Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Postseason Awards: Cy Young Award

Here's part 2 of my postseason awards ballot. It's also the only award where a Met has a legitimate shot. Again, these are not the only stats I used to determine my ballot.

NL Cy Young Award
1. Tim Lincecum, Giants - 223 IP, 2.62 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 72.5 VORP, 4.59 WPA
2. Johan Santana, Mets - 234.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 73.4 VORP, 4.08 WPA
3. Ryan Dempster, Cubs - 206.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 57.5 VORP, 3.54 WPA
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies - 227.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 56.3 VORP, 2.51 WPA
5. C.C. Sabathia, Brewers - 130.2 IP, 1.65 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 52.2 VORP, (don't know half season WPA)
Honorable Mention - Brad Lidge, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren

This was a coinflip. Lincecum's FIP and ERA were almost exactly the same, whereas Santana's FIP was almost a run higher than his ERA. This is due to the Mets' far superior defense (2nd in the league compared to the Giants who were 13th), and Santana's ability to strand runners. He led the majors in LOB%, at 82.6% of runners stranded. Maybe it's unfair to penalize Santana for having a far superior defense behind him. Put Lincecum in front of the Mets defense this year, and he might have had a historically great season. However, I did factor in Santana's incredible last start of the season, and performance in the pennant race. In the end, I chose Lincecum.

AL Cy Young Award
1. Cliff Lee, Indians - 223.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 75.0 VORP, 5.96 WPA
2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays - 243.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 71.5 VORP, 3.47 WPA
3. Jon Lester, Red Sox - 210.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 58.2 VORP, 3.04 WPA
4. Ervin Santana, Angels - 219 IP, 3.49 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 50.3 VORP, 3.48 WPA
5. John Danks, White Sox - 195 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 52.8 VORP, 2.99 WPA
Honorable Mention - Mike Mussina, Scott Baker, Joe Saunders

This was almost as tough a decision as the NL race. Lee pitched fewer innings, but was slightly more effective in those innings. If Halladay won I wouldn't call for a recount.

Tomorrow: the MVP Award

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