Friday, December 5, 2008

Omar: Say NO to Jon Garland

This is the 2nd installment in my “SAY NO” series, the first subject being Jason Varitek. Support for signing Jon Garland has been floating around, and I’m worried. Worried that Omar Minaya will sign him for like 3 years, $40 million and declare it the big off-season starting pitching acquisition. Let’s take a look at his relevant numbers:

To summarize:
a) His already underwhelming K/9 and BB/9 have worsened since his breakout season of 2005, when he posted a K/9 of 4.68 and BB/9 of 1.91.
b) His FIP is overly generous because he gets hit pretty hard. An LD% greater than 20% is generally cause for concern.
c) To his credit, he eats innings and hasn’t lost anything off of his fastball. He is just 29 years old and stands 6’6” tall. He and 6’7” Mike Pelfrey could stand next to each other and look intimidating in the back row of the team photo.

Garland is regarded as a strong pitcher mainly because of his good W-L record and World Series ring. Do not be fooled. His peripheral stats are not impressive, and they seem to be getting worse each season. I’m not saying Garland is worthless – I wouldn’t mind seeing him as the Mets 5th starter for a 1 or 2 year deal at $8 million per. This is not likely though, considering the Carlos Silva contract last offseason and Oliver Perez’s projected deal. Of course this could all be moot as Garland might accept the Angels’ arbitration offer. Omar Minaya: Just say no to Garland (at the projected 3-4 years, $12 million per year).


Mitch said...

Amen, brother. That is a pathetic K/9 and horrible K/BB ratio. Scary thing is, on MetsBlog, Cerrone thought the Mets should sign Garland "and then" sign a back of the rotation starter to compete with Niese. Garland is a back of the rotation starter! Bring him in as a #4 or #5, I'm fine. If he's the best starting pitcher we acquire this offseason.... yikes.

I like the blog. It's great to find a Mets site with solid statistical analysis!

Mets Tailgate said...

Thanks for the kind words! Amazin' Avenue, MetsGeek, and Ted Berg on MetsBlog have some solid Mets statistical stuff as well.