue. I love the use of a Venn Diagram.

Odalis Perez vs. Oliver Perez

2009-02-06T09:05:00.005-05:00

I read on MLBTradeRumors that free agent lefty pitcher Odalis Perez signed a minor league deal with the Nationals, his 2008 team. Earlier this offseason, I suggested the Mets atleast consider him. Look at the following numbers, and tell me what seems strange:

That's right - Oliver Perez will make about $11 million more than Odalis. In 2008, Odalis was slightly more valuable than Ollie and projects to have just slightly less value next year. For once, the Nationals may have executed a steal of a signing. I'm not saying that I'd rather have Odalis over Ollie (I wouldn't), but it's amazing how a good agent and big city cache can artificially drive up a player's value in the free agent market.

Links: Ollie's ice cream, Lederer vs. Heyman, 2008 Mets WAR, and HBO

2009-02-05T00:10:00.006-05:00

Some links to peruse while wondering if you too could put up 50 points vs. the Knicks:

1) David Lennon at Newsday relays to us the real reason Oliver Perez re-signed with the Mets:

"Another three years means seeing Oliver Perez munch on his favorite frozen snack -- Nutty Buddies, King Cones, whatever you call them -- during his postgame interviews. That was perhaps the biggest indication that there was no way Perez was signing with the Yankees, not as long as Joe Girardi keeps a padlock on the ice cream freezer."

He can buy the Nutty Buddie company for $36 million.

2) Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts offers up a conspiracy theory about Jon Heyman's connection to superagent Scott Boras. Lederer thinks Boras feeds Heyman information about his clients in return for manipulation of the free agent market. I have to say, the evidence Lederer presents is compelling. I'd like to think even Heyman wouldn't be that big of a tool though.

3) I "post-dicted" the 2008 Mets W-L record at Amazin' Avenue, using the WAR ("wins above replacement") spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore. Read the post for more details, but WAR says the Mets were an 87 win team in 2008. In reality, they won 89. Pretty close right? WAR is not 100% infallible, but I think it's the best all-encompassing stat we have easy access to.

4) David at NY Sports Dog was invited to an early screening of a new HBO comedy with a baseball connection called "Eastbound & Down." It's produced by Will Ferrell and Adam McKay's production company and stars the hilarious Danny McBride, from "Pineapple Express" and "Tropic Thunder", so it's definitely worth a look. HBO has been surpassed by FX and AMC in producing original programming recently, so I hope for the channel's sake that this show is a hit.

Lowe/Fuentes vs. Perez/Rodriguez

2009-02-03T20:01:00.005-05:00

Derek Lowe and Brian Fuentes
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $23.75 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 11.6

Oliver Perez and Francisco Rodriguez
Average annual value of contracts signed this offseason: $24.33 million
Total WAR (wins above replacement) from 2007-2008: 7.5

The listed contracts exclude any options. Lowe and Fuentes cost slightly less but are more valuable. OK, I promise I'm done playing Monday Morning Quarterback with this Ollie signing.

Mets Geek column: Reasons for optimism

2009-02-03T08:54:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I look at some Mets who I think will improve in 2009 or have bounce-back years. J.J. Putz, Pedro Feliciano, and Carlos Beltran are three such players.

In other news, Manny Ramirez ate a slice of New York style pizza yesterday, but Jon Heyman doesn't think it's a sign he wants to play for the New York Mets. However, I will be sure to monitor this very important, ground-breaking story as it develops. All Manny, all the time right? When will it end...

"How could you give $36 million to Oliver Perez?!"

2009-02-02T21:11:00.005-05:00

I’m not as outraged as Frank Costanza was at George Steinbrenner for giving Hideki Irabu $12 million, but the same concept applies. Omar Minaya overpaid for Oliver Perez, especially in this offseason of bargain contracts (Yankees signings notwithstanding). Ollie is worth about $5-6 million a year, and got $12 million. Props to his agent Scott Boras and a big thumbs down to the Mets statistics department, if there is one. I’ve written enough posts against signing Ollie for this much money, so I’m kind of relieved to move on. However, Ollie has my 100% support and I hope he proves me wrong over the next three years.

Top 10: Single season by a Mets starting pitcher

2009-02-01T10:57:00.008-05:00

To determine the best single seasons by Mets starting pitchers, I looked mainly at innings pitched, ERA, ERA+ (park and league adjusted ERA), and FIP (fielding independent pitching). Complete games, shutouts, K/BB, etc. were also considered. Playoffs were not. The list is dominated by Tom Seaver, as expected, although Dwight Gooden also makes multiple appearances and some recent performances made the cut.

10. David Cone, 1988
231.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 146 ERA+, 2.58 FIP

I really wanted to include Bret Saberhagen's awesome 1994 strike-shortened season (he posted a ridiculous 11.00 K/BB), but Cone's season wins out. Cone was a strikeout machine early in his career, and is still the Mets all-time leader in K/9.

9. Al Leiter, 1998
193 IP, 2.47 ERA, 170 ERA+, 3.15 FIP

Leiter's first season with the Mets was his best. He might be higher on the list if he pitched more innings.

8. Johan Santana, 2008
234.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 166 ERA+, 3.51 FIP

As I've covered elsewhere, Santana was a bit lucky in 2008. However, he led the league in IP and ERA and pitched one of the best games in Mets history on Sept. 27, 2008.

7. Jon Matlack, 1974
265.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 149 ERA+, 2.42 FIP

Matlack is one of the most underappreciated Met pitchers ever. The big lefty easily could have had multiple seasons on this list. He won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1972 and was a big part of the Mets run to the 1973 World Series.

6. Tom Seaver, 1969
273.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 165 ERA+, 3.11 FIP

Entries 4 through 6 are pretty interchangeable here, but I put Seaver behind Gooden and Jerry Koosman because of his FIP. That 1969 Mets pitching staff was ridiculously good.

5. Dwight Gooden, 1984
218 IP, 2.60 ERA, 137 ERA+, 1.69 FIP

Darryl Strawberry and Gooden won back-to-back Rookie of the Year Awards in 1983 and 1984. Gooden should have won the Cy Young Award in 1984 as well, but he would more than make up for it in 1985. His ERA would have been better in 1984, if not for a somewhat unlucky .313 BABIP.

4. Jerry Koosman, 1969
241 IP, 2.28 ERA, 160 ERA+, 2.67 FIP

In Mets history, Koosman is 2nd in IP, 2nd in complete games, and 2nd in shutouts. One guess who is 1st in those categories.

3. Tom Seaver, 1973
290 IP, 2.08 ERA, 175 ERA+, 2.57 FIP

Bill James once said there is an argument that Seaver should be regarded as the best pitcher of all-time. That may be a stretch, but he was incredible. He still holds the distinction of receiving the highest % of Hall of Fame votes, being named on 98.84% of ballots.

2. Tom Seaver, 1971
286.1 IP, 1.76 ERA, 193 ERA+, 1.93 FIP

See entry #3.

1. Dwight Gooden, 1985
276.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 228 ERA+, 2.13 FIP

I think few could argue that this isn't the best single season in the history of Mets starting pitchers. Doc's numbers in 1984 and 1985 are just mind-blowing, and I wish the Mets could have limited his IP in those early years. That was a different era though. Hopefully Doc can keep himself on the straight and narrow, and make some Citi Field/SNY appearances as Strawberry has.

Honorable Mention: Bret Saberhagen - 1994; Pedro Martinez - 2005; Seaver - 1968, 1970, 1975, 1976; Koosman - 1968, 1976; Matlack - 1972; Craig Swan - 1978; Frank Viola - 1990; Sid Fernandez - 1992; Rick Reed - 1997; Mike Hampton - 2000

Which Mets pitchers will elicit groans at Citi Field?

2009-01-31T00:23:00.005-05:00

The collapse of the 2007 Mets caused fans to be impatient with the 2008 Mets pitching staff. Audible groans could be heard at Shea Stadium when Mets pitchers fell behind 2-0 or even 1-0 in the count, no matter the inning or situation. Let's take a look at the projected 2009 Mets pitching staff's "Zone %" (percentage of pitches in the strike zone) and "F-Strike %" (first strike percentage) from 2008 to determine which pitchers may cause rumblings from the fans at Citi Field:

J.J. Putz's numbers look like a fluke, as his F-Strike % and Zone % have been outstanding throughout his career. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for Francisco Rodriguez. As anecdotally frustrating as he was, Billy Wagner could come in and throw strikes. Johan Santana had a down year in both statistics, and was still terrific. Hopefully Mets fans will be more patient in 2009, though I fear they won't after 2008's finish.

Links: Mets catchers, Heyman = clueless, Heilman, and perception vs. reality

2009-01-28T23:04:00.008-05:00

Here's some links to check out while you wonder why only one Mets blogger heeded my advice to shut up about Manny Ramirez:

1) Rob at Amazin' Avenue takes a look at the Mets catching situation, namely Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro:

"Basically, what I'm saying is that our catching situation is fine. It's not great, but it's not bad either. Like I said, its league average, which is more than enough to win. I have just been amazed by how many people consider it one of Omar's cardinal necessities to improve the catching situation."

I agree, and I'm glad that Met fans have dialed down the support for an upgrade at catcher. Schneider and Castro's contracts expire after 2009, so catcher will need to be addressed next offseason.

2) R.J. Anderson at Beyond the Boxscore quickly and neatly takes apart Jon Heyman's ridiculous statement that free agent OF Garret Anderson has "been among the more productive outfielders in the AL over the last several years." Heyman is pretty good at being a baseball "insider", even if there are 5 false rumors for every 1 he has right. However, he is simply embarrassing at analysis.

3) Poor Aaron Heilman. He was traded again, this time to the Cubs. He was one of my favorite Mets (less so in 2008), and I hope he finds success in his post-Mets career. The Cubs don't come to Citi Field until September - imagine Heilman starting a game against the Mets in the heat of a pennant race.

4) The blog What's A Tarrarel? picks apart the classic Hall of Fame argument that usually goes something like this:

"I don't need numbers to tell me a player is Hall worthy - I saw him play, and that is enough for me! Only math geeks and losers living with their parents think Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines should make it!"

The Hall of Fame voting process is something of a fascination for me, and I wish every voter who put Jim Rice, Jack Morris, or Andre Dawson on their ballot could read this great little piece.

Mets 2009 rotation: Could it be identical to 2008's?

2009-01-28T22:02:00.006-05:00

It seems inevitable that the Mets will sign Oliver Perez, and Jon Heyman at SI reports that Omar Minaya's undying love for Pedro Martinez may lead to a contract. I know I've said it before, but it is time to cut ties with Pedro. There's nothing more to say about that possibility. Also, assuming Ollie is signed for $10 million a year and Pedro $4 million (plus incentives?), I'd estimate team payroll to be around $140 million. This just about confirms that no significant upgrades would be made at the corner OF position.

The strategy for the rotation appears to be similar to the corner OF strategy. Why sign an impact player (i.e. Adam Dunn) when you can have Cory Sullivan, Rob Mackowiak, and Angel Pagan? Why acquire a front-line starting pitcher (i.e. Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, or Javier Vazquez) when you can have Oliver Perez, Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Pedro Martinez? I liked the Redding and Garcia contracts, but only if coupled with a Lowe or Sheets signing. Lowe is now a Brave, and it doesn't seem like Sheets-to-the-Mets is likely.

If the 2009 rotation is Santana-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine-Martinez/Redding/Garcia, it projects to be identical or slightly worse than 2008's:

The projections seem reasonable except Pedro's, which I think is too generous. The bullpen has been upgraded, but not by as much as one would think. The lineup also projects the same or slightly worse than 2008. I'll hold off until the team is finalized before judging Omar Minaya, but at this point it doesn't seem like 2009 Mets will be better than the 2008 Mets.

Fun with win expectancy: June 30, 2000 - Mets 11, Braves 8

2009-01-27T21:00:00.015-05:00

A win expectancy graph is pretty self explanatory. It tells us the the probability that a team will win a game at any point in that game, based on score, innings, situation, etc. The graph above is from the Mets-Braves game on June 30, 2000 which the Mets memorably won 11-8. It was played on a Friday evening which also happened to be "Fireworks Night" at Shea Stadium. Through the first 7.5 innings it looked like only the post-game fireworks would be the only thing cheered that night. Heading into the bottom of the 8th, and the Braves ahead 8-1, the Mets win expectancy stood pretty close to zero. Then the following happened:

Derek Bell, single

Edgardo Alfonzo, flyout to CF (1 out)

Mike Piazza, single

Robin Ventura, RBI groundout (2 outs, 8-2 Braves)

Todd Zeile, RBI single (8-3 Braves)

Jay Payton, single

Benny Agbayani, walk

Mark Johnson, RBI walk (8-4 Braves)

Melvin Mora, RBI walk (8-5 Braves)

Derek Bell, RBI walk (8-6 Braves)

Edgardo Alfonzo, 2 RBI single (8-8 tied!)

Mike Piazza, 3-run home run (11-8 Mets)

Robin Ventura, groundout (end of inning, 11-8 Mets)

Other than Ventura making 2 outs in the same frame, wow, what an inning. It's pretty simple to locate the bottom of the 8th on the win expectancy graph. The Mets went from 0.5% to 96.7% in one turn at bat. I was fortunate enough to watch this game on TV in its entirety, and it's still of my favorites ever. Piazza's laser 3-run shot off Terry Mulholland must have gone out of the park in no more than 1.5 seconds. Best of all, most of the 52,000+ remained in to see it happen because they were waiting for the postgame fireworks. I'll post more win expectancy graphs (courtesy of Fangraphs) from memorable Mets games from time to time.

Short, semi-angry post: Enough with the Manny talk

2009-01-27T19:50:00.007-05:00

If I read one more post by a Mets blogger about Manny Ramirez I'm going to scream. Yes, he'd fit in nicely in the Mets lineup and I'd be thrilled to have him. He'd also cost a boatload of money (he already turned down 2 years, $45 million from the Dodgers). As it looks right now, the Mets will not have enough $$ to sign Manny. Enough already.

**EDIT**: An e-mailer asked why I don't think Manny is a realistic option. By my calculation, the Mets payroll is around $125-127 million right now. I'm assuming they will sign Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets (more likely Ollie). That's $135-$137 million. Manny will cost atleast $22 million, which would send the payroll into the range of $160 million. I feel secure in saying that Omar Minaya does not have $160 million to spend on the 2009 Mets.

Mets Geek column: Bracing for disappointment

2009-01-26T09:51:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I take a look at 4 Mets who may regress from their 2008 performances based on statistical indicators and injury potential. They are Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Murphy, and Fernando Tatis. I hope all of them have awesome years, but there are definitely concerns about each of these players' production declining for various reasons.

A team composed of the remaining free agents

2009-01-25T21:40:00.005-05:00

With about 3 weeks to go before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, an astounding 90+ free agents remain unsigned. Here is a team composed entirely of these free agents, which I think would be a playoff contender in the National League:

Rotation
Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte, Randy Wolf, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland

Bullpen
Juan Cruz (closer), Will Ohman, Joe Beimel, Russ Springer, Jason Isringhausen, Eric Gagne, Braden Looper (long-man)

Lineup
C - Jason Varitek
1B - Adam Dunn
2B - Orlando Hudson
3B - Joe Crede
SS - Orlando Cabrera
OF - Manny Ramirez
OF - Jim Edmonds
OF - Bobby Abreu

Bench
Ivan Rodriguez, Kevin Millar, Ray Durham, Ty Wigginton, Eric Hinske

Links: Mets on SI covers, Strikeouts and the "Curious Case of Forrest Gump"

2009-01-24T00:50:00.014-05:00

Some links to check out while you wonder why the Mets let Dwight Gooden pitch 744.2 innings before he turned 22 years old:

1) Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue presents part 1 of a visual history of Mets who made the cover of Sports Illustrated. Check out the cover featuring Ron Swoboda from 1968. He bears a slight resemblance to David Wright, from the side atleast.

2) The always insightful Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts writes about the stat "K/100", which is strikeouts per 100 pitches. Lederer says this is better than K/9 for measuring a starter's effectiveness, as it combines strikeout ability with pitch count maintenance. The average starter has lasted about 100 pitchers per start in recent years, so I think he's on to something here. In 2008, out of 142 pitchers that logged atleast 100 IP, Johan Santana was 18th with 5.73 K/100. Oliver Perez was 30th with 5.35 K/100 and Mike Pelfrey was 122nd with 3.31 K/100. Improve that strikeout rate Big Pelf.

3) At mlb.com, Matthew Leach writes about the changing perception of strikeouts for hitters. Leach writes:

"A player who strikes out 100 or more times can still be thought of as a winning player if he does the other things right: specifically, getting on base and hitting for power. For a hitter, the key question is: Did you make an out, or not? Above anything else, "statheads" rightly boil things down to that fundamental issue. Outs are bad. Any plate appearance that does not end in an out is good."

This concept is not anything new to informed baseball fans, but it's nice to see such a piece on mlb.com. Leach also discusses fielding independent pitching stats (such as FIP and tRA), which are better for predicting future performance and assessing a pitcher's value. Analysts on the MLB Network cited ERA+ recently, so maybe progress is being made on the advanced-statistics-as-mainstream front.

4) Unrelated to baseball, but check out this video from Funny or Die comparing "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" to "Forrest Gump." I haven't seen Button, but after watching the video it looks like I can save my $9.75 and just re-watch the DVD of Gump instead.

Mets sign backup OF Rob Mackowiak - Why?!

2009-01-23T22:29:00.004-05:00

Lefty hitting OF Rob Mackowiak has signed with the Mets on a 1-year minor league deal worth atleast $600K. Mackowiak is yet another crappy corner OF the Mets have acquired or re-signed this offseason along with Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan, and Angel Pagan. I don't understand this signing and think it's a total waste of money. Apparently Omar Minaya's philosophy is "Why sign 1 very good corner OF (Adam Dunn) when I can have 4 shitty ones?" That is one crowded OF, with Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in the mix. Does Omar realize that a team can only have 25 players on its roster?

Anyways, Mackowiak can play a lot of positions decently and will likely put up a line around .250/.330/.370 if he makes the team. I just don't see where he fits in. I'd have much rather seen the money given to Sullivan and Mackowiak go towards the "Ben Sheets Fund."

Mets sign RHP Freddy Garcia - Rotation still needs help

2009-01-23T00:03:00.005-05:00

The Mets signed right-handed starting pitcher Freddy Garcia to a minor league deal, according to Adam Rubin at the Daily News. Reportedly, Garcia can make as much as $8-9 million if he makes the team and reaches a bunch of incentives. Those better be some lofty incentives if the Mets are to pay $8 million to a guy who has pitched a combined 78 innings (majors and minors) over the last 2 seasons due to injury.

This is a good pick-up, especially if Garcia can return to his workhorse 1999-2006 form. He has a career FIP of 4.22 in 1700+ innings, and I could see him making 10-15 starts this year. I really hope Ben Sheets is signed as well. It doesn't seem like the Mets have any interest in Andy Pettitte (unfortunately), so I'll give up on that pipe dream. I've said it over and over again, but at this point Oliver Perez at any more than $9 million a year just isn't going to cut it.

How much were Mets pitchers worth in 2008?

2009-01-21T23:58:00.004-05:00

FanGraphs now has win value stats up for pitchers. The stat "WAR" (wins above replacement) tells us how many "wins" a player contributes over a replacement pitcher, which is defined as a readily available pitcher whose performance is well below league average. I understand the calculations of WAR for hitters, but I'm still trying to make complete sense of it for pitchers. Nevertheless, this is pretty high-level stuff and can decently pinpoint just how much a player is worth based on performance. Here are Mets pitchers' WAR, $$ worth for 2008 assuming a value of about $4.5 million per win, and actual salary:

A few thoughts:
1) Johan Santana is awesome. Hopefully he can keep it up for a few more years.
2) John Maine was worth more than Oliver Perez despite pitching 50+ fewer innings. Enough said. 3 years, $30 million Ollie - take it or leave it.
3) Sayanora Pedro Martinez, Aaron Heilman, and Scott Schoeneweis.
4) This stat suggests that middle relievers and closers are overrated and generally paid more than they're really worth. Interesting.

Again, this win value stuff isn't infallible but it's well researched by some smart people. Click here for an introduction to pitcher win values. Hopefully free agent signings will start to pick up soon - check out the impressive list of players still available.

Former Mets GM Steve Phillips to announce on Sunday Night Baseball

2009-01-20T23:59:00.009-05:00

This has to be a joke right? According to Neil Best's Watchdog blog, Steve Phillips will be joining Jon Miller and Joe Morgan in the booth on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball to form perhaps the worst announcing trio in the history of sport (no exaggeration). Tuning in will be a painful experience, between Miller's "bel-TRAN!" and "SAFE!", Morgan's ignorance and Phillips's inane ramblings. Here are a few Phillips gems from over the years, courtesy of Fire Joe Morgan:

"You talked a little bit about the scouting reports and also about statistics. Where do the Cleveland Indians fall in this era where numbers have become more important than maybe the people?" - During an interview with Indians GM Mark Shapiro

"The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox could both score 1,000 runs this season." - The Tigers scored 821 runs; the Red Sox, 845

"Bonds is just like Giambi in that he walks a lot and hits some home runs, but when he's not hitting the home runs he's a baseclogger." - Baseclogging. Nice.

Quote of the day about Oliver "Overrated" Perez

2009-01-20T18:36:00.004-05:00

My favorite line of the day, courtesy of Dave Cameron at Fangraphs. At the end of a post on win value statistics, he writes:

"Over the last four years, Oliver Perez has been worth a total of 2.5 wins in nearly 600 innings. And he wants $12 million a year for 5 years. Maybe he's the left-handed Gil Meche, and he's going to turn the corner immediately after signing a big contract, but there's about a 5% chance of that being true and about a 95% chance that he's the most overrated pitcher in baseball."

Anyone familiar with what I've been writing here and at Mets Geek over the last few weeks knows that I agree 100% with what Dave is saying. Perez may be the most overrated pitcher in baseball... wow. Do you think Omar Minaya reads FanGraphs? (Note: The 2.5 wins Dave mentions are not wins as in W-L record for a pitcher - it's wins above replacement. For comparison, Johan Santana has been worth 24.3 wins over the last 4 seasons spanning 900+ innings.)

Mets Geek column: Let's get Pettitte

2009-01-20T09:03:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I further explore the merits of signing Andy Pettitte. As I wrote last week, I am very much in favor of a 1 or 2-year deal for Pettitte, should negotiations with Ben Sheets fall apart.

Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog thinks Sheets is looking for a deal of about 2 years, $18 million with incentives and a 3rd year option. I'm not sure how accurate that is, but if it's true Omar Minaya should sign him ASAP. That would be a great contract, even with Sheets' injury risk.

WBC rosters announced

2009-01-19T23:10:00.005-05:00

The World Baseball Classic provisional rosters have been released. A number of current Mets are included, but aren't necessarily going to play. David Wright, Brian Schneider, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, Alex Cora, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Feliciano, Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Nelson Figueroa, and Jose Reyes are on rosters. Here's a quick look at other notable players and their countries:

Australia - Grant Balfour, Ryan Rowland-Smith
Canada - Rheal Cormier, Jeff Francis, Eric Gagne, Rich Harden, Russell Martin, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Jason Bay
China - ????
Chinese Taipei - ????
Cuba - ????
Dominican Republic - Jose Arredondo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Vladimir Guerrero
Italy - Mike Napoli, Sal Fasano, Frank Catalanotto, Robert Fick, Nick Punto,Val Pascucci
Japan - Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Kenji Johjima, Akinori Iwamura, Ichiro, Kosuke Fukudome
Korea - Byun-Hyun Kim, Jae Seo
Mexico - Oliver Perez, Matt Garza, Luis Ayala, Joakim Soria, Jorge Cantu, Adrian Gonzalez
Netherlands - Jair Jurrjens, Shairon Martis, Sidney Ponson
Panama - Bruce Chen, Manny Corpas, Carlos Ruiz, Carlos Lee
Puerto Rico - Pedro Feliciano, Ian Snell, Javier Vazquez, Geovany Soto, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rios, Bernie Williams
South Africa - ????
United States - John Danks, Brian Fuentes, J.J. Putz, John Lackey, Brian McCann, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Jimmy Rollins, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Ludwick
Venezuela - Francisco Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Victor Zambrano, Carlos Zambrano, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Endy Chavez

Mets sign LHP Casey Fossum

2009-01-18T21:10:00.007-05:00

The Mets signed journeyman lefty Casey Fossum to a minor-league contract. This signing is not bad as long as Omar Minaya is not planning on handing a major league roster spot to Fossum on Opening Day. He is basically a lefty specialist, evidenced by these splits:

Career
vs. RHB: .845 OPS against
vs. LHB: .722 OPS against

2008
vs. RHB: .920 OPS against
vs. LHB: .674 OPS against

The Mets are paying Scott Schoeneweis $1.6 million next season to pitch for the Diamondbacks. He was a terrific lefty specialist last season (.520 OPS against), so it would be pretty foolish for the Mets to add a LOOGY (lefty one-out guy) to the 'pen after trading Schoew. Who knows, maybe the former 1st round pick Fossum can get his act together in AAA and figure out how to get righties out. Until then, he should not be on the New York Mets 25-man roster.

Batting Stance Guy impersonates the Mets

2009-01-18T15:20:00.003-05:00

Here is a video of "Batting Stance Guy" doing his impersonation of various Mets hitters, past and present. It's pretty spot on, and I like his impression of David Wright the best. (via NY Baseball Digest).

Links: Mets free agent news, Carlos Delgado in 2009, Bert Blyleven vs. Jack Morris, and more Hall of Fame

2009-01-17T13:21:00.010-05:00

Some links to check out while you ponder whether Bert Blyleven's Hall of Fame case is helped or hurt by the shirt he's wearing in this picture:

1) Peter Botte of the Daily News (via MLBTradeRumors) had some thoughts/rumors about the Mets free agent pursuits. Here they are, with my brief thoughts as well:

- The Mets are probably not interested in Andruw Jones: Good!
- They're "not even in" on Manny Ramirez: The only way I want Manny is if they fail to land Ben Sheets or Andy Pettitte. In that scenario they would have to drastically upgrade the lineup.
- They won't have an agreement with Oliver Perez anytime soon: Hopefully the only agreement they have with Ollie is for 3 years, $15 million or less.
- They've been in contact with Randy Wolf and Jon Garland: Neither of these guys thrill me, but they aren't that big a step down from Perez.
- They've talked with Freddy Garcia: Meh. I say sign him, but only if Sheets or Pettitte is signed as well.

2) Brian Joura at FanGraphs writes about what to expect from Carlos Delgado in 2009. He thinks Delgado's poor 2007 and first couple months of 2008 were a result of his wrist injury. After some great LD% and BABIP analysis, he concludes that we should expect a similar offensive output from Delgado in 2009 as 2008. This means about 30-35 HR, and a .265/.350/.510 line. Works for me.

3) Joe DelGrippo at NY Baseball Digest wrote a hilariously awful piece yesterday about why he would vote for Jack Morris but not Bert Blyleven for the Hall of Fame. Joey D. manages to insult many readers in the process. He wrote the piece in response to a comment I made on a previous post of his, and it is just terrible. Joey D's main argument is that Morris had a higher win % than Blyleven. This, as we all know, is an awful way to evaluate a pitcher. Check out the comments section - there's 24 comments and the only one's not completely ripping Joey D. a new one are the 2 he made himself. Here is a snippet from the post:

"Too many people are so wrapped up in statistics, especially the new stats that seem to spew out of every sabermetric bloggers mouth. Those bloggers are guys who mostly never played the game at any decent level above Little League, but they know the OPS+ of every guy not in the HOF but should be based on WARP 3."

Right. So basically he's saying stats are stupid, then goes on to tell us about Morris's win % and average W-L record each season. These are, ya know, stats. For the last time, Blyleven pitched 1000 more innings than Morris, with a higher K rate, lower BB rate, lower HR allowed rate, and MUCH lower ERA. Blyleven had a 2.47 postseason ERA and Morris a 3.80 ERA. It's no contest. If Mike Silva, proprietor of the recommended NY Baseball Digest, had any sense he'd either have a little chat with Joey D. or kick him off the site altogether.

4) I'm pretty obsessed with this Hall of Fame stuff. I have an utter contempt for the sportswriters who vote on the HOF and refuse to learn about or use modern statistics to evaluate players for their ballots. King Kaufman at Salon shares my sentiments:

"It's one thing to criticize the new stats. But it's another thing to simply dismiss them without bothering to figure out what they're all about. And then to try to pass this off as wisdom. It's what's going on in the world we're covering. In what other profession do practitioners brag about their ignorance regarding current events and developments? In what other area of journalism is lack of awareness a mark of distinction? Cut it out, fellow writers. Do your job. Engage with your material. Stay current. Learn about things you don't understand. Ignorance isn't a virtue. It's not something to brag about. It's something to fix."

I couldn't agree more. These men get paid to write about sports and have the privilege (not the right) to vote on the Hall of Fame. And many of them wear their lack of statistical knowledge as a badge of honor. Get with it guys. Modern medicine no longer practices phrenology or uses leeches as a cure; modern baseball writers should not be using W-L records, batting average and RBI to evaluate players.

How about Andy Pettitte?

2009-01-15T23:34:00.004-05:00

My first choice for the Mets open rotation spot(s) is Ben Sheets. When healthy, he is a dominant, #1 type pitcher. I think Omar Minaya is reluctant to go after Sheets because he fears him turning into a younger version of injury prone Pedro Martinez and El Duque. I see Andy Pettitte as the next best option. Compare the FIP's of various pitchers:

Pettitte is not that big a dropoff from Derek Lowe. Forget Oliver Perez. The reason Pettitte isn't getting the respect he deserves this offseason was his inflated ERA (4.54 in 2008) due to bad luck and poor defense (see: Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano). He is a near lock for 200 IP even at age 36 and would be the #2 pitcher in the rotation. FanGraphs pegs Pettitte's 1-year contract value at $15 million and BtB said $14 million. He turned down 1-year and $10 million from the Yankees, and I would love to see the Mets offer as much as $12-13 million for 1 year of Pettitte's services.

Roundup: Mets sign Alex Cora, Johan and the WBC, Mota signs with Dodgers

2009-01-14T22:51:00.009-05:00

1) The Mets signed 33 year-old utility man Alex "Joey" Cora to a 1 year, $2 million contract. Who needs Derek Lowe when you've got Alex Cora! Cora is an able fielder at 2B and SS. He's not much at the plate, but posted a career high .371 OBP last season. Expect a line of about .250/.320/.340. Also expect him to be better than Damion Easley or Argenis Reyes. It's an overpay at $2 million, but whatever. Cross this off the list of offseason priorities. The following areas still need to be addressed: starting pitcher, lefty reliever, corner OF.

2) Johan Santana says he will let the Mets decide if he plays in the World Baseball Classic for his native Venezuela in March. Remember he had knee surgery following 2008, so I hope the Mets advise Santana to pass. We'll see if Venezuela leader Hugo Chavez places a call to Omar Minaya about letting Johan play.

3) Former Met reliever Guillermo Mota signed with the Dodgers for 1 year and $2.35 million + incentives. This is an awful, awful signing. Mota posted a FIP of 4.45 and K/BB of 1.79 in 2008. According to the stat WAR, he was worth -$900,000 last year. That's right, he was worse than a replacement pitcher and therefore worth negative $$. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti continues to be one of the worst in the business. Just look at this laundry list of terrible free agent signings: Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones. Although he did acquire Manny Ramirez at the deadline last year, and the Hiroki Kuroda signing looks to be a good one.

The Derek Lowe fallout

2009-01-13T22:32:00.006-05:00

Derek Lowe signed with the Braves today for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news because:

1) Lowe was the best remaining starter on the market and I wanted the Mets to sign him.
2) He signed with the Braves, who now have the best rotation in the NL East: Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and Tim Hudson (if he returns from injury)
3) This likely drives up the price for supposed "Plan B" option, Oliver Perez. As I wrote at Mets Geek today, Lowe is far superior to Ollie. I get the feeling many Met fans think they're close in value, but they simply aren't. Seriously, compare their FIP's and $$ value's based on the stat WAR over the last 2 seasons:

Lowe
2007: 3.97 - $13.1 million
2008: 3.26 - $15.8 million

Perez
2007: 4.35 - $8.5 million
2008: 4.68 - $5.3 million

I'd prefer it if Omar Minaya signed Ben Sheets, as Sheets is the last dominating pitcher left on the market. This seems unlikely. Apparently Omar is a huge fan of Ollie, so I think the Mets will go after him hard. This is not a problem, as long as the Mets do not overpay for him and have $$ leftover to sign Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez. However, if the Mets eventually sign Ollie for anything resembling 4 years, $52 million I plan to buy the URL: http://www.fiya-minaya.com/ (think "fire Minaya").

Mets Geek Column: Lowe vs. Perez

2009-01-13T10:42:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I argue in favor of signing Derek Lowe over Oliver Perez. I think it's pretty clear Lowe is the better pitcher, even for the next 3-4 years. I'm dreading a scenario where the Braves sign Lowe for 4 years, $56 million, then the Mets lock up Ollie for 4 years, $52 million.

***EDIT***: Well Lowe signed with the Braves for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news for so many reasons. More to come later.

Omar: Say NO to Michael Young

2009-01-12T22:06:00.004-05:00

Yet another installment of my "SAY NO" series, it was revealed today that Rangers SS Michael Young has requested/demanded a trade after the team asked him to move to 3B next season. The Mets supposedly had interest in trading for Young last month to play 2B, and I wrote about it here. My stance against acquiring Young has not changed, and here are the reasons why:

1) He is 32 years old and owed $62 million over the next 5 seasons. That's $12+ million a year for a guy guy whose OPS+ has dropped like this:
2005: 138
2006: 107
2007: 106
2008: 96

2) He won a Gold Glove in 2008, but his defense isn't all that great. He's never posted a UZR better than -3.7 since becoming a regular major leaguer, and is a cumulative -22 on the Dewan +/- scale over the last 3 seasons. So that Gold Glove is kind of a sham.

3) A man by the name of Luis Castillo is currently 1st on the Mets depth chart at 2B. He would have to be traded before Young could be acquired. The Rangers have a 26 year-old star named Ian Kinsler manning 2B, so Castillo would not be a fit there.

I don't take this rumor seriously, and highly doubt Omar Minaya is seeking a trade for Young. But just in case - say no to Michael Young.

Corner OF's Henderson and Rice voted into Hall of Fame

2009-01-12T19:34:00.007-05:00

Congratulations to Rickey Henderson for being elected to the Hall of Fame. Rickey is one of the greatest players of all time and he garnered 94.8% of the vote (but should've had 100%). To be elected, a player must appear on 75% of all ballots.

Congratulations to Jim Rice for being wrongfully elected to the Hall of Fame on his 15th and final year of eligibility with 76.4% of the vote. Apologies to the following OF's, who are as good or better than Rice as all around players and will never be elected:

- Dwight Evans
- Frank Howard
- Dave Parker
- Albert Belle
- Reggie Smith
- Roy White
- Brian Downing

Rice may have been the 3rd best OF on his own team during much of his career (behind Evans and Fred Lynn) and he makes the Hall. Meanwhile Bert Blyleven garners 62.7%, Tim Raines 22.6% and Alan Trammell 17.4%. Whatever. I came across a great quote from Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus:

"Bill James once wrote that the further removed you got from a player’s career, the more that career became about the player’s numbers. In Rice’s case, the exact opposite effect occurred. As we looked more and more at the numbers and realized that Rice had a short career, and a short peak, and didn’t hit all that well outside of Fenway Park, and his peak was more about counting stats built in a great lineup than what he did himself, and that he didn’t contribute very much outside of the batter’s box…his vote totals grew."

The members of the BBWAA (who vote on the HOF, and postseason awards like MVP and Cy Young) continue to embarrass themselves with these results. A total of 28 voters left Henderson off their ballots. Let me write that again: 28 current or former professional baseball writers do not think that Rickey Henderson, the all time leader in runs scored and stolen bases, the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history, is worthy of being enshrined in the Hall of Fame. To quote ESPN's Jayson Stark: "Stupefying. Embarrassing. Inexcusable."

Links: Closer Music, Schneider's Defense, Hall of Fame, and a Rickey Drinking Game

2009-01-10T18:47:00.005-05:00

Here's some links while wondering if Francisco Rodriguez loves the smell of napalm in the morning:

1) SNY's Ted Berg makes some non-traditional suggestions for Francisco Rodriguez's entrance music. Here is part 1 and here is part 2. These are my favorites:

"1. 4'33" - John Cage: Cage's piece, for the unfamiliar, consists of four minutes and thirty three seconds of no music at all. This would require a whole lot of fan participation. If everyone -- every fan, every vender, every usher, every bathroom attendant -- could remain silent while the pitcher walked in from the bullpen and threw his warm-ups, well, that'd be about as badass an entrance as I could imagine.

1. Ride of the Valkyries - Richard Wagner: As far as I know, no closer has even considered something classical and so, while using "Ride of the Valkyries" to herald impending doom a la Apocalypse Now may be old news in some settings, on a baseball field it'd be brand new. And triumphant."

Can't argue with his #1 choice - I wrote a few months back that Ride of the Valkyries would be my entrance music.

2) Adam Rubin at the Daily News posted a reader's email which claimed that Brian Schneider was the cause of the Mets bullpen failures in 2008. The stats presented seemed cherry-picked and strange to me, but before I could take a closer look samt at Amazin' Avenue posted a rebuttal. Needless to say, I'm with samt on this one - Schneider is not Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate, but he certainly did not make Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano serve up gopher balls last summer.

3) The 70 year-old Hall of Fame voter named Corky Simpson who left Rickey Henderson off of his ballot regrets doing so. He says it was just an oversight and not an attempt to make a statement. Apparently he does not regret including Matt Williams on his ballot. Additionally, Simpson has some choice words for the Internet and presumably bloggers:

"I think of the literature on the Internet in the same way that I think of the literature on the walls of public bathrooms. With the exception that the literature on the walls of public bathrooms is a little higher class."

And

"The Internet is like a sewer. It’s very necessary, but you wouldn’t want to spend a lot of time there."

Someone please tell me why people like this are determining who gets into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

4) Fantasy baseball website Razzball gives us the "Rickey Henderson Hall of Fame Speech Drinking Game." It's pretty hilarious and my favorite is:

"Tells a story using himself in the 3rd person: chug a beer"

Better get a 30-rack ready for Rickey's big speech.

Mets sign Tim Redding - Rotation still needs help

2009-01-10T13:11:00.004-05:00

The Mets signed Tim Redding to a 1-year, $2.25 million contract with incentives. I previously advocated signing Redding, and I think this is a strong deal considering the cost. Marcel and CHONE project Redding at somewhere around 160 IP and a 4.90 FIP, which I'll gladly take from my #5 starter. Fangraphs likes the deal and BtB pegged his value at about $5 million. Of course his spot in the rotation isn't guaranteed, as Jon Niese could win the job in spring training.

I'm fairly certain the Mets will sign either Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez, and I really hope it's Lowe. A rotation of Santana-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine-Redding would be no better than last season's, especially considering the pitchers' health issues. Adding Lowe would be a significant upgrade, so let's hope the negotiations with Scott Boras go well.

FIP+ and the 2009 Mets rotation

2009-01-08T20:01:00.010-05:00

A pitching statistic I have frequently used here is FIP (“fielding independent pitching”). It is superior to ERA for pitcher evaluation, as it removes the variables a pitcher has no control over – defense, bullpen, and luck. Instead, it focuses on outcomes the pitcher controls – strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. It is measured on the same scale as ERA and is better for predicting future performance. Read more about it in the pitching stat glossary section on the top right of the page. FIP+ adjusts a player’s FIP for league and park factors, similar to OPS+ and ERA+. A FIP+ of 100 is league average; a FIP+ of 110 is 10% better than league average. Let’s take a look at the 2008 FIP, FIP+, and ERA of the 2009 Mets starters and prospective Mets starters:

To summarize:
a) I hate to say it, but Johan Santana’s ERA in 2008 was somewhat lucky. His left-on-base % (LOB %) was unsustainably high. Coming off knee surgery, I think his ERA will regress in 2009. Then again, Citi Field may be a pitcher’s park in the mold of Petco Park so maybe his ERA will remain sub-3.00.
b) Derek Lowe was outstanding in 2008. His FIP was 3rd in the league behind Tim Lincecum and Danny Haren. He almost certainly won’t be able to repeat that performance, considering ’08 was a contract year and he’s 35 years old. I still think he’ll be a top tier pitcher for the next couple years – his 2009 Marcel projection has him at a 3.67 FIP. Compare to Santana, who is projected at 3.60 or C.C. Sabathia at 3.16.
c) Oliver Perez was 9% worse than league average in 2008, his contract year. This worries me. Tell me again why he’s worth $12 million a year? Don’t get me wrong – I like Ollie. I just don’t want the Mets to overpay for talent, especially in this off-season of bargains (Yankees signings excluded).
d) As I’ve posted previously, my ideal feasible 2009 Mets rotation would be Santana, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, and Redding, with Niese expected to make a few starts. Let’s see how this group’s FIP+ stacks up with those of the 2008 Phillies and Cubs, the top 2 teams in the NL last year:

Obviously we can’t expect these pitchers to perfectly match their 2008 performance. However, coupled with an improved bullpen and one of the top offenses in the league, the 2009 Mets would look pretty strong with this rotation.

Thanks to BtB for the FIP+ numbers.

Links: Citi Field, Derek Lowe, Will Ohman and Rickey Henderson!

2009-01-07T19:09:00.010-05:00

Here's some links to peruse while you ponder why Rickey Henderson's helmet always looked 3 sizes too small:

1) Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue takes a look at how pitcher-friendly Citi Field will be. He interviews Greg Rybarczyk of the excellent home run tracking site Hit Tracker Online, who summed up his take on Citi Field in the Hardball Times Annual 2009 by writing:

"Citi Field, the new ballpark for the New York Mets, is poised to become MLB's new Grand Canyon." - YIKES!

2) Matt Cerrone at MetsBlog reports that today's meeting between Omar Minaya and Scott Boras (agent for Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, and Manny Ramirez) went well. Apparently, they only discussed Lowe and it looks like it will take some kind of 4th year option to secure the tall sinkerballer.
***EDIT***: Anthony DiComo of mlb.com now says Minaya spoke with Boras about Lowe, Perez, and Ramirez. Maybe a package deal for all 3?

3) David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via MLBTradeRumors) writes that free agent lefty reliever Will Ohman prefers to stay with the Braves "if offers are equal, etc." . This is code for "I'll sign wherever the money is." Last week I wrote at Mets Geek that the Mets need to sign another lefty reliever, just in case Pedro Feliciano gets hurt or is ineffective. Ohman is my top choice, especially because he's not just a lefty specialist - he held righties to a .700 OPS against in 2008.

4) Atleast one Hall of Fame voter left Rickey Henderson off of his ballot. This is sheer lunacy - even the biggest haters have to admit that Rickey is a no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Famer. Check out Home Run Derby's compilation of the published HOF votes by sportswriters across the country. It's a quick and easy way to see which voters have a brain and which don't. Hint: anyone who votes for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven is brainless.

Mets Geek column: Mets-Jets parallels

2009-01-06T12:59:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I find some parallels between the 2008 Mets and Jets seasons. Here's a snippet:

"Mets: Johan Santana
Jets: Brett Favre (from Week 1 through Week 12)

Both of these superstars came to New York from midwestern teams with significant hype and expectations. Santana was brilliant from Opening Day through game 161. Despite a slight decline in his strikeout and walk rates, he was one of the top two best pitchers in the league along with Tim Lincecum. Favre was an MVP candidate through week 12, as he racked up 20 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. From that point onward, he became the Jets equivalent of Aaron Heilman, Luis Ayala and Scott Schoeneweis rolled into one.

Mets: The bullpen
Jets: Brett Favre (from Week 13 through Week 17)

The Mets bullpen wasn’t the only culprit in late 2008, but it was the biggest. The same can arguably be said of Favre. Yes, the Jets coaching staff made some odd play-calls and the dominant offensive line may have lost a step late in the season, but it’s tough to stay competitive when the quarterback is throwing pick after pick (nine interceptions in the final five games). Omar Minaya has blown up the Mets bullpen this offseason, but it remains to be seen whether or not Brett Favre will be back in 2009. Hopefully he’ll make a quick and definite decision to retire to the quiet life in Mississippi."

Burrell and Bradley sign: How will this affect the Mets?

2009-01-05T20:25:00.007-05:00

Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley signed contracts today with the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs, respectively. Why should Met fans care? Because these signings, along with the previous Raul Ibanez signing by the Phillies, will affect the Mets pursuit of an upgrade in LF. The major options left on the market are Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez. Let's compare these 6 players based on what they're worth and what some of them have already signed for. The column "WV $ in '08" is how much each player was worth in 2008 based on the win value system at FanGraphs. The column "BtB $ Value" is how much Beyond the Boxscore valued the player at heading into free agency. Neither of these measures is 100% infallible, but they're pretty good for our purposes:

It looks like Burrell and Bradley were signed for less than what they're actually worth. Bradley is a perpetual injury risk (he's played more than 101 games just twice in the last 7 years) and head case, but when he plays he can dominate (163 OPS+ in 2008). The Ibanez contract is at best a fair contract. Though it looks worse and worse after the bargain signings of Burrell and Bradley.

Considering these facts, it appears the Mets are in the driver's seat should they decide to pursue a defensive challenged LF. Could Dunn be had for 2-3 years and $8-9 million per? How about Abreu for 1 year, $7 million? Ramirez already turned down a 2 year, $45 million offer from the Dodgers, so I'm pretty sure he can't be had at a discount. Another option that several other Met fans have kicked around is Rocco Baldelli. He's a right-handed hitter with some medical/injury problems, but might be worth a risk for 1 year and $3 million or so. Plus Rocco seems to have a decent understanding of statistics, which is a plus in my book. I'd love to have Dunn playing LF in 2009 and then 1B in 2010, as I've covered over and over and over again. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Omar Minaya and the Mets have any interest.

Free agent market should pick up

2009-01-05T12:42:00.003-05:00

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors foresees a busy week of free agent signings, as over 150 players are still currently unsigned. Pitchers and catchers can report on February 14th, so Tim is probably right. Many of these players will have contracts before then. Here is a partial list of players I think the Mets will atleast consider signing:

Starting Pitcher
Jon Garland
Derek Lowe
Odalis Perez
Oliver Perez
Tim Redding
Ben Sheets
John Smoltz
Randy Wolf

Relief Pitcher
Joe Beimel
Juan Cruz
Eddie Guardado
Will Ohman
Dennys Reyes
Brian Shouse

Infield
Joey Cora
Mark Grudzielanek
Orlando Hudson
Ty Wigginton

Outfield
Bobby Abreu
Rocco Baldelli
Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Manny Ramirez

Ken Davidoff's Hall of Fame Ballot - Brilliant!

2009-01-03T14:50:00.015-05:00

Newsday's Ken Davidoff is one of my favorite baseball writers because his work incorporates advanced baseball statistics in such a way that the casual fan can understand and appreciate them. In this manner, he is similar to Joe Posnanski. He keeps an open mind about new ways to evaluate players, unlike the stubborn and close-minded Jon Heyman and Bill Conlin. Davidoff posted his 2009 Hall of Fame ballot and I could not be happier with it. It's nearly identical to mine. He's voting for:

- Bert Blyleven
- Rickey Henderson
- Tim Raines
- Alan Trammell

I'd add Mark McGwire but will not shed a tear if McGwire never makes the HOF. Davidoff's ballot is noteworthy because in past years he voted for Jack Morris and Jim Rice. He correctly removed them this year because in the last 12 months Davidoff gained an understanding of higher-level stats like OPS+ and ERA+. Basically, he took the time to learn about and embrace these better stats rather than stubbornly sticking with RBI, batting average, W-L records and unproveable assertions about players being "most feared" or "most dominant". Bravo Ken Davidoff - the world of baseball journalism needs more writers like yourself.

Top 10: Worst Mets losses in 2008

2009-01-02T16:17:00.005-05:00

On this gloomy Friday I present the Daily News list of the top 10 worst Mets losses in 2008. Surprisingly the list made me laugh more than it upset me. I attended #7 (1-0 loss to the Nats on May 15), which saw Mike Pelfrey throw 6 no-hit innings and ended in a Carlos Delgado double play line-out. Whatever - it's a new year, new season and I'm confident the Mets will be better in 2009.

The last week or so has seen an explosion of support for signing Manny Ramirez. There's even an online petition to sign him. I've already covered Manny here, so I'll just sum up my stance on him. He is still an outstanding right-handed hitter, but is a total butcher in the field. He's worth about $17-18 million but is looking for $23-25 million (he turned down 2 years, $45 million from the Dodgers). I'm all for the Mets signing him, provided they:

a) Sign Derek Lowe/Ben Sheets first
b) Can get Manny for 2-3 years, $18-19 million a year (highly unlikely)
c) Do not give him a final year option so he can pull the same crap again as he did in '08

Bottom line - Manny is a $25 million hitter but an $18 million player.

Projected Mets 2009 Roster

2009-01-01T13:41:00.009-05:00

I've updated my projected Mets roster about once a month this offseason, so here is where it stands on January 1st. Remember this is what I think the Mets 2009 roster will look like - not what I want it to look like.

Rotation (5)
1 - Johan Santana
2 - Oliver Perez
3 - Mike Pelfrey
4 - John Maine
5 - Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Bullpen (7)
CL - Francisco Rodriguez
J.J. Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Duaner Sanchez
Tim Redding/Freddy Garcia

Starting Lineup (8)
Jose Reyes, SS
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Bobby Abreu, LF
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Luis Castillo, 2B

Bench (5)
Daniel Murphy, OF/2B
Jeremy Reed, OF
Ramon Castro, C
Fernando Tatis, OF/1B/3B
Alex Cora, 2B/SS

Total Payroll: $145-150 million

Keep in mind the payroll figure includes $$ owed Billy Wagner, Marlon Anderson and Scott Schoeneweis. Payroll in 2008 was around $140 million.

Mets Geek column: Adding another lefty to the bullpen

2008-12-30T20:08:00.004-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I advocate signing another lefty to complement Pedro Feliciano in the bullpen. Joe Beimel, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes and even Brian Fuentes are free agent options.

In other news, these Andruw Jones rumors are pretty silly. The guy is done as a player and I don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to trade for him, even if he can unload Luis Castillo. Happy new year everybody!

Brad Penny to the Red Sox: Mets have clear path to Derek Lowe

2008-12-29T10:01:00.005-05:00

Sean McAdam of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox have signed RHP Brad Penny:

Penny’s deal, which will be finalized tomorrow pending a physical exam and completion of contractual language, will pay the 30-year-old a base salary of $5 million. The deal has the potential to pay Penny $3 million more in bonuses, beginning with a 160-innings-pitched threshold and escalating from there.

This is great news for the Mets' pursuit of Derek Lowe, as the Red Sox now have 5 starting pitchers on their roster (Penny, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester). The possibility remains that the Sox will go after Lowe and move Wakefield to the bullpen but that seems unlikely at this point. Any remaining suitor for Lowe will not have the financial resources the Mets do, so the Mets should be able to match or beat any other teams' offer. Get us Lowe, get us Lowe, get us Lowe.

How much were Mets hitters worth in 2008?

2008-12-26T17:52:00.017-05:00

Fangraphs added a new section to it's already vast library of stats which calculates players' win values. This is better than any Christmas gift I got this year. Value wins measure how many wins a player contributes to his team, factoring offense, defense and positional adjustments. Read here and here for more. Additionally, Fangraphs provides how much each player was worth in millions of $$ based on the stat. Let's take a look at the Mets hitters' win values, $$ value based on win values and actual salaries, minimum 100 PA's (each win is worth about $4.5 million; actual salaries courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts):

Let's summarize:
1) David Wright and Jose Reyes are awesome. These guys were worth A-Rod money in 2008. Their contracts should continue to be huge discounts for the Mets in the foreseeable future.
2) Carlos Delgado finishing ahead of Carlos Beltran and Reyes in the NL MVP voting is a joke. But we knew that already. WAR factors defense and positional adjustments, which is why Delgado does not have a strong showing here.
3) Damion Easley was basically a replacement-level player in 2008.
4) Brian Schneider is no Joe Mauer, but his contract isn't bad.
5) Marlon Anderson sucks.
6) The Mets don't have too many bad contracts, for their hitters atleast. Omar Minaya is a smart GM, in my humble opinion. Compare to the Yankees WAR page - many of their contracts were poor (see Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Ivan Rodriguez, Melky Cabrera).

I'll continue to explore this win value stuff, which isn't too complicated once you understand it. It took some time to grasp the concepts but it's worth the effort. Remember that this is not the end-all-be-all measure of a player's worth but it's pretty high-level.

Mets Geek column: Mets Holiday Carols

2008-12-24T03:13:00.003-05:00

Check out my latest Mets Geek column, where I present some new holiday carols with a Mets theme. The songs are:

1) "Jerry 'The Gangster' Manuel" (set to "Rudolph the Red-Nose Reindeer")
2) "J.J. Putz Rocks" (set to "Jingle Bell Rock")
3) "Get Us Lowe" (set to "Let It Snow")

Mull over Barry Bonds during the holiday, and let's hope Omar Minaya can indeed get us Derek Lowe.

What's Barry Bonds up to?....

2008-12-23T19:54:00.013-05:00

***Disclaimer***: Before I go any further, let me say I am not (yet) advocating the signing of Barry Bonds. I am merely taking a look at how viable an option he would be for the 2009 Mets.

Last week, espn.com reported that Barry Bonds may still be seeking employment:

"I'm not retiring," Bonds said Saturday night. "I'm not retiring."

Say what you want about the guy, but the last season he played (2007) was truly awesome. Just look at these numbers for Bonds, who finished the season at age 43:

He finished 6th in baseball in wOBA and 1st in the NL in OPS+ (for players with 400+ PA's), and yet no team was willing to sign him. I find this strange. Yes, he's one of the top villians in baseball for various reasons, most of them justified. His placement on a team instantly increases media scrutiny and ESPN's Pedro Gomez is dispatched to follow his every move. He's a pain in the ass. But is the headache of Bonds's presence that much worse than the circus following Manny Ramirez? I say no. Did Bonds use PED's? Almost certainly. But so did Paul LoDuca, Todd Hundley and Lenny Dykstra, players who are generally well regarded by Met fans.

After a year away from the game, 44 year-old Bonds would probably not put up the same numbers as he did in 2007. But is it that far off to think he could produce at a .250/.390/.480 clip? His defense in '07 wasn't as bad as I expected. Bad, but not any worse than Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn. It too would worsen obviously, but to what extent? Would Bonds consider a 1-year, $6-7 million contract? There is a Marcel projection for Bonds in 2009, and it is not very optimistic about his chances of playing much - 248 PA's, 11 HR, .887 OPS. Also, he's solid vs. LHP: .985 OPS for his career, .991 in 2007.

There is basically a 0.01% chance the Mets sign Barry Bonds. It's barely even worth discussing. But 400 PA's from Bonds in LF in 2009 could be of some value to a team - and it wouldn't require a 3 year, $30+ million commitment.

***EDIT***: An interesting read today by Jack Marshall at The Hardball Times (via Rob Neyer), where he discusses the ethical implications of signing Bonds. He writes:

Are baseball commentators really so disconnected from the ethical imperatives of the game? Do they really not grasp what signing Barry Bonds, for any amount of money or no amount at all, would have meant?... But just as, in Sir Thomas More’s words, "it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world," signing Bonds in order to make the playoffs would have been a dubious and foolish deal for any team, even if one buys the questionable assumption that he would have played well enough to hold up his end of it.

I have no problem with the belief that signing Bonds is unethical because he is a cheat. A person is entitled to their opinion in this matter. My problem is this:

A team could employ one of the many mediocre, borderline or journeyman players whose names appeared in the Mitchell Report without making the implied statement that it was endorsing and rewarding a cheat. Signing Brendan Donnelly, Paul Lo Duca or Paul Byrd would not be seen as an enlistment in the Dark Side..Bonds was a different matter entirely, if for no other reason than he had ridden performance enhancement drugs to the pinnacle of baseball’s records.

Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems like he says it's OK to sign Lo Duca or Byrd because they're mediocre players, but it's not OK to sign Bonds because he is one of the best players ever. I'm not an ethicist but this doesn't make sense to me. If you are against signing Barry Bonds because he is a cheater, that's fine with me. But don't simultaneously be OK with signing Lo Duca, Donnelly or Byrd. This is not ethics - it's hypocrisy.

'Til I Collapse: A summary of my last 15 months of fan-dom

2008-12-22T22:56:00.004-05:00

I am a fan of the New York Mets, New York Jets and Georgetown Hoyas. The last 15 months or so haven't been very kind to my 3 teams. A quick summary:

1) 2007 Mets: 14-14 Sept. record, epic collapse
2008 Mets: 13-12 Sept. record, semi-epic collapse

2) 2008 Jets: 8-3 record to 9-6 record; playoffs unlikely

3) 2007-2008 Hoyas: #2 seed in NCAA tournament - upset in 2nd round by Stephen Curry's #10 seed Davidson Wildcats

No real point to this post, just a chance to reflect on how disappointing my favorite teams have been of late. I guess it's not too bad, considering the 2006 Mets made the playoffs and 2006-2007 Hoyas made the Final Four. But still, what a brutal 15 month stretch.

Mystery pitchers A, B, C & D

2008-12-21T09:27:00.017-05:00

I got this idea from Dave at MetsGeek: I will present the 2008 statistics of 4 mystery starting pitchers who I think are similar in terms of the quality of innings they provide. A couple hints:
a) 3 of the 4 are free agents
b) 1 is reportedly available via trade
c) 1 is a Type A free agent and 1 is a Type B free agent
That's all the info I'll provide, so let's see how the 4 stacked up in 2008:

To summarize, these pitchers did not perform all that differently in 2008. Pitchers A and B tossed the most innings, Pitcher C gave up HR's at the lowest rate and Pitcher D gave up home runs at the highest rate. Now to reveal the mystery pitchers:

Pitcher A = Jon Garland, a 29 year-old Type B free agent I've covered here. He made $12 million in 2008 and will likely require a 2 year, $20-22 million commitment.

Pitcher B = Oliver Perez, a 27 year-old Type A lefty we're all familiar with. He made $6.5 million in 2008, is asking 5 years, $70 million (fat chance) and will likely require 4 years, $44-48 million.

Pitcher C = Jason Marquis, a 30 year-old available via trade who made $6.4 million in 2008 and is set to make $9.9 million in 2009.

Pitcher D = Tim Redding, a 31 year-old I've covered here. He made $1 million in 2008 and will probably require a 2 year, $7-8 million commitment.

There are other factors to consider here obviously (age of pitchers, career track record, lefty/righty, etc.), but the point is I think it would be a big mistake to sign Ollie or Garland when a guy like Redding is available. Redding is a step down from Ollie, but it is a small step. I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Marquis, provided the Cubs eat some salary. A Redding or Marquis acquisition should be coupled with a Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets signing. Ollie isn't worth more than $6 million a year.

A David Wright celebration

2008-12-20T12:21:00.003-05:00

Happy 26th birthday to David Wright, one of the top 5 position players in baseball. I present a few of my favorite David related columns/links from the last few months:

1) This column from SNY's Ted Berg which tells us that:

"Wright is the Mets' rock, the core of their core, a recognizable All-Star and one of the best players in the game. "

Core of the core. I like that.

2) Mets Geek's Pat Andriola wishes Met fans realized just how good Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are in this column:

"We should applaud Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for their fantastic seasons, not whine that they should have done more."

3) Lastly, a post I made back in September about the myth of long-term clutch-hitting ability and how David should be just fine hitting w/RISP in the future:

"The next time you hear Mike Francesca or some other windbag screaming about how the Mets should trade Wright or Jose Reyes because they are not "clutch", simply re-read this post and remind yourself how ridiculous they sound."

5th starter option: Tim Redding

2008-12-18T20:33:00.007-05:00

The Nationals non-tendered right-handed starting pitcher Tim Redding, and a report from the Denver Post says the Mets have shown some interest. I say go for it. Ideally, the Mets will sign Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets (or even Randy Wolf), and the #5 spot in the rotation will be up for grabs. Jon Niese and Brandon Knight are options from within the organization, but I would prefer the Mets sign a guy like Redding or Odalis Perez to compete for and hopefully win the job. Let's look at Redding:

Redding gets knocked around a bit, evidenced by his HR/9 and LD%. However, his FIP is just fine for a #5 starter. If he could have a performance identical to 2008 next season, Redding would be a nice pickup. I don't anticipate a big-time bidding war for his services, so maybe a 1 year deal for $3-4 million could secure him.

***EDIT***: For more on Redding, check out this FanGraphs post by Eric Seidman. Eric puts Redding's fair market value at $6.5 million. He'll likely end up signing for less.

Home-grown Mets vs. acquired Mets

2008-12-18T10:23:00.006-05:00

Check out this awesome comparison at Sully Baseball of the best home grown Mets players and acquired players (via MetsBlog). It's pretty outstanding, and "Sully" includes a picture of each player on the teams. Sully is doing the same comparison for every team in baseball during this offseason.

After last week's fireworks, the Mets offseason activity is at a standstill. I don't expect things to pick up again until after Christmas. Hopefully Omar Minaya can give the people what they want: Derek Lowe.

In the meantime, enjoy this terrific picture of Mike Pelfrey dressed as Santa Claus.

Mets Geek column: All-Time Mets Roster

2008-12-16T19:42:00.005-05:00

Click here for my weekly Mets Geek column, where I picked the best players to wear a Mets uniform. This was NOT a list of the best players in Mets history, but rather a list of players who played for the Mets at one time or another that had the best overall careers. This is why Willie Mays, Duke Snider, and Nolan Ryan (who played for the Mets but undoubtedly had their finest seasons elsewhere) made the cut. I thought it would be fun and debate provoking (i.e. Who was better: Yogi Berra or Mike Piazza?), but it wasn't too well received by the faithful MetsGeek readers. Anyways, here is the full column, reprinted to reflect changes I've made after reading some of the few intelligent comments on the MetsGeek site:

Tom Seaver’s number 41 is the only retired Mets player number, which is surprising for a team that’s been in existence since 1962. The Tampa Bay Rays have been around since 1998 and have retired a number: Wade Boggs’ 12. However, this does not mean the Mets haven’t had some truly great players don the orange and blue over the years. With the help of the great website Ultimate Mets Database, I compiled the all-time Mets roster, composed of the best players to don a Mets uniform. These players may not have had their best years in Flushing (just imagine if they had), but they are the all-time greats to play there, regardless of their actual level of play as a Met. Included on this roster are seven Hall of Famers and three likely future Hall of Famers. The years each player played for the Mets are listed as well.

Rotation
Tom Seaver (1967-1977, 1983)
Nolan Ryan (1966, 1968-1971)
Warren Spahn (1965)
Tom Glavine (2003-2007)
Pedro Martinez (2005-2008)
Honorable Mention: Jerry Koosman, Bret Saberhagen, Dwight Gooden, Johan Santana, David Cone
Seaver, Ryan, Spahn and Martinez are four of the greatest pitchers of all time. As dominant as Ryan was, I think his ridiculously high walk totals would’ve driven me nuts, had I been alive to watch him in his prime. Ryan walked 100+ batters in a season 11 times. Compare that to Seaver who never walked more than 89 in a season. I’m still amazed by the fact that Saberhagen walked just 13 batters in 177.1 IP for the Mets in 1994. Santana might eventually supplant Glavine in this rotation.

Bullpen
Rick Aguilera (1985-1989)
Armando Benitez (1999-2003)
John Franco (1990-2001, 2003-2004)
Jason Isringhausen (1995-1997, 1999)
Tug McGraw (1965-1967, 1969-1974)
Jesse Orosco (1979, 1981-1987)
Billy Wagner (2006-2008)
Honorable Mention: Jeff Reardon, Mike Stanton, Roger McDowell, Mike Marshall, Randy Myers
This was the toughest group to decide, as all of the honorably mentioned players have a strong case. I may be biased towards the more recent pitchers, but keep in mind starters threw a lot more complete games and relievers weren’t used as much in the Mets’ early days. Marshall appeared in a record 106 games and threw 208.1 highly effective innings out of the bullpen for the Dodgers in 1974. Add that to the list of records that will likely never be broken.

Catcher
Yogi Berra (1965)
Honorable Mention: Mike Piazza, Gary Carter
Piazza and Berra are interchangeable here, but I went with Berra because he was probably better than Piazza defensively. His endless list of great quotes adds to his value as well. Berra was no slouch offensively either, and he finished in the top-four in MVP voting each year from 1950-1956. His Mets career consisted of four games and nine plate appearances, but he coached for or managed the team from 1965-1975.

First Base
Eddie Murray (1992-1993)
Honorable Mention: Carlos Delgado, Keith Hernandez, Gil Hodges
Murray is the second-best switch-hitter of all time (Mickey Mantle is first) and still had some pop left in his bat when he came to the Mets in 1992 at age 36. Hernandez is one of the best defensive first baseman ever, and I think if he hit some more home runs his Hall of Fame case might have been stronger.

Second Base
Jeff Kent (1992-1996)
Honorable Mention: Roberto Alomar, Edgardo Alfonzo
I think Kent is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and the only thing that hurts his case is his prickly personality. Who knew in 1996 that he would eventually set the record for most home runs by a second baseman? Kent was a late bloomer, and continued to be a productive hitter even through his 40th birthday. Just reading Alomar’s name makes me cringe, as I am reminded of those painful 2002-2003 Mets seasons. However he is a very close 2nd here, and on any given day I'd put him above Kent.

Shortstop
Tony Fernandez (1993)
Honorable Mention: Jose Reyes, Bud Harrelson, Mike Bordick
Definitely the weakest position on this list, Reyes will probably replace Fernandez with about two more seasons like he had in 2008. How different is the game today? Harrelson slugged .288 in his career and managed to keep his starting job during most of it.

Third Base
Robin Ventura (1999-2001)
Honorable Mention: David Wright, Howard Johnson, Bobby Bonilla
There have been 138 third basemen in Mets history, but all four listed here made their name playing in the last 25 years. Baseball lifer Don Zimmer was the first, starting at third for the 1962 Mets on opening day. Zim put up a hilarious .077/.127/.096 line in 55 plate appearances that season. Give Wright four more seasons and he will be the greatest hitter in Mets history.

Outfield
Willie Mays (1972-1973)
Duke Snider (1963)
Rickey Henderson (1999-2000)
Honorable Mention: Darryl Strawberry, Cleon Jones, Moises Alou, Carlos Beltran, George Foster, Lenny Dykstra
Mays, Snider, and Henderson all had some of their best seasons playing in New York – just not with the Mets. Mays’s number 24 remains unofficially retired to this day, although Henderson wore it during his rocky stints in Flushing.

Please share if you think any player has been omitted, and hopefully one day the Mets come to their senses and retire 17 and 31.

Derek Lowe updates

2008-12-15T22:44:00.004-05:00

Check out this column from Bryan Hoch at mlb.com, which speculates that the Red Sox and Mets are the remaining top contenders in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes. Lowe is one another one of my offseason obsessions, and I feel the need to comment on a couple quotes from this column. First up:

"The Red Sox may take a closer look, however, if the price tag comes down to the arena of four years and $52 million. Those figures may also interest the Mets..."

Holy schnikes, if Lowe can be had for 4 years and $60 million or less the Mets must-must-must sign him. I'd pay even more for him, but I can't see the Mets ponying up much more than $60 million. Why do I have this awful feeling that Oliver Perez will be signed for like 4 years, $48 million and Lowe will end up in Boston for 4 years, $56 million? Next quote:

"'With me, it's all about winning,' Lowe said. 'The team with the best chance of winning, year in and year out, is where I want to go. Scott [Boras] understands that. I've already had clubs contact us that are interested, but they're not ready to win. Scott knows that's my No. 1 priority, and he's looking out for my best interest. He's done exactly what I've been talking about.'"

Really Derek? I know this is what athletes are programmed to say, but just cool it with remarks like this. Your agent is Scott Boras, comparer of Ollie Perez to Sandy Koufax. If Lowe doesn't sign with the Mets, I'd love to see a "team with the best chance of winning" like the Orioles or Nationals get him. Best post ever... good night.

Bullpen firing squad continues: Scott Schoeneweis traded

2008-12-15T20:18:00.003-05:00

I'm a couple days late to this trade as I spent the weekend in D.C. watching my Hoyas beat Memphis in an overtime thriller. The post-game celebration is still a little hazy...

Anyways, Scott "The Big Show" Schoeneweis has been spared the embarrassment of being booed on opening day during pre-game intros in 2009. He was traded to Arizona for 27-year old RHP Connor Robertson. Whatever. This was the latest in Omar Minaya's bullpen house-cleaning, as Schoeneweis, Aaron Heilman, and Joe Smith have been shipped out in the last week. Schow had a terrible 2007, an OK 2008, and was always useful vs. lefties. Pedro Feliciano is the last lefty in the 'pen, and I think he's safe. Check out Metstradamus for a nice picture of Omar and his bullpen.

Schoeneweis kind of looks like Tony Romo. Robertson has minimal major league experience, but has a 3.33 ERA in 300 minor league innings. His minor league K/9 is 11.31(!!) and K/BB is an excellent 3.12. However, he only throws in the high 80's so who knows if his ridiculous strikeout ability will ever translate to the majors. The Mets cut some salary here so the trade is fine with me. I'd like to see another lefty added to the 'pen (Joe Beimel? Dennys Reyes?).

The nightmare is over!!! Phillies sign Raul Ibanez

2008-12-12T09:04:00.004-05:00

The Phillies have supposedly signed OF Raul Ibanez to a 3 year, $30 million contract. I couldn't be happier, as the Mets will not be able to sign him and give up another draft pick. I previously wrote that Ibanez is basically an older and left-handed hitting Pat Burrell, so the Phillies lineup should be about the same.

Omar Minaya recently said:

"Before I start moving my dollars to offense, I've got to move my dollars to pitching."

I agree with his thinking, and let's hope this rumored trade for #5 starter and innings eater Jason Marquis is coupled with a free agent signing of Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe. Unlikely, but if Omar acquires Marquis he absolutely must also get a top-of-the-line starter. Marquis and Jon Niese will not cut it at the back of the rotation.

Breaking down the J.J. Putz trade

2008-12-11T20:11:00.013-05:00

I like the acquisition of J.J. Putz. I look forward to Jerry Manuel using him as a “relief ace”, coming in to pitch in high leverage situations no matter if it’s the 6th or 9th inning. Games are shortened to 7 innings with Putz and K-Rod. Let’s hope they both stay healthy. The trade can be broken up into 3 parts, listed below:

Gave up: Endy Chavez (OF), age 31
Received: Jeremy Reed (OF), age 27

They are similar hitters and Reed is younger. Note that Reed played mostly CF entirely in 2008, while Endy played mostly corner OF positions. Reed is a serviceable defensive player and posted a 13.2 UZR in 2005 playing CF exclusively. He seems to have regressed since. Reed was once a highly regarded prospect and had great minor league success. It hasn't translated to the major league level after 1100+ PA's, so I don't think he's going to "figure it out" all of a sudden. This is the one part of the trade I don’t like, as Endy is more valuable both for sentimental reasons and, more importantly, his on-field contribution.

Gave up: Joe Smith (P), age 25
Received: Sean Green (P), age 30

It’s pretty amazing how similar these 2 are, outside of age. Green has held righties to a .683 OPS against in his career – Smith, .643. Both struggle against lefties. I like Smith and am sad to see him go, but this part of the trade is a wash. Green = Smith.

Gave up: Aaron Heilman (P) age 30, Mike Carp (1B) age 22, Jason Vargas (P) age 26, Ezequiel Carrera (OF) age 21, Maikel Cleto (P) age 19
Received: J.J. Putz (P), age 32

If Putz is healthy, this is a decent but not great trade for the Mets. The 2006-2007 version of Putz was one of the best relievers in baseball, if not the best. Strikeout ability is something the Mets bullpen has lacked the last couple years (outside of Billy Wagner). Putz is owed $5 million in 2009 and has a club option for $8.6 million in 2010. Hopefully he’s not too disgruntled about being a setup man, which I’m assuming is the plan at this point. I don’t know much about the minor leaguers to comment, but hopefully Carp gets a shot to play in Seattle. Heilman will probably be a starter, and I would love to him start 30+ games and have success. The Mets win this part of the trade, assuming Putz is healthy and dominant. Otherwise, it's a lot of players to give up for a setup man.

To sum up, I love having Putz in the bullpen, and I like this trade. If they could’ve kept Endy I’d like it more.

It Putz the lotion in the basket

2008-12-11T07:09:00.005-05:00

Welcome to New York, J.J. Putz. In case you missed it, the Mets traded Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Joe Smith, and minor leaguers Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera for J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed. The Indians were also involved, as they received Luis Valbuena and gave up Franklin Gutierrez to the Mariners. Click here for the whole trade.

My gut reaction is that it's a good trade that improves the Mets right now. If healthy, Putz is dominant. He and K-Rod would form the best 1-2 punch out of the 'pen in baseball. I also love the idea of Putz being utilized as a "relief ace", coming in to pitch during high leverage situations, no matter if it's the 6th or 9th inning. The 2007-2008 Mets lacked that pre-9th inning guy. However, the Mets gave up 7 players and got 3 in return, 1 of whom (Reed) I don't think is good enough to be on the Opening Day roster. I'll break the trade down later in more detail.

Omar Minaya covered his ass - now no one can say he didn't try to improve the bullpen.

Winter Meetings Day 3 roundup

2008-12-10T20:18:00.005-05:00

Wednesday's Mets developments from the Bellagio:

1) "The Mets are looking at the Pirates' Matt Capps"

Capps is a 25 year-old, low 90's throwing reliever. In 217.1 career IP, he he's posted a 3.58 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. He is a stud. The Pirates will not trade him for cheap, meaning the classic "lets trade Aaron Heilman for him" is not going to cut it. I would love to see him as a Met, but it won't come cheap.

2) "The Mets were rebuffed in their attempt to trade Aaron Heilman to the Rockies for righty Huston Street"

Like Capps, I would love to see Street in a Mets uniform next year. Also like Capps, he will not come cheap. Street is death to right-handed hitters, but has also held lefties to a .710 OPS against in his career.

3) "The Mets have shown interest in trading for Juan Pierre"

This is preposterous. I'm guessing the Mets would trade Luis Castillo, who is like 10% the headache Pierre is considering their contracts. Pierre's OBP was .327 and OPS+ was 73 (as a corner OF!!!) in 2008. On top of that, his defense is slightly above average at best. He is owed an average of $9.5 million over the next 3 seasons. Stay away from Pierre.

4) "John Smoltz wants to pitch for a team that could take him to the World Series... the free agent is considering the New York Mets" amongst other teams including the Braves and Red Sox

I'd welcome Smoltz with open arms. I'm guessing he'd only get a 1-year deal considering his injury history and age, and that's fine. Smoltz was dominate in 2007 (3.21 FIP in 205.2 IP), and would be the Mets' #2 pitcher at this point if healthy.

5) "The Mets have a meeting scheduled Wednesday afternoon with Scott Boras to discuss both Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez. They also plan to meet with the agents for Randy Wolf and Jon Garland."

This is a step in the right direction, as it is the first I've read of the Mets aggressively working to sign a starting pitcher. The Yankees supposedly offered Lowe 4 years, $66 million, which is probably a slight bargain. I'd go as high as 4 years, $70-72 million for him. Perez isn't worth more than $6 million a year or so. I like Wolf as well, but would only be happy with signing Garland if Lowe, Ben Sheets, or Wolf are signed first.

6) "The Mets and the Seattle Mariners are in serious discussions on a trade that would bring Seattle closer J.J. Putz to the Mets in exchange for reliever Aaron Heilman and minor-league first baseman Mike Carp"

I like this trade. It seems like Heilman will be inevitably be traded, and I don't foresee Carp getting a shot at the big league level despite his minor league success. Putz is owed $5 million in 2009 and has an $8.6 million club option in 2010. His 2008 season was a little disappointing after a dominant 2007, but his career K/BB is an outstanding 3.24 and he throws 95 mph.

Winter Meetings Day 2, featuring K-ROD

2008-12-09T20:22:00.005-05:00

Today's developments from the Winter Meetings at the Bellagio:

1) "The New York Mets have reached an agreement in principle with All-Star closer Francisco Rodriguez on a three-year, $37 million contract. The deal includes a $14 million vesting option for a fourth year that would raise the total value of the contract to $51 million."

Eh. The Mets get a proven closer and they do it early this offseason. I hate the 4th year vesting option - that's just too much $$ for a closer. FanGraphs is mixed on the signing but Beyond the Boxscore likes it. Omar Minaya has sent a message to the fans that he's not messing around this offseason with the bullpen, and I guess like that. But Omar - your job is far from over.

2) "The Mets inquired on [Texas Rangers SS] Michael Young"

No, thank you. Young is a 32 and owed a mind-boggling $16 million a year through 2013 (and we Met fans thought the Luis Castillo contract was silly). He would play 2B, assuming Castillo is traded. Young went .284/.339/.402 in 2008, doesn't steal many bases (though his SB% is strong), and has never posted a UZR better than -3.7 since becoming a full time major leaguer. Let's forget this "inquiry" ever happened.

3) "The Philles, Mets, and Cubs appear to have separated themselves from the pack of teams pursuing outfielder Raul Ibanez."

For the one thousandth time, please no. Click here for more on why not. I honestly don't think Omar Minaya is dumb enough to sign Ibanez, but the nonstop reports of Mets interest are scary.

4) Former Mets Kris Benson and Scott Erickson are attempting comebacks

Good for them?

Mets Geek column: What to do about leftfield

2008-12-09T06:49:00.003-05:00

Check out my weekly Mets Geek column by clicking here. I weigh the current projected leftfield platoon of Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis vs. signing free agents Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez and Manny Ramirez.

In other news, the Mets are reportedly close to signing K-Rod for 3 years, $37 million with no 4th year option. Fine by me!

Opinions on today's happenings at the Winter Meetings

2008-12-08T21:13:00.009-05:00

Today is day 1 of the baseball Winter Meetings held at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. Let's run down the Mets rumors for the day and my quick thoughts on each:

1) "The Mets offered K-Rod a 2-year deal worth $12 million with a 3rd year vesting option"

I'll take K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, or dark-horse Kerry Wood (who was not offered arbitration wouldn't cost a draft pick) for a reasonable price. By reasonable I mean 3 years, $12 million or less per year. For whatever reason, Met fans seem to prefer K-Rod a heckuva lot more than Fuentes, but they're pretty much equal in actual value. Wood is a tier below these two and an injury risk.

2) "The Mets are desperate to trade Luis Castillo and sign Orlando Hudson"

I can't see any team taking Castillo in return for any worthwhile player (spare me this Jose Guillen stuff). Hudson is 31 years old and has had 2 seasons in a row end in injury. His career OPS+ is 99, and his vaunted defense might not be all it's cracked up to be (in 2008 he posted a -4 on the +/- scale, UZR of -6.1). Give Castillo another shot (shudder).

3) "The Mets have Jon Garland on their radar"

No. Just please no. Read here for more.

4) "The Red Sox are in trade discussions for Mets catcher Brian Schneider"

Whatever. The Mets could do a lot worse than Schneider and Ramon Castro at catcher. If they can get a solid prospect or 2 for Schneider, then fine, make the trade. I just don't think this should be a priority.

5) "Chad Cordero and his agent plan to meet with the Mets" and 4 other teams

Cordero is coming off a serious arm injury, which caused his fastball velocity to drop to 84 mph this season. I'd be OK with signing him, as long as it's not multi-year or too pricey. He may not even be ready for spring training. Omar Minaya loves his former Expos, so don't be surprised to see him sign with the Mets. Take a look at his medical records first, Omar.

6) "David Eckstein is drawing interest from 5 teams"

Good God, no. Luckily it doesn't specify that the Mets are one of the teams. However, for anyone who thinks Eckstein would be an upgrade over Castillo, look at the following:

Eckstein, career: .284/.351/.361
Castillo, career: .292/..367/.355

Bill James 2009 projection
Eckstein: .277/.346/.346
Castillo: .281/.362/.344

Their fielding skills are similar, and Eckstein has played 38 career games at 2B. There's no reason to get rid of Castillo only to replace him with Eckstein.

7) "Phillies enter Jake Peavy fray"

Say it ain't so. Peavy and Cole Hamels in the same rotation would be terrifying.

Don't get cheap on me Jeff Wilpon

2008-12-07T14:51:00.011-05:00

The economy sucks, and I fear that the Mets will use it as an excuse for not spending this offseason. This excuse would be unacceptable, as the Mets were 2nd in baseball in attendance and 3rd in average ticket price in 2008. They have a TV network and a brand new stadium, featuring higher ticket prices but with about 10,000 fewer seats.

The Mets 2008 payroll was about $138-140 million. By my calculation, the projected 2009 payroll based only on players currently under contract is about $100-$102 million. This includes predictions about future raises to guys like Ryan Church and Aaron Heilman, as well as money still owed Billy Wagner. This leaves, conservatively, $36 million available for spending if they wanted to simply meet 2008's payroll. The luxury tax level is $162 million for 2009.

$36 million is no small chunk of change to work with, and I think they should be able to spend maybe $45 million without significantly hurting their financial statements. (Note: I have not inspected the Mets' books, so my $45 million figure is pretty arbitrary. I do think a $148 million 2009 payroll is reasonable though.) With this assumption, I see no reason why the Mets shouldn't be able to offer the following:

- 4 years, $60 million to Derek Lowe
- 2 years, $20 million to Brian Fuentes
- 2 years, $24 million to Adam Dunn

This comes to roughly $37 million, leaving a few million for scrap heap bullpen signings as well. Lowe and Fuentes were offered arbitration so the Mets would lose 2 draft picks if both signed. However, when another team unwisely signs Oliver Perez for like 4 years and $50 million, the Mets would get 2 picks in return. Some might balk at paying Lowe $15 million a season, but even this amount might be lower than what he's actually worth. I'm all for trading for Huston Street, if possible.

The crappy economy is indeed crappy. I have witnessed it's wrath firsthand in the form of layoffs of friends and 401(k) value decreases. However, if the Mets use it as a crutch for not spending this offseason, I'm going to call B.S. To paraphrase Dennis Nedry (as played by Wayne Knight) in Jurassic Park, "Don't get cheap on me Wilpon."

Omar: Say NO to Jon Garland

2008-12-05T11:07:00.005-05:00

This is the 2nd installment in my “SAY NO” series, the first subject being Jason Varitek. Support for signing Jon Garland has been floating around, and I’m worried. Worried that Omar Minaya will sign him for like 3 years, $40 million and declare it the big off-season starting pitching acquisition. Let’s take a look at his relevant numbers:

To summarize:
a) His already underwhelming K/9 and BB/9 have worsened since his breakout season of 2005, when he posted a K/9 of 4.68 and BB/9 of 1.91.
b) His FIP is overly generous because he gets hit pretty hard. An LD% greater than 20% is generally cause for concern.
c) To his credit, he eats innings and hasn’t lost anything off of his fastball. He is just 29 years old and stands 6’6” tall. He and 6’7” Mike Pelfrey could stand next to each other and look intimidating in the back row of the team photo.

Garland is regarded as a strong pitcher mainly because of his good W-L record and World Series ring. Do not be fooled. His peripheral stats are not impressive, and they seem to be getting worse each season. I’m not saying Garland is worthless – I wouldn’t mind seeing him as the Mets 5th starter for a 1 or 2 year deal at $8 million per. This is not likely though, considering the Carlos Silva contract last offseason and Oliver Perez’s projected deal. Of course this could all be moot as Garland might accept the Angels’ arbitration offer. Omar Minaya: Just say no to Garland (at the projected 3-4 years, $12 million per year).

Rob Neyer on Dunn, Burrell, Ramirez and the importance of defense

2008-12-04T09:31:00.004-05:00

Check out this great read from Rob Neyer at espn.com, where he writes about the increasing availability of reliable defensive statistics for player evaluation. A couple snippets:

"Dunn, like Ramirez and Burrell, is a pretty lousy outfielder (though not as lousy as them, yet). All of these guys are worth a great deal of money. But while Ramirez might be a $25 million hitter, he is not a $25 million baseball player because he gives away a bunch of runs when he's in the outfield. Same goes for Burrell, a $12 million hitter but an $8 million player"

Here is my favorite line:

"According to BP, Burrell over the last two seasons has been 15 runs worse than average per season. It's such a fundamental thing but is so often ignored: all those plays lead to runs allowed, and those runs count, too. Doesn't mean he's not a good and valuable player. Does mean that if you ignore his defense when you're figuring out how much he's worth, you're going to overshoot by a big chunk of change "

The prevention of runs is just as important as the scoring of runs. It's a pretty basic concept that I think many fans (and GM's apparently) fail to grasp. Defense is a big reason why Carlos Beltran would possibly be worth about $30 million a year as a free agent this offseason. Defense is why Manny Ramirez is certainly not worth $25 million a year.

Bob Howry signs with Giants

2008-12-03T16:36:00.002-05:00

For the 2nd time in as many days, one of my player acquisition suggestions was taken by a team other than the Mets. The Giants have signed relief pitcher Bob Howry to a 1-year, $2.75 million contract. Pretty reasonable contract for both parties, all things considered. Coupled with their earlier signing of Jeremy Affeldt, the Giants have the makings of a decent bullpen.

To counter this, the Mets made an earth-shattering signing of their own: re-signing Nelson Figueroa to a minor league deal.

Javier Vazquez traded to the Braves

2008-12-03T09:00:00.003-05:00

The object of my offseason affection, Javier Vazquez, has been traded to the Braves. He will reportedly be headed to Atlanta along with lefty relief pitcher Boone Logan. It has not been confirmed which players Atlanta is sending to the White Sox, but possibilities include shortstop Brent Lillibridge, pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes and catcher Tyler Flowers. If the Braves give up Lillibridge and Reyes for Vazquez I'm going to scream - they will receive a much better deal than the White Sox. I'll hold off commenting on the trade until terms are finalized.

Scratch Vazquez off my list of potential starters for the last 2 spots in the Mets rotation. Available pitchers who I'd like to see fill the spots are:

- Derek Lowe
- Randy Wolf
- Ben Sheets
- Andy Sonnanstine
- Nate Robertson
- Odalis Perez
....and....
- Randy Johnson

Mets Geek: Mets on the 2009 Hall of Fame Ballot

2008-12-02T08:37:00.005-05:00

Check out my weekly Mets Geek column, where I make a case for the former Mets on the 2009 Hall of Fame ballot (besides 1st balloter Rickey Henderson). A couple weeks back, I posted about the former Mets who are eligible for the Hall - the actual ballot was released yesterday. Former Mets on the ballot are:

Jay Bell, SS/2B
David Cone, P
Rickey Henderson, OF
Jesse Orosco, P
Mo Vaughn, 1B

In other news, arbitration was not offered to Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, or Bobby Abreu, meaning if the Mets signed any of these players they would not forfeit draft picks. This should effectively end the Mets' interest in Raul Ibanez.

Bob Howry: A perfect fit for the Mets

2008-12-01T21:41:00.008-05:00

The Cubs declined to offer arbitration to Type A free agent reliever Bob Howry. This means any team that signs him would not have to forfeit any draft picks. On the surface, Howry is a 35 year old in the twilight of a solid career who posted a 5.35 ERA in 2008. Digging deeper, he is actually just the kind of low-cost, undervalued, potential bounce-back pitcher the Mets could use in their bullpen.

Let's look at his relevant statistics:

The reason for his poor ERA in 2008 is a combination of too many homeruns allowed and bad luck. The HR/9 is troublesome, but his HR/FB% was 3% higher than his career average. Citi Field projects as a pitcher's park, while Wrigley Field is a hitter's park, so the homers would likely decrease. His BABIP was absurdly high, especially considering his strong 17.9 LD%. I feel confident in saying that Bob Howry was quite unlucky in 2008. The average mph on his fastball dropped a tick, down to 91.2 mph from 92.3 mph in 2007. Additionally, he threw a slider 23.7% of the time, compared to just 9.7% in 2007 - perhaps this was the cause of his problems with the longball?

Not every member of a bullpen can be Francisco Rodriguez or Huston Street. Teams need low-cost guys like Howry who could bounce back to have a solid year. Look at the Phillies in recent years. They gambled on career journeyman J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey and it paid off in 2008. The same goes for the Rays with Grant Balfour, Trever Miller and J.P Howell. Check out this column by SNY's Ted Berg which further details how the playoff teams put together their strong bullpens. I'll give you a preview: they didn't do it by signing players to 4 year, $60 million deals. (side note: Berg astutely identifies Howry as an under-the-radar pickup as well, but I wasn't on board until the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration)

If the Mets sign Howry and he stinks in 2009, I'd begrudgingly admit I'm wrong. But it would likely be just a $2 million mistake, and wouldn't cost the Mets any draft picks.

Raul Ibanez: An older and left-handed version of Pat Burrell

2008-11-30T11:41:00.007-05:00

I'm a little late to the game here, as other Mets blogs have covered the Mets' strong interest in signing Raul Ibanez. The general consensus is that it really does not make sense to go after him to play LF. (Side note: About 2 months ago, I was in favor of signing him, but I changed my mind after doing some more research).

These are the facts:
1) Ibanez is 36 and bats left-handed. The Mets have a greater need for righties.
2) He's durable and consistent - put him down for 150 games and a .285/.350/.480 line.
3) He is awful defensively (4th worst LF in baseball from '06-'08)
4) Factoring offense and defense, he was the 14th best LF in baseball in 2008, behind luminaries like David Dejesus and Willie Harris.

I'm fine with the LF platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in 2009. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are free agents next off-season; wait until then to find a long term solution for the position. However, if the Mets are set on signing a poor-fielding LF for about a 3-year deal this offseason, why not go after right-handed Pat Burrell? Take a look at how they stacked up in 2008:

To recap:
1) They were almost exactly the same player, and their career numbers are very similar.
2) Burrell is younger and bats right-handed.
3) Burrell will likely be pricier, but not so much that he would break the bank.

Let me make it clear - I'm not advocating signing "Pat the Bat". I'm simply saying that if the Mets decide to sign a LF, they should go after Burrell instead of Ibanez.

Top 10: Mets named in the Mitchell Report

2008-11-28T11:55:00.006-05:00

The Mitchell Report was released in December 2007, implicating 89 current and former players who allegedly used performance enhancing drugs. It's not surprising that a fair amount of these 89 have ties to the Mets, as former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski was instrumental in the distribution of PED's to players. I present the top 10 Mets named in the Mitchell Report, based on overall career performance and performance for the Mets:

10. Guillermo Mota

Mota was phenomenal down the stretch for the 2006 Mets (18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I think we now know why - he was suspended for 50 games to start the 2007 season after testing positive for PED's.

9. Scott Schoeneweis

Current public enemy #1 or #2 for Met fans, Schoeneweis reportedly used PED's to help heal cancer. He had an awful 2007 season, but his 2008 was really not bad. He failed in a couple big spots, which is what sticks in most fans' memories. However, he was great against lefties, holding them to a .520 OPS against.

8. David Segui

Segui only played 125 games for the Mets, but enjoyed a solid 15 year career. He retired with a career OPS+ of 110, and was capable in the field.

7. Matt Franco

Along with Lenny Harris (and Marlon Anderson for 2 months in 2007), Franco is remembered as one of the best pinch-hitters in recent Mets history. He knew how to draw walks, and his OBP was usually 100 points higher than his BA. His biggest Met moment was hitting the game winning single off Mariano Rivera in a Subway Series game in 1999.

6. Todd Pratt

"Tank" was a gigantic human being, and his inclusion in the Report might explain why. He was a solid backup to Mike Piazza, and his series-ending homer against the Diamondbacks in the 1999 NLDS will never be forgotten.

5. Paul LoDuca

Loduca posted a SLG of .543 in 2001, then never produced higher than .428 after that. I'd say that's a telltale sign of PED use. I have favorable memories of LoDuca, and his 2006 was strong for a catcher. Mothers, lock up your teenage daughters when Paulie is in town...

4. Mike Stanton

For whatever reason, I had negative feelings about Stanton's performance as a Met. However, I looked up his stats and found his 2004 season in Flushing wasn't half bad. He'll be remembered for the 3 rings he won with the Yankees.

3. Mo Vaughn

I don't know what Steve Phillips was thinking when he traded for Vaughn before the 2002 season. Fat and slow first baseman do not age well, and Vaughn came to the Mets at age 34. However, from 1993-1998 he was one of the top 10 best hitters in baseball.

2. Lenny Dykstra

Dykstra was one of my favorite players, even on the Phillies. Learning of his probable PED use tarnished my image of him. I'm not old enough to have any conscious recollection of his days with the Mets, but I've watched the 1986 Mets video enough times to tell you how valuable he was to that team. His 1993 season with the Phillies was truly remarkable - .305/.420/.482 with 37 stolen bases.

1. Todd Hundley

Hundley is tied with Carlos Beltran for the club single-season HR record, with 41. The difference is, Beltran's 41 were likely hit without the aid of steroids. Hundley is a poster child of the steroid era - a light hitting catcher who all of a sudden mashes 71 homers over 2 seasons, and retires at age 34 due to injury.

Honorable Mention: Paul Byrd, Mark Carreon, Chris Donnels, Josias Manzanillo, Fernando Vina

2009 Mets offense projection

2008-11-25T19:13:00.007-05:00

The godfather of baseball statistics, Bill James, recently came out with his annual projections for major league players. The projections show up on each player's page at FanGraphs. Here is what James predicts for the Mets offense in 2009:

A few notes:
A) I included Damion Easley, despite the fact that I don't think he'll be a Met in '09. There was no projection for Argenis Reyes - I guess James realizes that he is not in the Mets' future plans. I omitted Marlon Anderson's projection as well.
B) I think Jose Reyes's projection is too low. I think Luis Castillo's is too high, but if he can produce like that in 2009, what a bonus.
C) James thinks David Wright will have another monster year, comparable to his outstanding 2007.
D) The Daniel Murphy projection is too generous. Also, I'd be very surprised if Murphy logs 456 AB's in 2009.

Is this a lazy post? Yes, but it gives us something fun to look at while no signings or trades are happening. Also, the total RsBI for these players is 770.

Mets Geek column: Available and underrated starting pitchers

2008-11-24T08:15:00.005-05:00

My weekly Mets Geek column is linked here, where I look at solid 2nd tier starting pitchers who may be available via trade or are free agents. I used the fielding independent statistic "FIP" for the basis of the analysis. No surprise that I recommend seeking a trade to acquire my favorite White Sox pitcher, Javier Vazquez.

While I'm glad Omar Minaya is being patient this offseason (compared to last year's trigger-happy Luis Castillo signing on Nov. 19), it's frustrating that nothing is happening. It's like the movie "Jarhead" - lots of waiting, not much action.

Omar: Say NO to Jason Varitek

2008-11-23T13:31:00.012-05:00

I feel the need to shoot down one Mets offseason rumor. Jon Heyman wrote in his offseason blog:

"Should the Mets find a deal for their catchers, longtime Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a free agent, could be a possibility for them. Mets GM Omar Minaya has always liked Ivan Rodriguez, but it isn't known whether they'd consider I-Rod, as well."

First off, how worthless is the sentence about Rodriguez? It adds nothing. He might as well write: "Omar Minaya has always liked sushi, but it isn't known if he'd consider it for dinner tonight." Second, if the Mets trade 32 year-old Brian Schneider or 32 year-old Ramon Castro and sign 36 year-old Jason Varitek, I might just give up. Here are some relevant stats:

There is no logical reason to do this. Schneider is set to make $5 million each of the next 2 seasons, and Castro costs $2.5 million next year. Varitek would likely cost more than that. Why trade a guy, only to replace him with a worse, more expensive player? Last time I checked, old catchers like Varitek don't often experience a career renaissance in their late 30's. The Mets got league average production from the catcher position this year. There are other areas to worry about.

Mets eligible to appear on the 2009 Hall of Fame ballot

2008-11-21T21:06:00.007-05:00

Voting results for the 2009 class of the Baseball Hall of Fame won't be released until January, but because this is a slow period in Mets-land, I took a look at former Metropolitans who are eligible this year. It turns out there are quite a few, each with a varying length of Mets tenure and impact. The full list is linked here. A screening committee weeds out guys who have no shot at induction. The final list of players on the actual ballot will be much shorter. Here are your eligible former Mets:

- Jay Bell
- Mike Bordick
- David Cone
- Rickey Henderson
- Todd Hundley
- Graeme Lloyd
- Pat Mahomes
- Jesse Orosco (still amazing how long he played for)
- Craig Paquette
- Rick Reed
- Rich Rodriguez
- Mo Vaughn

Rickey is the only one on this who is a no-doubt first balloter. I love to see the results of HOF voting, because there is always some ridiculous voter who gives the likes of Bell a vote. For instance, last year Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston and Todd Stottlemyre received votes. I'll probably post closer to the announcement of inductees regarding justification for my personal HOF ballot, but I would vote for the following players:

- Bert Blyleven
- Rickey Henderson
- Tim Raines
- Alan Trammell

The curious case of Aaron Heilman

2008-11-21T10:44:00.006-05:00

Aaron Heilman has made it clear that he wants to be a starting pitcher. I believe he has earned the chance to start, but the Mets do not see him as a starter. I fully support trading him to a team which would give him a chance to start, especially if it means getting some bullpen help in return. Today on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone writes:

"Last night on SNY’s Mets Hot Stove, SI.com’s Jon Heyman again referenced Heilman’s ‘high-back elbow,’ which Mets officials believe could lead to injury if he throws more than 100 innings in a season, similar to Mark Prior."

Heilman has had the same delivery as long as I can remember. I'm assuming he had the same delivery in college. Now take a look at his IP during the time he was a starter:

1999: 109 IP (sophomore year at Notre Dame)
2000: 103 IP (junior year)
2001: 152.1 IP (senior year and A ball)
2002: 146 IP (between AA and AAA)
2003: 159.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2004: 179.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2005: 108 IP (majors)

As far as I can tell, Heilman has never had arm trouble or made a trip to the DL. I'll accept the Mets saying they don't see him as a starter because he sucks or they don't think his stuff is conducive to starting, but please don't try to justify it by saying he'll get injured if he pitches more than 100 innings. This is an insult to Heilman. Additionally, take a look at his stats his senior year at ND:

15-0, 114 IP, 1.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB, 0.24 HR/9..... WOW.
(Note: I'm not presenting his college stats as support for his inclusion in the Mets rotation. I am just awed by those numbers)

***EDIT***: Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue pointed out that I'm wrong about Heilman's delivery never changing - good catch. His current delivery is the same as the one he used in college and the early part of his Mets career. He switched to a more over-the-top delivery in the minors, but reverted back to his college mechanics in 2005.

***EDIT #2***: I found an old scouting report on Heilman from 2002, when he had the same delivery as he does today. It's linked here. Here's what the scouts had to say about Heilman:

"Strengths: His three-quarters delivery is easy and fluid, reducing the stress on his arm, a key trait for a pitcher who will be counted upon to eat innings at higher levels."

Assuming this scouting report is accurate, Heilman's delivery would not make him an injury risk if he became a starter. I honestly don't know what Jon Heyman is talking about, and he has been peddling this "high elbow injury" story about Heilman for awhile now.

George Steinbrenner's reign ends: Costanza relieved

2008-11-21T08:30:00.004-05:00

I'm sad to see the George Steinbrenner era end, not so much because I'll miss him, but because I still miss the great caricature of him Larry David and Jerry Seinfeld created on the show "Seinfeld". He, along with Jackie Chiles, was probably my favorite minor character on the show. So I present YouTube compilations of every Steinbrenner appearance on the show. Each is 10 minutes long, FYI.

Part 1 is linked here.

Part 2 is linked here.

"We must get the calzones George!"

"You know as painful as it is I had to let a few people go over the years. Yogi Berra, Lou Pinella, Bucky Dent, Billy Martin, Dallas Green, Dick Howser, Bill Virdon, Billy Martin, Scott Marrow, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin.."

The final word on MVP voting, from the great Joe Posnanski

2008-11-19T15:13:00.006-05:00

Joe Posnanski is one of the best, if not the best, baseball writers in the country. He embraces sabermetrics and has a seemingly endless well of entertaining stories. I also link to his great blog. Today, he took a writer named Thomas Boswell from the Washington Post to task for a poorly written article which explained that Ryan Howard and not Albert Pujols was the deserving NL MVP. As most people with a brain can comprehend, Pujols was by far the most valuable player in the NL (and all of baseball) in 2008. If you have a few minutes, read Joe's blog entry linked here. I'll paste a couple of my favorite lines:

"And I know that Boz understands that Pujols is a much better player because he spends the next paragraph pointing out that, yes, Howard can’t field, and yes Pujols outhit him, and yes Howard strikes out a lot while Pujols walks a lot. He knows this to be true. But you know the Seinfeld line about how impressed he is that the Chinese are sticking with chopsticks (”Oh, they’ve seen he fork. They don’t care. They’re sticking with the chopsticks”). Well, Boz is sticking with those RBIs"

Brilliant. Another gem:

"King Kaufman over at Salon wrote something the other day that I really liked. He wrote that the methodology for some voters seems to be: “Figure out who you like as MVP, then fashion the current year’s definition of ‘valuable’ to fit.”

Also brilliant, although Joe himself didn't come up with the line.

I won't dive too deeply into specifics of this year's crop of horrible awards ballots, because it's been done ad nauseum elsewhere. Click here, here, and here if you'd like to read some well-written stuff that criticizes the voting. Suffice it to say that, for once, the voters got the award winners right.

Additionally, Check out Beyond the Boxscore's list of the top 50 position players in baseball this year, factoring in offense, defense, and position. Notice something? Howard is nowhere to be found. Wow.

***EDIT***: At Fangraphs, Check out Eric Seidman's well thought and objective (Eric is a Phillies fan) argument why Howard should not have sniffed the MVP Award this year.

Revised projected Mets 2009 roster

2008-11-18T20:43:00.010-05:00

Shortly after the Mets season ended, I posted my offseason recommendations. After thinking about it a little more, and following the offseason developments, I've come up with a revised version of my recommended roster. Here it is, keeping in mind that I think putting together this roster is feasible and fiscally reasonable:

Rotation (5)
1 - Johan Santana
2 - Derek Lowe
3 - Mike Pelfrey
4 - John Maine
5 - Jon Niese/Odalis Perez/Tim Redding

Bullpen (7)
CL - Francisco Rodriguez
J.J. Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Duaner Sanchez
Joe Beimel

Starting Lineup (8)
Jose Reyes, SS
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Fernando Tatis, LF
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Luis Castillo, 2B

Bench (5)
Daniel Murphy, LF/2B (platooned with Tatis in LF)
Jeremy Reed, OF
Ramon Castro, C
Nick Evans, OF/1B
Alex Cora/some other reserve middle IF, 2B/SS

Top 10: Best offensive seasons in Mets history

2008-11-18T09:51:00.006-05:00

Check out my latest column over at Mets Geek for my top 10 individual offensive seasons in Mets history. Darryl Strawberry's 1987 was the best in my opinion. Feel free to disagree.

In other news, thank goodness Albert Pujols won the MVP yesterday. The voters are 5 for 5 so far - AL MVP is announced today. I'm pulling for Joe Mauer, but if Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis wins I'm OK with it.