Monday, November 3, 2008

Postseason Awards: Rookie of the Year

Over the next few days, I'll post my picks for the major postseason awards: Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and MVP. Every sportswriter/blogger has weighed in by now with their picks, so I'll spare extensive analysis of each race. Keep in mind postseason performances are not weighed in the determination of these awards.

NL Rookie of the Year
1. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs - .285/.364/.504, 39.3 VORP, 7.0 WARP1
2. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds - .297/.368/.506, 34.0 VORP, 6.6 WARP1
3. Jair Jurrjens, P, Braves - 3.68 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 33.0 VORP
4. Hiroki Kuroda, P, Dodgers - 3.73 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 31.2 VORP
5. John Lannan, P, Nationals - 3.91 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 25.1 VORP
Honorable Mention - Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw

The listed stats are not my only basis for the ballot, and I don't consider VORP the ultimate statistic for determining most valuable players. However, my list coincidentally suggests this line of thinking. Soto vs. Votto was a tossup, but I gave Soto credit for playing a tougher position and being on a playoff team.

AL Rookie of the Year
1. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays - .272/.343/.531, 34.8 VORP, 8.1 WARP1
2. Joba Chamberlain, P, Yankees - 2.60 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 32.3 VORP
3. Mike Aviles, SS, Royals - .325/.354/.480, 35.0 VORP, 5.6 WARP1
4. Armando Galarraga, P, Tigers - 3.73 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 31.2 VORP
5. Alexei Ramirez, 2B, White Sox - .290/.317/.475, 20.7 VORP, 3.3 WARP1
Honorable Mention - Brad Ziegler, Greg Smith, Jose Arredondo

Longoria is the runaway winner here. Aviles had a solid season, but his .359 BABIP was quite lucky and unsustainable considering his 20.2 LD%. He didn't display much patience at the plate, as he drew just 18 walks. Look for him to regress in 2009. I didn't even realize Joba qualified as a rookie until I started looking at the stats.

Tomorrow: the Cy Young Award

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