Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Fun with win expectancy: June 30, 2000 - Mets 11, Braves 8

A win expectancy graph is pretty self explanatory. It tells us the the probability that a team will win a game at any point in that game, based on score, innings, situation, etc. The graph above is from the Mets-Braves game on June 30, 2000 which the Mets memorably won 11-8. It was played on a Friday evening which also happened to be "Fireworks Night" at Shea Stadium. Through the first 7.5 innings it looked like only the post-game fireworks would be the only thing cheered that night. Heading into the bottom of the 8th, and the Braves ahead 8-1, the Mets win expectancy stood pretty close to zero. Then the following happened:

Derek Bell, single
Edgardo Alfonzo, flyout to CF (1 out)
Mike Piazza, single
Robin Ventura, RBI groundout (2 outs, 8-2 Braves)
Todd Zeile, RBI single (8-3 Braves)
Jay Payton, single
Benny Agbayani, walk
Mark Johnson, RBI walk (8-4 Braves)
Melvin Mora, RBI walk (8-5 Braves)
Derek Bell, RBI walk (8-6 Braves)
Edgardo Alfonzo, 2 RBI single (8-8 tied!)
Mike Piazza, 3-run home run (11-8 Mets)
Robin Ventura, groundout (end of inning, 11-8 Mets)

Other than Ventura making 2 outs in the same frame, wow, what an inning. It's pretty simple to locate the bottom of the 8th on the win expectancy graph. The Mets went from 0.5% to 96.7% in one turn at bat. I was fortunate enough to watch this game on TV in its entirety, and it's still of my favorites ever. Piazza's laser 3-run shot off Terry Mulholland must have gone out of the park in no more than 1.5 seconds. Best of all, most of the 52,000+ remained in to see it happen because they were waiting for the postgame fireworks. I'll post more win expectancy graphs (courtesy of Fangraphs) from memorable Mets games from time to time.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

i was at this game, and it was so much fun. when piazza came up we knew it was over for the braves. thanks for the memory!

Celinda said...

Fantastic!