Friday, October 31, 2008

Javier Vazquez: Available and underrated

According to a report in the Chicago Sun-Times (via MLBTradeRumors), White Sox GM Kenny Williams's biggest priority this offseason is trading 32 year-old Javier Vazquez. Vazquez fell out of favor with White Sox manager/lunatic Ozzie Guillen towards the end of 2008 after pitching miserably in his final 3 starts. Williams reportedly seeks an infielder in return. Vazquez is owed $11.5 million a year from 2009-2010.

Based on this report, it seems as if the White Sox are willing to sell low on Vazquez. I would be in favor of his acquisition, assuming the Mets don't have to surrender Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez or some other comparable top prospect. Vazquez has been an underrated pitcher over the last 9 years or so, and had the bad luck of pitching for some terrible defensive clubs, namely the early 2000's Expos and the 2006-2008 White Sox. While his career ERA is 4.32, his career FIP, "fielding independent pitching" (what you would expect his ERA to be, based on K's, BB's, HR allowed) is 3.93. ERA as a stat is heavily influenced by the defense played behind a pitcher. FIP removes this factor. (Note: other defense independent stats include dERA and DICE)

Consider this excerpt from a post about Vazquez at FanGraphs by Eric Seidman:

"From 2000-2008, there are only six starting pitchers who made at least 190 starts, with a K/9 above 8.0 and a BB/9 below 3.0, and Vazquez has the highest inclusive ERA of them all at 4.11. For good measure, the others are: Pedro Martinez (2.99), Randy Johnson (3.25), Jake Peavy (3.25), Roger Clemens (3.34), and Josh Beckett (3.78)."

ERA is a useful stat, enabling one to gain a general understanding of a pitcher's success. However, peripheral stats and defense independent pitching stats should also be considered when determing a pitcher's expected future performance. The Mets are a great defensive club, as Baseball Prospectus lists their defensive efficiency in 2008 at 2nd in the NL and 6th in all of baseball. This fact would go a long way in improving Vazquez's ERA. To sum up, the Mets should look to make a play for Vazquez, as it appears he will be available for a fraction of what he's really worth.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

WTF HAPPENED WITH THE NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE? IS IT ME, OR DOES SHIT LOOKED FUCKED UP?

Mike Newman said...

I'm a big fan of Vazquez! He would be a solid #3 with the Mets. My only concern would be his struggles in New York his last go around. he seems to be much more comfortable out of the limelight.

Mets Tailgate said...

anonymous -

Thank you for the relevant, important question. Unfortunately I have no idea how to answer. If the Mets are moved to the NBA Eastern Conference, I will comment.

Mike -

Javi had his worst season in 2004 with the Yankees (he made his only All Star Game appearance that year then fell apart in the 2nd half). There would be a concern about his ability to perform in the New York limelight. However, he's been successful in Chicago, a market I'd put third to New York and Boston as far as media/fan scrutiny.

Additionally, when he came to the Yankees I think he was expected to take on the ace role. The other members of that staff included 35 year old Mike Mussina, 34 year old Jon Lieber, 39 year old Kevin brown, and Jose Contreras. If he came to the Mets, there would be no such expectation. I think this would help his adjustment.

Andrewdejo said...

Jose Contreras is somewhere between 37 and 67 years old.