Fun with win expectancy: May 28, 2008 - Mets 7, Marlins 6

In many ways, the Mets-Marlins game on May 28, 2008 was typical of the '08 Mets. Oliver Perez struck out 7, but surrendered 3 home runs and walked 4. Jose Reyes was on base 3 out of 6 turns at-bat. In many ways, this game was not typical of the '08 Mets. Luis Castillo hit a home run (really?). Endy Chavez also went deep (to tie it in the 9th, as we can see in the graph). The bullpen gave up just 1 run in 6 innings, although that 1 was a 12th inning homer off Duaner Sanchez. What made this game stand out was Fernando Tatis's heroics in the bottom of the 12th. Down 7-6, With David Wright on 3rd and Carlos Beltran on 1st, Tatis hit a double into the leftfield corner to drive in 2 runs and win the game. This play added .54 win probability on its own, and was the first of many clutch hits Tatis would deliver in 2008. I was lucky enough to be in attendance at Shea for 3 of Tatis's 6 home field longballs, including one to tie it in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals in August. Let's hope he can keep it up in 2009, and fight the expected decline.