Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The Derek Lowe fallout

Derek Lowe signed with the Braves today for 4 years, $60 million. This is bad news because:

1) Lowe was the best remaining starter on the market and I wanted the Mets to sign him.
2) He signed with the Braves, who now have the best rotation in the NL East: Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and Tim Hudson (if he returns from injury)
3) This likely drives up the price for supposed "Plan B" option, Oliver Perez. As I wrote at Mets Geek today, Lowe is far superior to Ollie. I get the feeling many Met fans think they're close in value, but they simply aren't. Seriously, compare their FIP's and $$ value's based on the stat WAR over the last 2 seasons:

Lowe
2007: 3.97 - $13.1 million
2008: 3.26 - $15.8 million

Perez
2007: 4.35 - $8.5 million
2008: 4.68 - $5.3 million

I'd prefer it if Omar Minaya signed Ben Sheets, as Sheets is the last dominating pitcher left on the market. This seems unlikely. Apparently Omar is a huge fan of Ollie, so I think the Mets will go after him hard. This is not a problem, as long as the Mets do not overpay for him and have $$ leftover to sign Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez. However, if the Mets eventually sign Ollie for anything resembling 4 years, $52 million I plan to buy the URL: http://www.fiya-minaya.com/ (think "fire Minaya").

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