Sunday, December 21, 2008

Mystery pitchers A, B, C & D

I got this idea from Dave at MetsGeek: I will present the 2008 statistics of 4 mystery starting pitchers who I think are similar in terms of the quality of innings they provide. A couple hints:
a) 3 of the 4 are free agents
b) 1 is reportedly available via trade
c) 1 is a Type A free agent and 1 is a Type B free agent
That's all the info I'll provide, so let's see how the 4 stacked up in 2008:


To summarize, these pitchers did not perform all that differently in 2008. Pitchers A and B tossed the most innings, Pitcher C gave up HR's at the lowest rate and Pitcher D gave up home runs at the highest rate. Now to reveal the mystery pitchers:

Pitcher A = Jon Garland, a 29 year-old Type B free agent I've covered here. He made $12 million in 2008 and will likely require a 2 year, $20-22 million commitment.
Pitcher B = Oliver Perez, a 27 year-old Type A lefty we're all familiar with. He made $6.5 million in 2008, is asking 5 years, $70 million (fat chance) and will likely require 4 years, $44-48 million.
Pitcher C = Jason Marquis, a 30 year-old available via trade who made $6.4 million in 2008 and is set to make $9.9 million in 2009.
Pitcher D = Tim Redding, a 31 year-old I've covered here. He made $1 million in 2008 and will probably require a 2 year, $7-8 million commitment.
There are other factors to consider here obviously (age of pitchers, career track record, lefty/righty, etc.), but the point is I think it would be a big mistake to sign Ollie or Garland when a guy like Redding is available. Redding is a step down from Ollie, but it is a small step. I wouldn't be opposed to trading for Marquis, provided the Cubs eat some salary. A Redding or Marquis acquisition should be coupled with a Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets signing. Ollie isn't worth more than $6 million a year.

3 comments:

Mitch said...

That's an extremely mediocre group of pitchers, judging by those stats. Not a FIP under 4.60 or a K/BB ratio even close to 2.0 amongst 'em. This does a good job of showing that maybe Ollie shouldn't be considered amongst the Lowe and Sheets options. He is clearly below their level. Redding apparently gives up a ton of homers.

Andrewdejo said...

I heard Robin Lunberg say today that he would rather have Otis Redding than Tim Redding which I thought was hysterical. I agree that Redding is not that much of a downgrade from Perez and is much more affordable. As a fan though does it matter about the cost effectiveness? Shouldn't you just want to get the best guys? Why not go after Lowe AND Sheets?

Mets Tailgate said...

Mitch,

I think the average fan thinks Lowe, Sheets and Ollie are on a similar level and the other guys are on a lower level. I think Omar is a smart guy, and realizes that Ollie is just not worth as much as he's asking. Redding gives up some bombs which is definitely a concern. But from a #5 starter, I'll take 180 IP and a 4.80-5.00 FIP. That would be an upgrade over what Pedro provided this season.

AD-

Obviously I'd like to see the Mets get Lowe AND Sheets. But that's just not happening. This isn't the Yankees and the unbreakable Bank of Steinbrenner - the Bank of Wilpon has been broken to the tune of $500,000,000 by that guy Madoff. Sheets and Lowe combined would set the Mets back around $32 million a season, which they just cannot take on. Especially if they want to make an upgrade in LF later on. I'll run the payroll numbers later, but they really can't afford both. If they get Lowe I'll throw a party.