Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Bob Howry signs with Giants
To counter this, the Mets made an earth-shattering signing of their own: re-signing Nelson Figueroa to a minor league deal.
Javier Vazquez traded to the Braves
Scratch Vazquez off my list of potential starters for the last 2 spots in the Mets rotation. Available pitchers who I'd like to see fill the spots are:
- Derek Lowe
- Randy Wolf
- Ben Sheets
- Andy Sonnanstine
- Nate Robertson
- Odalis Perez
....and....
- Randy Johnson
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
MetsGeek: Mets on the 2009 Hall of Fame Ballot
Jay Bell, SS/2B
David Cone, P
Rickey Henderson, OF
Jesse Orosco, P
Mo Vaughn, 1B
In other news, arbitration was not offered to Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, or Bobby Abreu, meaning if the Mets signed any of these players they would not forfeit draft picks. This should effectively end the Mets' interest in Raul Ibanez.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Bob Howry: A perfect fit for the Mets
The Cubs declined to offer arbitration to Type A free agent reliever Bob Howry. This means any team that signs him would not have to forfeit any draft picks. On the surface, Howry is a 35 year old in the twilight of a solid career who posted a 5.35 ERA in 2008. Digging deeper, he is actually just the kind of low-cost, undervalued, potential bounce-back pitcher the Mets could use in their bullpen.Let's look at his relevant statistics:
The reason for his poor ERA in 2008 is a combination of too many homeruns allowed and bad luck. The HR/9 is troublesome, but his HR/FB% was 3% higher than his career average. Citi Field projects as a pitcher's park, while Wrigley Field is a hitter's park, so the homers would likely decrease. His BABIP was absurdly high, especially considering his strong 17.9 LD%. I feel confident in saying that Bob Howry was quite unlucky in 2008. The average mph on his fastball dropped a tick, down to 91.2 mph from 92.3 mph in 2007. Additionally, he threw a slider 23.7% of the time, compared to just 9.7% in 2007 - perhaps this was the cause of his problems with the longball?
Not every member of a bullpen can be Francisco Rodriguez or Huston Street. Teams need low-cost guys like Howry who could bounce back to have a solid year. Look at the Phillies in recent years. They gambled on career journeyman J.C. Romero, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey and it paid off in 2008. The same goes for the Rays with Grant Balfour, Trever Miller and J.P Howell. Check out this column by SNY's Ted Berg which further details how the playoff teams put together their strong bullpens. I'll give you a preview: they didn't do it by signing players to 4 year, $60 million deals. (side note: Berg astutely identifies Howry as an under-the-radar pickup as well, but I wasn't on board until the Cubs declined to offer him arbitration)
If the Mets sign Howry and he stinks in 2009, I'd begrudgingly admit I'm wrong. But it would likely be just a $2 million mistake, and wouldn't cost the Mets any draft picks.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Raul Ibanez: An older and left-handed version of Pat Burrell
I'm a little late to the game here, as other Mets blogs have covered the Mets' strong interest in signing Raul Ibanez. The general consensus is that it really does not make sense to go after him to play LF. (Side note: About 2 months ago, I was in favor of signing him, but I changed my mind after doing some more research).These are the facts:
1) Ibanez is 36 and bats left-handed. The Mets have a greater need for righties.
2) He's durable and consistent - put him down for 150 games and a .285/.350/.480 line.
3) He is awful defensively (4th worst LF in baseball from '06-'08)
4) Factoring offense and defense, he was the 14th best LF in baseball in 2008, behind luminaries like David Dejesus and Willie Harris.
I'm fine with the LF platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in 2009. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are free agents next off-season; wait until then to find a long term solution for the position. However, if the Mets are set on signing a poor-fielding LF for about a 3-year deal this offseason, why not go after right-handed Pat Burrell? Take a look at how they stacked up in 2008:
To recap:
1) They were almost exactly the same player, and their career numbers are very similar.
2) Burrell is younger and bats right-handed.
3) Burrell will likely be pricier, but not so much that he would break the bank.
Let me make it clear - I'm not advocating signing "Pat the Bat". I'm simply saying that if the Mets decide to sign a LF, they should go after Burrell instead of Ibanez.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Top 10: Mets named in the Mitchell Report
The Mitchell Report was released in December 2007, implicating 89 current and former players who allegedly used performance enhancing drugs. It's not surprising that a fair amount of these 89 have ties to the Mets, as former Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski was instrumental in the distribution of PED's to players. I present the top 10 Mets named in the Mitchell Report, based on overall career performance and performance for the Mets:10. Guillermo Mota
Mota was phenomenal down the stretch for the 2006 Mets (18 IP, 1.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I think we now know why - he was suspended for 50 games to start the 2007 season after testing positive for PED's.
9. Scott Schoeneweis
Current public enemy #1 or #2 for Met fans, Schoeneweis reportedly used PED's to help heal cancer. He had an awful 2007 season, but his 2008 was really not bad. He failed in a couple big spots, which is what sticks in most fans' memories. However, he was great against lefties, holding them to a .520 OPS against.
8. David Segui
Segui only played 125 games for the Mets, but enjoyed a solid 15 year career. He retired with a career OPS+ of 110, and was capable in the field.
7. Matt Franco
Along with Lenny Harris (and Marlon Anderson for 2 months in 2007), Franco is remembered as one of the best pinch-hitters in recent Mets history. He knew how to draw walks, and his OBP was usually 100 points higher than his BA. His biggest Met moment was hitting the game winning single off Mariano Rivera in a Subway Series game in 1999.
6. Todd Pratt
"Tank" was a gigantic human being, and his inclusion in the Report might explain why. He was a solid backup to Mike Piazza, and his series-ending homer against the Diamondbacks in the 1999 NLDS will never be forgotten.
5. Paul LoDuca
Loduca posted a SLG of .543 in 2001, then never produced higher than .428 after that. I'd say that's a telltale sign of PED use. I have favorable memories of LoDuca, and his 2006 was strong for a catcher. Mothers, lock up your teenage daughters when Paulie is in town...
4. Mike Stanton
For whatever reason, I had negative feelings about Stanton's performance as a Met. However, I looked up his stats and found his 2004 season in Flushing wasn't half bad. He'll be remembered for the 3 rings he won with the Yankees.
3. Mo Vaughn
I don't know what Steve Phillips was thinking when he traded for Vaughn before the 2002 season. Fat and slow first baseman do not age well, and Vaughn came to the Mets at age 34. However, from 1993-1998 he was one of the top 10 best hitters in baseball.
2. Lenny Dykstra
Dykstra was one of my favorite players, even on the Phillies. Learning of his probable PED use tarnished my image of him. I'm not old enough to have any conscious recollection of his days with the Mets, but I've watched the 1986 Mets video enough times to tell you how valuable he was to that team. His 1993 season with the Phillies was truly remarkable - .305/.420/.482 with 37 stolen bases.
1. Todd Hundley
Hundley is tied with Carlos Beltran for the club single-season HR record, with 41. The difference is, Beltran's 41 were likely hit without the aid of steroids. Hundley is a poster child of the steroid era - a light hitting catcher who all of a sudden mashes 71 homers over 2 seasons, and retires at age 34 due to injury.
Honorable Mention: Paul Byrd, Mark Carreon, Chris Donnels, Josias Manzanillo, Fernando Vina
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
2009 Mets offense projection
A few notes:
A) I included Damion Easley, despite the fact that I don't think he'll be a Met in '09. There was no projection for Argenis Reyes - I guess James realizes that he is not in the Mets' future plans. I omitted Marlon Anderson's projection as well.
B) I think Jose Reyes's projection is too low. I think Luis Castillo's is too high, but if he can produce like that in 2009, what a bonus.
C) James thinks David Wright will have another monster year, comparable to his outstanding 2007.
D) The Daniel Murphy projection is too generous. Also, I'd be very surprised if Murphy logs 456 AB's in 2009.
Is this a lazy post? Yes, but it gives us something fun to look at while no signings or trades are happening. Also, the total RsBI for these players is 770.
Monday, November 24, 2008
MetsGeek column: Available and underrated starting pitchers
While I'm glad Omar Minaya is being patient this offseason (compared to last year's trigger-happy Luis Castillo signing on Nov. 19), it's frustrating that nothing is happening. It's like the movie "Jarhead" - lots of waiting, not much action.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Omar: Say NO to Jason Varitek
I feel the need to shoot down one Mets offseason rumor. Jon Heyman wrote in his offseason blog:"Should the Mets find a deal for their catchers, longtime Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek, a free agent, could be a possibility for them. Mets GM Omar Minaya has always liked Ivan Rodriguez, but it isn't known whether they'd consider I-Rod, as well."
First off, how worthless is the sentence about Rodriguez? It adds nothing. He might as well write: "Omar Minaya has always liked sushi, but it isn't known if he'd consider it for dinner tonight." Second, if the Mets trade 32 year-old Brian Schneider or 32 year-old Ramon Castro and sign 36 year-old Jason Varitek, I might just give up. Here are some relevant stats:
There is no logical reason to do this. Schneider is set to make $5 million each of the next 2 seasons, and Castro costs $2.5 million next year. Varitek would likely cost more than that. Why trade a guy, only to replace him with a worse, more expensive player? Last time I checked, old catchers like Varitek don't often experience a career renaissance in their late 30's. The Mets got league average production from the catcher position this year. There are other areas to worry about.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Mets eligible to appear on the 2009 Hall of Fame ballot
Voting results for the 2009 class of the Baseball Hall of Fame won't be released until January, but because this is a slow period in Mets-land, I took a look at former Metropolitans who are eligible this year. It turns out there are quite a few, each with a varying length of Mets tenure and impact. The full list is linked here. A screening committee weeds out guys who have no shot at induction. The final list of players on the actual ballot will be much shorter. Here are your eligible former Mets:- Jay Bell
- Mike Bordick
- David Cone
- Rickey Henderson
- Todd Hundley
- Graeme Lloyd
- Pat Mahomes
- Jesse Orosco (still amazing how long he played for)
- Craig Paquette
- Rick Reed
- Rich Rodriguez
- Mo Vaughn
Rickey is the only one on this who is a no-doubt first balloter. I love to see the results of HOF voting, because there is always some ridiculous voter who gives the likes of Bell a vote. For instance, last year Chuck Knoblauch, Shawon Dunston and Todd Stottlemyre received votes. I'll probably post closer to the announcement of inductees regarding justification for my personal HOF ballot, but I would vote for the following players:
- Bert Blyleven
- Rickey Henderson
- Tim Raines
- Alan Trammell
The curious case of Aaron Heilman
Aaron Heilman has made it clear that he wants to be a starting pitcher. I believe he has earned the chance to start, but the Mets do not see him as a starter. I fully support trading him to a team which would give him a chance to start, especially if it means getting some bullpen help in return. Today on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone writes:"Last night on SNY’s Mets Hot Stove, SI.com’s Jon Heyman again referenced Heilman’s ‘high-back elbow,’ which Mets officials believe could lead to injury if he throws more than 100 innings in a season, similar to Mark Prior."
Heilman has had the same delivery as long as I can remember. I'm assuming he had the same delivery in college. Now take a look at his IP during the time he was a starter:
1999: 109 IP (sophomore year at Notre Dame)
2000: 103 IP (junior year)
2001: 152.1 IP (senior year and A ball)
2002: 146 IP (between AA and AAA)
2003: 159.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2004: 179.2 IP (between AAA and the majors)
2005: 108 IP (majors)
As far as I can tell, Heilman has never had arm trouble or made a trip to the DL. I'll accept the Mets saying they don't see him as a starter because he sucks or they don't think his stuff is conducive to starting, but please don't try to justify it by saying he'll get injured if he pitches more than 100 innings. This is an insult to Heilman. Additionally, take a look at his stats his senior year at ND:
15-0, 114 IP, 1.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB, 0.24 HR/9..... WOW.
(Note: I'm not presenting his college stats as support for his inclusion in the Mets rotation. I am just awed by those numbers)
***EDIT***: Eric Simon at Amazin' Avenue pointed out that I'm wrong about Heilman's delivery never changing - good catch. His current delivery is the same as the one he used in college and the early part of his Mets career. He switched to a more over-the-top delivery in the minors, but reverted back to his college mechanics in 2005.
***EDIT #2***: I found an old scouting report on Heilman from 2002, when he had the same delivery as he does today. It's linked here. Here's what the scouts had to say about Heilman:
"Strengths: His three-quarters delivery is easy and fluid, reducing the stress on his arm, a key trait for a pitcher who will be counted upon to eat innings at higher levels."
Assuming this scouting report is accurate, Heilman's delivery would not make him an injury risk if he became a starter. I honestly don't know what Jon Heyman is talking about, and he has been peddling this "high elbow injury" story about Heilman for awhile now.
George Steinbrenner's reign ends: Costanza relieved
I'm sad to see the George Steinbrenner era end, not so much because I'll miss him, but because I still miss the great caricature of him Larry David and Jerry Seinfeld created on the show "Seinfeld". He, along with Jackie Chiles, was probably my favorite minor character on the show. So I present YouTube compilations of every Steinbrenner appearance on the show. Each is 10 minutes long, FYI.Part 1 is linked here.
Part 2 is linked here.
"We must get the calzones George!"
"You know as painful as it is I had to let a few people go over the years. Yogi Berra, Lou Pinella, Bucky Dent, Billy Martin, Dallas Green, Dick Howser, Bill Virdon, Billy Martin, Scott Marrow, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin.."
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The final word on MVP voting, from the great Joe Posnanski
"And I know that Boz understands that Pujols is a much better player because he spends the next paragraph pointing out that, yes, Howard can’t field, and yes Pujols outhit him, and yes Howard strikes out a lot while Pujols walks a lot. He knows this to be true. But you know the Seinfeld line about how impressed he is that the Chinese are sticking with chopsticks (”Oh, they’ve seen he fork. They don’t care. They’re sticking with the chopsticks”). Well, Boz is sticking with those RBIs"
Brilliant. Another gem:
"King Kaufman over at Salon wrote something the other day that I really liked. He wrote that the methodology for some voters seems to be: “Figure out who you like as MVP, then fashion the current year’s definition of ‘valuable’ to fit.”
Also brilliant, although Joe himself didn't come up with the line.
I won't dive too deeply into specifics of this year's crop of horrible awards ballots, because it's been done ad nauseum elsewhere. Click here, here, and here if you'd like to read some well-written stuff that criticizes the voting. Suffice it to say that, for once, the voters got the award winners right.
Additionally, Check out Beyond the Boxscore's list of the top 50 position players in baseball this year, factoring in offense, defense, and position. Notice something? Howard is nowhere to be found. Wow.
***EDIT***: At Fangraphs, Check out Eric Seidman's well thought and objective (Eric is a Phillies fan) argument why Howard should not have sniffed the MVP Award this year.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Revised projected Mets 2009 roster
Rotation (5)
1 - Johan Santana
2 - Derek Lowe
3 - Mike Pelfrey
4 - John Maine
5 - Jon Niese/Odalis Perez/Brad Penny/Javier Vazquez (if Vazquez can be acquired via trade, he would be #3 in this rotation)
Bullpen (7)
CL - Brian Fuentes or Francisco Rodriguez
Juan Cruz or Huston Street
Pedro Feliciano
Bobby Parnell or Bob Howry
Scott Schoeneweis
Joe Smith
Brian Stokes
Starting Lineup (8)
Jose Reyes, SS
Carlos Beltran, CF
David Wright, 3B
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Fernando Tatis, LF
Ryan Church, RF
Brian Schneider, C
Luis Castillo, 2B (let the outrage begin - this is assuming the Mets don't want Murphy playing 2B)
Bench (5)
Daniel Murphy, LF/2B (platooned with Tatis in LF)
Endy Chavez, OF
Ramon Castro, C
Nick Evans, OF/1B
Felipe Lopez/Cesar Izturis, 2B/SS
Top 10: Best offensive seasons in Mets history
In other news, thank goodness Albert Pujols won the MVP yesterday. The voters are 5 for 5 so far - AL MVP is announced today. I'm pulling for Joe Mauer, but if Dustin Pedroia or Kevin Youkilis wins I'm OK with it.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The difference between the Mets and Phillies in 2008
This post is about 1.5 months too late. David Wright and Jose Reyes could've used it when everyone wanted their heads on a platter following the final game of the season. I think calmer heads have prevailed, and Met fans generally realize that trading one of the "core" (Wright, Reyes, and Carlos Beltran) would be unnecessary and stupid. I present the hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching stats for the Mets and Phillies in 2008. The Phillies postseason stats are not counted:To summarize:
a) The Mets and Phillies scored the exact same number of runs.
b) The Mets starting pitchers were slightly better than the Phils', and pitched a few more innings.
c) The Phils' bullpen was far superior to the Mets' bullpen.
The Phillies had a great bullpen, made the playoffs, and won the World Series. They were praised as "gritty" and "determined" and whatever other meaningless adjective you want use. The Mets had a garbage bullpen and missed the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. They were branded "choke artists" and "un-clutch" and "TRADE REYES HE DANCES TOO MUCH OMG OMG" and "TRADE WRIGHT HE ISN'T CLUTCH THIS TEAM NEEDS A SHAKEUP."
This all said - go out and improve that pitching staff Omar Minaya!
Sunday, November 16, 2008
K-Rod rumored to be in NY; MetsBlog disses the reporting newspaper
"...I hate when this happens…time and time again, reports from foreign newspapers indicate items that never come true, when dealing with the baseball rumor mill…yet, i have to post them, because you just never know.."
Look, I love MetsBlog, and it has done a great job of keeping track of all the Mets rumors this offseason. I posted saying as much last week. But to make a statement like this is to imply that the rumors provided by Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, etc. are 100% accurate simply because they are from United States publications. Why should this rumor be discounted just because it's from a "foreign" newspaper? There are a myriad examples of the mainstream UNITED STATES media being totally wrong or providing conflicting reports. Off the top of my head, I was able to come up with the following:
1) Hours before the Mitchell Report is released, NBC posts a list of players implicated in the report (including Albert Pujols and Jeff Bagwell) which turns out to be completely false.
2) Chris Mortensen of ESPN says that the Buccaneers are going to acquire Brett Favre. The next day, Favre is traded to the Jets. Mort is generally wrong on his "breaking stories."
3) My personal favorite, from MLBTradeRumors on Nov. 5th:
9:42am: According to Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune, the White Sox are aggressively shopping Javier Vazquez.
8:43pm: Ken Davidoff says the White Sox are not anxious to unload Vazquez.
The lesson in all of this is that these hot stove rumors should not be treated as anything but rumors. I feel like many fail to grasp this idea. Additionally, it is possible that some Met fans and blog readers are Venezuelan, and look to "El Universal" for their news. Heck, Johan Santana and Endy Chavez are Venezuelan. It can't make them feel too good to read that their country's newspaper (especially a reputable one that's been around since 1909) is being discredited simply for being foreign. Rant over.
***EDIT***: This post was not meant as an indictment of MetsBlog - I just needed to vent a little about the frustrating and annoying rumor mill. Plus it's Sunday night and I don't want the weekend to be over.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The importance of 0-1 vs. 1-0 counts
With the exception of Nelson Figueroa, it appears there is a decent correlation between F-Strike % and BB/9. This demonstrates something we've all heard since Little League - the importance of throwing a first pitch strike. It's a pretty obvious concept, but I think it's interesting to see the statistics that support it.
Friday, November 14, 2008
RIP Fire Joe Morgan (2005-2008)
If I had to choose between "The Office" (the great TV show Schur writes for and executive produces) and FJM, I think I would choose FJM. Unfortunately for us, there is infinitely more money to be made in producing one of the most popular TV shows than writing for a widely read but non-revenue-generating blog.
Nonetheless, Happy Friday.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Minor griping - NL Cy Young Award
Times are slow in Mets universe, but I can never pass up a chance to gripe at the BBWAA (the group of writers that votes on postseason awards) for their poor award voting. Yesterday, they rightfully voted Tim Lincecum the NL Cy Young winner. My ridiculously minor and borderline pointless complaint is with who came in 2nd and 3rd in the voting. Take a look at the stats of the following two mystery players:X: 226.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.82 K/BB, 0.52 HR/9, 139 ERA+
Y: 234.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.27 K/BB, 0.88 HR/9, 166 ERA+
Somehow, player X finished 2nd and player Y finished 3rd. If you haven't guessed by now, player X is Brandon Webb and player Y is our own Johan Santana. I tried not to cherrypick my stats too much here, but these are some of the major stats I look at when evaluating pitchers. The only difference between these two was their meaningless W-L records: Webb went 22-7 while Santana went 16-7. It's nice to see some progress here, evidenced by Lincecum taking down the award. However, these voters really have to stop being blinded by W-L record. It's pitiful.
The two NY writers who voted were David Lennon of Newsday and Adam Rubin of the Daily News. Lennon's intelligent and well researched ballot went:
1. Santana
2. Lincecum
3. Brad Lidge
Rubin's questionable ballot omitted Santana completely:
1. Lincecum
2. Webb(!!!!!!!!)
3. Lidge
Seriously Adam, your Daily News page says you're a graduate of the Wharton School of Business at UPenn, and you really think Brandon Webb and Brad Lidge were more deserving of the Cy Young Award than Johan Santana, the guy who led the league in IP and ERA? Really?! Hopefully you're not voting again anytime in the near future.
