The Cubs declined to offer arbitration to Type A free agent reliever Bob Howry. This means any team that signs him would not have to forfeit any draft picks. On the surface, Howry is a 35 year old in the twilight of a solid career who posted a 5.35 ERA in 2008. Digging deeper, he is actually just the kind of low-cost, undervalued, potential bounce-back pitcher the Mets could use in their bullpen.Let's look at his relevant statistics:
The reason for his poor ERA in 2008 is a combination of too many homeruns allowed and bad luck. The HR/9 is troublesome, but his HR/FB% was 3% higher than his career average. Citi Field projects as a pitcher's park, while Wrigley Field is a hitter's park, so the homers would likely decrease. His BABIP was absurdly high, especially considering his strong 17.9 LD%. I feel confident in saying that Bob Howry was quite unlucky in 2008. The average mph on his fastball dropped a tick, down to 91.2 mph from 92.3 mph in 2007. Additionally, he threw a slider 23.7% of the time, compared to just 9.7% in 2007 - perhaps this was the cause of his problems with the longball?
Not every member of a bullpen can be Francisco Rodriguez or Huston Street. Teams need low-cost guys like Howry who could bounce back to have a solid year. Look at the Phillies in recent years. They gambled on career journeyman J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey and it paid off in 2008. The same goes for the Rays with Grant Balfour, Trever Miller and J.P Howell. Check out this column by SNY's Ted Berg which further details how the playoff teams put together their strong bullpens. I'll give you a preview: they didn't do it by signing players to 4 year, $60 million deals. (side note: Berg astutely identifies Howry as an under-the-radar pickup as well, but I wasn't on board until the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration)
If the Mets sign Howry and he stinks in 2009, I'd begrudgingly admit I'm wrong. But it would likely be just a $2 million mistake, and wouldn't cost the Mets any draft picks.
Posts
0 comments:
Post a Comment