Tuesday, November 25, 2008

2009 Mets offense projection

The godfather of baseball statistics, Bill James, recently came out with his annual projections for major league players. The projections show up on each player's page at FanGraphs. Here is what James predicts for the Mets offense in 2009:

A few notes:
A) I included Damion Easley, despite the fact that I don't think he'll be a Met in '09. There was no projection for Argenis Reyes - I guess James realizes that he is not in the Mets' future plans. I omitted Marlon Anderson's projection as well.
B) I think Jose Reyes's projection is too low. I think Luis Castillo's is too high, but if he can produce like that in 2009, what a bonus.
C) James thinks David Wright will have another monster year, comparable to his outstanding 2007.
D) The Daniel Murphy projection is too generous. Also, I'd be very surprised if Murphy logs 456 AB's in 2009.

Is this a lazy post? Yes, but it gives us something fun to look at while no signings or trades are happening. Also, the total RsBI for these players is 770.


Mike Newman said...

That's a lot of OF AB's to go around. Endy/Evans/Tatis combine for over a full seasons worth of at bats. Then you have Church and Murphy at about 450 per with Beltran logging a full season. I know a few of those at bats will be at corner INF positions and pinch hitting but it seems like a half season's worth too many AB's from the outfield positions.

Mets Tailgate said...

Mike, cut me some slack, they're not my projections! I think it's just a rough projection, not intended to work out 100% with regards to AB's.

However, since it's not in my nature to make assumptions without actually finding evidence, let's take a look at the ABs:

Mets catchers, 2008: 563
Mets catchers, 2009: 572 (Schneider + Castro)

Mets 1B, 2008: 620
Mets 1B, 2009: 618 (Delgado + 60 Evans ABs)

Mets 2B, 2008: 625
Mets 2B, 2008: 628 (Castillo + 180 Easley ABs)

Mets 3B, 2008: 635
Mets 3B, 2009: 643 (Wright + 25 Tatis ABs)

Mets SS, 2008: 706
Mets SS, 2009: 709 (Reyes + 40 Easley ABs)

Mets OF, 2008: 1879
Mets OF, 2009: 1884 (Beltran + Church + 180 Chavez ABs + 376 Murphy ABs + 211 Tatis ABs + 80 Evans ABs)

Mets pinch hitters, 2008: 234
Mets pinch hitters, 2009: 239 (80 Murphy ABs + 54 Chavez ABs + 22 Evans ABs + 25 Tatis ABs + 58 Easley ABs)

As you can see, the projections are pretty reasonable. This is why it usually pays to actually crunch the numbers. Again, this is just a rough estimate by Bill James - I don't think he set out to ensure that exact number of PAs and ABs are satisfied when doing this.

Andrewdejo said...

David Wright is the man.